Posted:
#1
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Don't let the book set the number
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Buy out weigh-in
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Posted:
#3
I'm not sure I understand the bet. You win the bet if Buffalo and Dallas and New Orleans all make the postseason?
If so, you have to look at what happens long term.
In order for the Saints to make the playoffs, they have to defeat the Falcons, and the Bucs have to lose to the Panthers.
(Actually, there are other ways for the Saints to make the playoffs. For example, they can win and the Packers lose or tie plus the Seahawks lose or tie. However, we can ignore these other ways for the moment.)
The Saints are favored by about 4. This corresponds to a winning percentage of about 63%.
https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/
The Panthers are underdogs by about 5 points. This corresponds to a winning percentage of about 25%.
The chances of both events happening are the probability of the two individual events.
.63 x .25 is roughly 16%.
16% of the time you will win $1,596, for a total of $25,536.
84% of the time you will lose $11, for a total loss of -$924.
Your net for these 100 events is $26,460. This $26,460 is what you can expect if you let the bet stand, and played it out 100 times. (Naturally, you can adjust the winning percentages a tiny bit, if you don't feel they are accurate.)
OR, it appears you can take the $156 buyout offer right now, for a total of $15,600. $156 x 100 = $15,600)
This is what you can expect if you take the buyout, all 100 times.
As you can see, the buyout offered to you is far short of what you would receive long term.
Many posters here, like the1toturn2, will tell you to take the "guaranteed" money. Taking "guaranteed money" is not always a smart move and I can prove it with very simple examples. You have to think long term.
(My apologies if my paragraphs are lost when I post this. I still am having a formatting problem when posting.)
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Posted:
#5
The buyout is a type of hedging. If you want to maximize your long-term profits, do NOT hedge.
Let's say your chosen football team, a team that was favored by just a single point, is leading by ten points with just a few minutes left to go in the game. If they cover the spread, which it look like they will almost certainly do, you win $1,000.00! (Your risk was $550.00.)
I come along and offer to buy your ticket from you, right now, for $700. Do you sell it to me?
If your answer is no, they why not? I'm offering you guaranteed money! There's still a few minutes left to play! Anything could still happen in this game!
Well, of course you shouldn't sell it to me or anyone else. At least not for $700. The reason is simple - that ticket, at this moment in time, is worth much more than $700.00. Depending upon exact game scenario (exactly how much time is left and who has the ball), that ticket is probably worth closer to to $950.
This is EXACTLY what happens when you hedge. You sell something for less than what it's worth. You normally do NOT want to do this, whether you're selling a car or a house or whatever.
Hedging comes at a price and YOU have to pay that price.
You will make more money in a very short period of time if you never hedge. To put it another way, if you and I bet on the same teams/games, and you hedge whenever you can and I never hedge, I will very soon have more money than you. Maybe not that weekend... maybe not that month... but very soon.
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Posted:
#7
Ah. Division winners. (And not just making the playoffs.) Thanks.
Either way, you really should do the math. Estimate the overall probability of the event occurring. Give it an actual percentage, even though you don't see it happening. (Few people "saw" the Eagles losing at home to the Cardinals this past weekend, for example, but it happened.)
After estimating the probability of the event, determine how much it will cost you to accept the buyout.
I suspect you will be selling your ticket at a value far below what its true value is. You don't want to do that. If you do that regularly, you will not be a winner.
Oh, sure you might be a winner short term, but that's not the goal. You want to be a winner year in and year out, not just on any particular weekend.
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Posted:
#9
@Ed-Collins
@unplucked_gem
I agree, mostly. 
The math is good and the disadvantage longterm is correct.
I very rarely do parlays. I always tell folks to not hedge, unless something has changed from when you first felt it was a good play. For example, if a team's starting quarterback is out. Or, in this example, if your read on a team's success for the year has been wrong and you are simply lucky to be able to buy out.
Or if, say, NO was playing a SF or BLT team on the road that also needed to win. Then if NO would be a -10/-14 point underdog. You would have to buy out or hedge in some way.
The problem with the 'longterm' disadvantage here is that it is one stand-alone example, I assume.
It is not like you are doing one of these a day or one a week. This is one that you did for the entire season. So, in order to realize an accurate profit this would have to be played out over many times and it is not going to be played out but once.
BUF still has some work in front of them. CAR may not beat TB. But ATL could very likely beat NO -- that is a huge rivalry.
EVEN if NO beats ATL they NEED TB to lose. So, when you figure the math, you have to factor that likelihood in as well. Then you will have to factor in the likelihood of BUF winning AND if they LOSE you have to factor in PIT NOT winning AND/OR JAX NOT winning AND/OR IND to TIE. Then with NO you have to factor in IF TB wins, you then need to factor in GB NOT winning AND SEA NOT winning.
As it is right now, BUF has a 94% chance to make it and NO has a 31% chance to make it. So, theoretically, you could say you have a 29% chance of winning the parlay.
At the beginning of the season BUF had a 70%, DAL a 68%, and NO a 64% chance to make the playoffs. In theory, you had about a 30% to win the parlay. So, now you are very slightly less likely to win it at this point. But IF you had played just a BUF/NO parlay you would have been about 45% likely to win with those two. BUT now you are a good bit down from that on just those two teams.
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Posted:
#10
Everyone has a different bankroll and a different acceptance of risk.
But if you look at it like day-trading stocks or something like that -- you would hedge. Because you always want to have a trailing stop in place to limit your loss and to make sure the trade is profitable. BUT you also will have a limit order in place that goes up as the stock price goes up, in order to maximize your profit.
With a parlay buyout you are only able to 'limit your loss' or 'lock in a profit' because you cannot make more than the original amount to be owed on the parlay -- unless there is a middling opportunity.
So, you could easily let the parlay play out and get some ideal alternate line on NO. Or hope for a live bet opportunity.
Even IF the ONLY thing you were concerned about was NO losing to ATL. YOU could just bet the buyout + the original bet on ATL ML. Say $175 on ATL. Then if you hit the parlay you only lose the $175 and make $1421. Or you make the $175 - $11 for a profit of $164. BUT you still would have to worry about the BUF situation.
I realize you only get to make these parlays once a year on teams making the playoffs. But it would be nice to hit it and collect and then you can say you were right all along with a nice winner!
I also understand wanting to make sure you make some profit after getting 16 games into the season with only 1 game to go. In other words you are 94% of the way to collecting with a week to go. Anyone would hate to lose out with one game left. IT is not like you are taking a buyout with 4 games left.
I understand both sides. But like I said -- everyone is different. At some point the math does not matter as much as knowing you can make some money.
But good luck with whatever you decide to do and keep us posted so we can root for you!
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Posted:
#11
@unplucked_gem
Oh. I posted my stuff before I saw division winners.
@Ed-Collins is correct that you need to look at it with the math. Of course, they are buying you out to their advantage. But IF you think TB will mostly win and NO needs that -- then you have to consider what you be happiest with. But now the BUF NEEDING to win ALSO is way more important than I thought. So, you have to factor in whether you want to -- play MIA and ATL -- or buyout -- OR LET IT RIDE BABY!
For sure, you would know that you leave money on the table --longterm. BUT you would have extra money in your pocket now.
Either way good luck!
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