CAPERS vs. LeBEAU & a Super Bowl 45 Prediction

Dom Capers was Defensive Coordinator for the Steelers from ‘92 to ‘94 and from my research, I learned that Dick LeBeau was the Steelers DB Coach. LeBeau assumed Defensive Coordinator status at Pittsburgh in ‘95 and holding it for ‘96 before going to Cinncy for six years. He became coordinator when Dom Capers left in ’94 to coach the Panthers.

The highlight of Capers’ tenure was taking a Panther team from 4^th in the NFC West to #1 in year one and eventually losing to the Packers in the NFC Championship game – that’s the year the Pack beat Big Tuna and the Patriots in Super Bowl 31. Memorable Packers in that game; Brett Favre, Andre Rison, Reggie White and Desmond Howard.

Back to the Capers/LeBeau profile, this period of ‘92 forward is regarded as the beginning of the zone blitz philosophy – invented together in Pittsburgh in the mid 90’s and now employed by both the 2010 versions of the Packers and Steelers.

There is a chess match brewing tomorrow and I like the Packers personnel and confidence coming in. Mathews, Raji, Hawk, Woodson, Collins, Williams and Shields. That is seven deep and I mean deep.

I welcome a Steeler researcher/backer who can name seven defensive players in Pittsburgh playing at the level of those seven Cheesehead guys. I am not taking anything away from the Pittsburgh Defense. I rode the Steelers in both their playoff wins this year. as well as riding the Packers in all three. I am 8-1 in the playoffs this year, documented in my Covers files, by the way. Choosing between these two money to the bank teams is very, very difficult and big steam plays are not advised. To add to the mystery, it is a neutral field and fast track.

My point is this – banking your play on LeBeau’s genius or the Steeler’s defensive dominance, just doesn’t match with reality. For example, take Dom Capers record into mind, as well as being the co-author of the zone blitz that both teams play:

Green Bay's defensive ranking in his first year improved to second in the league in 2009, from 21st in the league in 2008.

In spite of being decimated by injuries in the 2010 season, Capers' defense got even better. The defensive unit ranked 2nd in Scoring Defense, 5th in Total Defense, 2nd in Interceptions, 2nd in Sacks, and 1st in Opposing Quarterback Passer Rating.

I am not sure how much a factor the shared knowledge pool here between LeBeau and Capers will be. It speaks to just how tight these two teams are the cap right now. The major difference I see is Troy Polamalu is not 100%. I watched him carefully in the Jet game. And the kid being out at Center is a huge blow. The backup up is shaky, Doug Legursky, who struggled with snaps in the 24-19 victory over the Jets.

One of the botched exchanges led to Big Ben having to fall on the ball in the end zone for a safety in the fourth quarter. Legursky will also be tasked with blocking Green Bay's star defensive tackle B.J. Raji.

I think Green Bay comes in hotter, winners of five straight must-wins, and four on the road against top NFC teams. Pittsburgh comes in hot, too. Winning both (at home however) and really didn’t play well in the 1^st half of the Baltimore game and in the 2^nd half of the Jet game. But they won. And frankly, the Packers 2^nd half’s against the Eagles and Bears were not exactly works of art either.

If you know the Pack as well as I do, you know the weakness is getting up quick and letting the opponent back in the game while Capers fiddles with his zone packages in a preservation mode.

Probably the best example of that was when the kid from Chicago hit the flat deep pass to draw closer and Woodson and Collins had it played perfectly, only to look at each other and decide who was going to pound this Bear receiver into Moline and they ended up backing off, probably out of respect and maybe fear of a penalty, meanwhile the little Cubbie goes for six and everyone remembers what happened after that. But like the Steelers against the Jets and the Ravens, they held on for the W and another cover.

If anything, I see a close game here, low scoring to start, probably not more than seven to ten points separating either team. Then, the 2^nd half will have some fireworks.

I see the winning team getting 28 or 31 and the loser 21 to 24.

I am calling it Packers 31, Steelers 23. Rodgers will be MVP. Tails on the coin Flip. I’m taking Fergie for a wardrobe malfunction at +1200 (just kidding on that one).

Just my two cents on what should be a great football Sunday.

Nice write-up veeman, if not a little long-winded (but who am I to talk, right? heh heh heh)... but over the past 4-5 seasons, is there ANYONE better at making the necessary defensive halftime adjustments than DICK LEBEAU?!?  Whatever is "working" for Green Bay in the 1stH won't be working for them in the 2ndH if Lebeau's history is any guide. And as long as we're talking "reality", I have a few points to make... just hear me out...

With regard to Polamalu and the health of his heel, just know that he's had 2 weeks in a hyperbaric chamber to speed healing, not to mention additional intensive re-hab, and if that's not enough I fully expect him to "take the needle" if need be on Sunday. Troy is a difference-maker on D, his sideline-to-sideline coverage and ability to anticipate/jump routes over the middle and pick off tipped or batted balls at the line may very well be a key to Pittsburgh stalling drives/creating timely turnovers/making the "big" play... I'm not worried about #43's health in this instance, his threshhold for pain is high just like all of his Pacific-Islander/Somoan brothers, and he wouldn't miss this one for the world. Troy will be on the field and playing at a high level imho, being sure to keep everything IN FRONT of him, per usual, as will Ike, McFadden, and Clark for that matter. Simply think "discipline"...

Next, I'd like to touch on the unfortunate loss of rookie All-Pro C M.Pouncey on Pittsburgh's O-line; while his absence might scare some into thinking that the Steelers just won't be able to protect Big Ben adequately enough for him to make his throws/reads in a timely manner, just know that Legursky has had 2 weeks to review the playbook & snap-counts etc, so I am not worried about the C-to-QB exchange at all; Legursky is himself a professional too and would likely be starting for many NFL teams. Moreover, Pouncey's loss will more or less force Pittsburgh to do what they do best historically --- RUN the FOOTBALL. Considering Green Bay's woeful stat of allowing 4.7 yards per carry this season, I don't see why Pittsburgh won't take FULL advantage of the Packers' deficiency in this area --- which also opens up play-action pass downfield to speedster Wallace should Green bay become complacent, expecting the run on so-called "running" downs... As good a D-Coordinater as Capers is, he won't be on the field trying to slow down/tackle the brute that is Rashard Mendenhall, a downhill runner who has since come of age and into his own since the Steelers' last SB victory sgainst AZ, a team that was most proficient vs the run in fact. In a nutshell, Pouncey's loss may very well be Legursky's gain and a blessing in disguise, as he won't be asked to pass-block for even a majority of Pittsburgh's offensive plays, he will instead be asked to RUN-BLOCK, and this should keep him fresh along with the rest of PITT's admittedly short-handed O-line.

Finally, one cannot discount Pittsburgh's OWN pass-rush, which is as formidable as their ability to stop the run. Now, Green Bay's own struggles to effectively run the football (since the loss of Ryan Grant early in the season) are well-documented... some here backing the Pack are calling upon the use of misdirection, delayed draws, or screens to Brandon Jackson in an effort to slow down Harrison & co and the Steel Curtain's own pass-rush --- but I just don't see it materializing on a consistent enough basis, especially if Green bay is playing catch-up. Hell, even when BJax ran all over my Redskins early in the season to the tune of 150+ combined yds, the packers STILL came up short, losing yet another close game.

On the whole, the team that is better at both running the football AND stopping the run is... (drumroll plz) Blitzburgh --- IN SPADES, my friend. The Steelers' unparallelled aptitude in these departments is part coaching, part personel, but by running often on offense, I expect Pittsburgh to shorten the game and in turn limit ARodg's opportunities with the ball, OWNING the clock battle. And by relegating the Packer offense to their true one-dimensional identity (passing, obviously) I believe that Pittsburgh has the athletes, wisdom, and skill to create their own chances for turnovers, 3-and-outs, but ultimately punts. And should the Steelers succeed in knocking ARodg on his ass often enough -- or even knock him OUT of the game, then all of Green Bay's hopes are dashed completely, and it's all over but the cryin'... without Rodgers under center, Green Bay is just another NFC "also-ran" I think you'll agree...

GL regardless my friend

Yeah, we can go on and on about foots, the two of us, can't we?

I can't argue about anything you wrote. I once saw Troy Polamalu win a game in the 2nd half at Lambeau by himself, making play after play, and sat in stunned disbelief during an incredible return for TD. He is one of my favorite players.

The one thing I will say, if the Steelers rough up Rodgers and take him out, the game will turn into an eye for an eye - you can bet the Cheese fondue on that. I don't think anyone wants a game like that. But without Rodgers, the Packers have Flynn. He played well at New England but I shudder to think what would happen if Mr. Rodgers goes down tomorrow,

GL to you and everyone.

Ditto veeman, and #43 is indeed a force, and if his heel was 100% I'd feel even better about Pittsburgh's chances to slow down GB's offense... I'm a Skins honk myself, woe is me...

GL tomorrow bud

I respect your opinion rollmaestro but I think it's a stretch to say Pouncey's absence but be a blessing in disguise. There are so many other Pitt strentghs to focus on. No need to try to convince us that Legursky is anything but a unknown making his first career start.

I hear you. I just believe that too much is being made of Legursky's inferiority @ the center position. And I'm being sincere when I state that I expect PITT to run the ball more to take some of the strain of off the new center... let's revisit this particular topic after the game, shall we? I really think I have something here, obviously... if PITT sticks to the run, they stand a better chance of winning considering GB's pass-rush and secondary.

In regards to 7 steelers playing good D. Really smoke a little more! The D line and linebackers are playing lights out. Troy is palying like troy and Ryan clark has been playing good. The problem i will say is william gay & maddison and rogers will tear them two up.

packers do have a good D but front 7 no were near pittsburgh and will show tomorrow, When mendenhall runns on them.

The love affair needs to stop for rogers. yes he is very good if harrison and woodley hit him. then we will see what he is made off.

Hey lets not even play the game Rogers is that good!!!!

We will see!!!!

max84 - funny, I don't remember even mentioning Aaron Rodgers except that if the Packers win, I would expect he would get the MVP trophy. Said another way, for the Packers to win, he needs to play at the level we saw in this playoff run.

I do agree with you if Mendenhall and the Pittsburgh running attack dominates this game, it will have a very positive effect on Pittsburgh's chances of winning. It is the only category of all the Defensive stats that GB does not measure up.

But this game is not going to played on paper today. 60 minutes of all out football, baby. May the best team win.