Championship Weekend

Question

Regular Season Overall : 116-100-5 &#x2B;109.18 unitsRegular Season Futures : 7-6-0 &#x2B;36.60 unitsPlayoffs : 8-8-0 -24.80 unitsPlayoff Futures : 0-1-0 -1.00 units (two pending)Green Bay to win NFC &#x2B;600 (3 units)Tennessee to win AFC &#x2B;4000 (1 unit)Green Bay &#x2B;7.5 -110 (11 units)Green Bay &#x2B;8.5 -125 (12.5 units)Played these already, might look to add to them before kickoff.  Also, just to play things smart, will look to add a hedge of sorts on the open futures.  It likely won&#x27;t be a pure hedge, but something. Let&#x27;s dive into the regular season meeting where SF &#x27;demolished&#x27; and &#x27;destroyed&#x27; GB in every facet of the game.  &gt; 7-0 - SF goes up early following an Aaron Rodgers fumble to set up the Niners at the GB 2 yard line.  SF punched it in from there.  Whether you&#x27;re a fan of GB or not, I&#x27;m sure you&#x27;ve watched enough football to know how much of a rarity is for Rodgers to a) fumble and b) fumbled deep in his own territory. &gt; 10-0 - After GB managed nothing on offense, they punted away giving SF great field position at the 50 yard line.  SF didn&#x27;t do much that drive, save for a 25 yard scamper by Wilson to get them into the red zone.  SF settled for a FGGB managed to put together a solid drive and got down to the SF 28 yard line.  they decided to go for it on 4th down instead of getting 3 and they were stopped. &gt; 13-0 - Three big plays - 18 and 22 yard passes to Kittle and an 11 yard run by Coleman helped get SF into the red zone.  Again, they couldn&#x27;t get into the end zone and settled for a FG &gt; 20-0 - Following another poor drive from GB, SF benefited from another poor punt job by GB and started with the ball on their 40.  A nice 15 yard run by Mostert set up a nice deep TD bomb to Samuel for 42 yards. &gt; 23-0 Another rough drive by the Pack and a poor punt started SF at the 50. A long 22 yard pass to Kittle got the Niners in FG range and they kicked it right before halftime

SettleDownSpaz · Accepted Answer

BigNiner - I&#x2019;ll clarify and say that I believe Kittle is one of the most impactful non-QB offensive weapons in the game.  So, me saying he is not elite, may seem harsh, but I still think he is a notch below Adams in terms of threats to opposing defenses.  Kittle influences the game in other ways, more so than Adams, but the Rodgers-Adams dynamic, to me, is more dangerous than G-Kittle.  Again, not by much.

SettleDownSpaz · Answer

Regular Season Overall : 116-100-5 &#x2B;109.18 unitsRegular Season Futures : 7-6-0 &#x2B;36.60 unitsPlayoffs : 8-8-0 -24.80 unitsPlayoff Futures : 0-1-0 -1.00 units (two pending)Green Bay to win NFC &#x2B;600 (3 units)Tennessee to win AFC &#x2B;4000 (1 unit)Green Bay &#x2B;7.5 -110 (11 units)Green Bay &#x2B;8.5 -125 (12.5 units)Played these already, might look to add to them before kickoff.  Also, just to play things smart, will look to add a hedge of sorts on the open futures.  It likely won&#x27;t be a pure hedge, but something. Let&#x27;s dive into the regular season meeting where SF &#x27;demolished&#x27; and &#x27;destroyed&#x27; GB in every facet of the game.  &gt; 7-0 - SF goes up early following an Aaron Rodgers fumble to set up the Niners at the GB 2 yard line.  SF punched it in from there.  Whether you&#x27;re a fan of GB or not, I&#x27;m sure you&#x27;ve watched enough football to know how much of a rarity is for Rodgers to a) fumble and b) fumbled deep in his own territory. &gt; 10-0 - After GB managed nothing on offense, they punted away giving SF great field position at the 50 yard line.  SF didn&#x27;t do much that drive, save for a 25 yard scamper by Wilson to get them into the red zone.  SF settled for a FGGB managed to put together a solid drive and got down to the SF 28 yard line.  they decided to go for it on 4th down instead of getting 3 and they were stopped. &gt; 13-0 - Three big plays - 18 and 22 yard passes to Kittle and an 11 yard run by Coleman helped get SF into the red zone.  Again, they couldn&#x27;t get into the end zone and settled for a FG &gt; 20-0 - Following another poor drive from GB, SF benefited from another poor punt job by GB and started with the ball on their 40.  A nice 15 yard run by Mostert set up a nice deep TD bomb to Samuel for 42 yards. &gt; 23-0 Another rough drive by the Pack and a poor punt started SF at the 50. A long 22 yard pass to Kittle got the Niners in FG range and they kicked it right before halftime

SettleDownSpaz · Answer

&gt; 8-23 - GB&#x27;s offense finally got it going to start the 2nd half.  A nice, well balanced attack of runs and throws including Rodgers getting out of the pocket and up the field.  Adams caught several balls including the TD pass.  GB went for 2 and converted&gt; 8-30 - SF struck back real quick.  A nice 15 yard pass to Bourne set up a 61 yard bomb to Kittle to bring the lead back to 20&#x2B;&gt; 8-37 - The final score after the life was likely completely removed from GB came on a long drive, but also one that included three decently long plays of 13, 15 and 22 yards.    So, let&#x27;s see what we got... a fluke Rodgers fumble, many, many plays of 15&#x2B; yards for SF, great starting field position by SF on nearly every scoring drive.  GB defense did manage to hold SF to field goals where they were well positioned to score a TD.  That&#x27;s a positive, with the amount of big plays a huge concern.  But was this game a script for how each game between these two teams will play out, or was it more an imbalance in the way the ball bounced on that particular day.  I sit in the camp of the latter - The GB offense was bad, but statistically they moved the ball and didn&#x27;t turn it over save for the one rarity fumble by Rodgers.  The defense wasn&#x27;t sharp, but, big plays against good defenses are less about offense exploiting a weakness and more about them taking advantage of lapses at that moment.  I&#x27;ll sum it up with GB had an off day, and much of that could be the result of SF, but &#x27;dominance&#x27;, that wasn&#x27;t the case at all.  GB played real poor, SF played good, but goodis better than poor and the final score reflects that.

smacksmiter · Answer

Best of luck with it...I&#x27;m on the other side...It&#x27;s a dicey proposition to use a detailed game summary as your primary handicapping angle imo...In one way, you could say those actions/decisions by both teams are indicative of how they will play again...or you could look at them, as you do, as indicative of the ball not bouncing the Packers way and they will surely do better the next time they face the 49ers...The eye test tells me that the Packers are the weakest team left in the tournament...and Rogers, unless he has a day like the Rogers of years past could do, will not have enough in the tank to get by this ferocious pass rush...

Phillip2002 · Answer

Great write up and BOL. I remember watching that game and it ended on the 2nd and 3rd play of the game.

The 2nd play was a screen pass that went like 15 yards but the ref called unnecessary roughness on Adams after the play (late stiff arm out of bounds or something like that). The next play, that fumble. The game was done there as all momentum was lost on the road. The Packers did not want to play after that series and the quick touchdown. The same thing happened week 17 in Minny when on the first drive I think Aaron fumbled as well at the 20, but they held them to a FG and went on to win well...

SettleDownSpaz · Answer

smacksitter - you&#x27;re absolutely right.  It&#x27;s never fair to dilute a championship game to something so simple, but I think this honestly comes down to betters asking themselves three questions - 1) Is Aaron Rodgers still a top 7 QB?; 2) Is the SF defense as good as they&#x27;ve been when they&#x27;re good, or are they just another unit that can get exposed on any given day; 3) Who do you trust more to make plays - Jimmy G or the GB defense? DTown - thanks buddy Phillip - Yeah I remember seeing the score after the game ended and expected to see SF offense with a whole mess of rolled up stats.  And that wasn&#x27;t the case at all.  Speaking of the man, Jimmy G.  Here are his regular season stats against teams in the top 15 for total sacks and teams outside the top 15.  GB sits within the top 15. vs. the top 15:217.6 Passing yards per game20 Sacks allowed 10-10 Touchdown-Interception ratio vs. outside top 15:269.3 Passing yards per game 16 Sacks allowed17-3 Touchdown-Interception ratio Will be back in a bit on that SF defense..

BigNiner · Answer

Spaz, Not trying to a wise guy, but when reading your analysis of the first game, one theme kept getting repeated, &#x201C;drive stopped, couldn&#x2019;t get into the endzone.&#x201D; San Fran didn&#x2019;t even have Kwon Alexander, or Dee Ford in that game. GB might move the ball better, but they need to improve significantly on both sides of the ball. I&#x2019;ve looked at this game eve dry which way you can, and I just do not see both of those things happening. *Full Disclosure* I am a Niner fan.

SettleDownSpaz · Answer

Big Niner - No need for the disclosure, I know where your bread is buttered. My point in the first part is more to highlight how I don't feel the 38-7 final is indicative of reality. If you cut the big SF offensive plays in half, take away the Rodgers early fumble and a few other little things here and there, this represents itself more like a 24-14 final. Sure, it's still a SF win and cover, but nobody would be talking about a 10 point victory, but everyone seems fascinated with the 31 point 'thrashing' SF gave GB several weeks back.

Some stats on the SF defense. Again, these are all ones I've plucked, you can drive yourself to a room with no windows the more you pour over stats, but I see things that I find relevant, and not always to support my thoughts. If I find something that contradicts, I will use that just as equally in my research.

SF against what I deem to be above average QBs - this group includes : Jared Goff (twice), Murray (twice), Wilson (twice), Jackson, Brees and Ryan. In these 9 total games, SF was 2-7 against a line of 7.5 and allowed the following points - 25, 27, 7, 20 (rain game with Baltimore), 27, 46, 29, 31and 21 - for an average of 25.88 points allowed per game.

In the other 7 games against below average QBs, their opponents mustered 17, 17, 20, 3, 0, 13, and 10 for an average of 11.4 points per game.

Getty3 · Answer

It just amazes me that Green Bay has been left out of the party as a possible Super Bowl winner. I love the 49ers makeup, I really do, but this seems so likely to be a point spread winner with the underdog without winning the game. That hasn&#x27;t happened yet in these playoffs. GB has won 6 straight games since losing to SF and scoring 20&#x2B; in all of them. They&#x27;re not going to score 8 again. More likely about 23. That leaves SF to go over 30 to cover. Good Luck with that.

smacksmiter · Answer

I believe a very good debate could be had as to "Average QBs" you have listed there...Goff...terrible year, most ratings below average that I can find...Murray...mixed bag on the rating...maybe average..Ryan..best chance to be listed above average...https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb/2019

SettleDownSpaz · Answer

Getty - well said my friend. No doubt SF is built like a team who can win it all, but, to me, it just seems like they have less offensive stability than the Pack. GB - better, more experienced QB who doesn’t turn the ball over and rarely gets sacked. More stable running game with better lead back. Best pass catcher - Kittle is great, but Adams is elite. And then defensively, edge to SF, but they’re a flashy bunch. GB is a hard hat, lunch pale group who I always tend to favor in championship caliber games

Snacksitter - moving Goff to belie average, which I can’t really argue improves the stats for ‘above average’ QBs considering Rams only put up 7 in one game vs SF. Murray is a young QB but he makes plays, certainly above average enough to make plays and put up points. And Ryan, to each their own opinion, but he has and always will be an above average QB. He can move the ball and help position his team to score better than most

BigNiner · Answer

&#xA;Really disagree with your bolded assessments. Adams might be the better prototype receiver, but Kittle is elite and the much bigger mismatch for an opposing defense.

Macwestie1 · Answer

GL SettleDownSpaz either way

erjaq · Answer

Interesting and well thought out points here, SDS. I do feel like the regular season blowout provides a tactical advantage for GB. SF doesn't need to change anything, right? Just trot out the same game plan and the results should follow. Whereas GB needs to overhaul their approach.

This IMO is the essence of the revenge game angle -- it is not that the losing team is so darn mad about the prior game, which is kinda silly. This happens in-game, too. If one team is up big at halftime, the other team (if well coached, anyway) makes the adjustments that allow them to get back in the game.

Anyway, I do believe that SF is the better team overall, but this angle, plus the experience edge at QB, may be enough for GB to pull this one out, or at least cover the spread.

Best of luck with your plays, thanks for all you do around here.

undermysac · Answer

Best of luck Spaz

SettleDownSpaz · Answer

Mac, insatiable, Sac - thanks fellas, good luck this weekend

erjaq - good post my friend, and agree, SF might have more talent on both sides of the ball, but there's always more to the outcome.

Tennessee +7.5 -110 (22 units)

During the last six weeks of the regular season, the Chiefs went 6-0, but the offense wasn't all too impressive, at least not the juggernaut we've enjoyed the last two season. Mahomes completed 65% of his passes for an average of 234 passing yards per game. He three 8 touchdowns against 4 interceptions and the team averaged 27.8 points per game. Decent numbers, by no means great, and by no means the KC normal. Thankfully, all was saved last week when they erupted for 51 points against Houston. Phew, one game quickly erases six weeks of solid and all is right with the NFL world. Oddsmakers seem to be playing right along opening the line at 7.5, basically reminding the public that the real KC offense is back, they just blew out Houston, who, by the way, is 'better' than Tennessee because they won the division. Seems like some deep valuation into one game, and really not much into the two games Tennessee has won thus far in the playoffs. Let's be brutally honest - Houston's pass defense is abysmal. Their best defense was pass interference and when they decided to try something different, holding wasn't much better. We've seen enough trashing of Bill O'Brien, so I won't go there, but he had no chance once Andy Reid got going. I'm looking into whether Reid actually spotted him 24 points. Now, Tennessee's pass defense isn't great, but it's playing the best it has all season, it has experience and playmakers and is much better than Houston's pass defense. To further that point, the last six regular season games for the Chiefs were against the Chargers (twice), Raiders, Patriots, Broncos, and Bears. A combination of good, bad and equal to Tennessee. The numbers weren't so good against these teams, so why are they getting less publicity than the Houston game?

SettleDownSpaz · Answer

In the five games where KC didn&#x27;t win by more than a TD - three losses, two 7 point wins over SD and NE and a five point win over Baltimorw, each of these games had at least three of the four occurrences; some had all four: - Opponent won the Time of Possession battle, i.e. limited the time Mahomes and the offense were on the field- Opponent had a dominant rushing attack, well over 100 yards on the ground- Mahomes had at least one turnover- KC rushed for less than 100 yards as a team Coach Vrabel has been pretty candid about the plan to keep Mahomes off the field and continue to pound the ground.  Now, this may be all gamesmanship, but I think it&#x27;s fair to say two of the four above have a very high likelihood.  Now, it&#x27;s no given - the Titans can get all four of these and still lose and still fail to cover, but the blueprint for success has been laid out and I think Vrabel will be much better at executing than Bill O&#x27;Brien At some point, Tannehill is going to have to make plays down the field and I expect this week is the one where AJ Brown shows up.  The first two playoff games weren&#x27;t ideal passing conditions and the success on the ground with Henry was so good, Tennessee just rode on his back to the next round.  If you watch film of last weekend&#x27;s win, you can see Tannehill doing more with his legs and arm than he did against the Patriots and I expect that trajectory to continue in that direction. Henry will be the focal point, of course, but Tannehill will need to be a valuable sidekick.

Phillip2002 · Answer

&#xA;This is perfect. On Monday, I thought they had no chance at all. Today, Friday, I feel more and more that a crazy upset could happen, but a 7.5 cover could definitely be the right side. GB has been red hot in the past 2 months and IDK if Jimmy G can score 30&#x2B; on Sunday, but if he does, he deserves to go to the super bowl, no doubt.&#xA;Lots of people project the Packers to score between 13-17, and if you think about it, that would be just as bad as the 8 since this is their second crack at them with momentum and an eagerness to win, something they did not have on that November night.

SettleDownSpaz · Answer

Phillip Here&#x2019;s where I&#x2019;m invested.. for now.  Still three and six hours before kickoff, so I can&#x2019;t imagine this is the final card.  Tennessee &#x2B;7.5 -110 (22 units)Tennessee-Kansas City over 51.5 -110 (27.5 units) AJ Brown receiving yards over 61.5 -112 (11.2 units)AJ Brown to score &#x2B;180 (6 units) Green Bay &#x2B;7.5 -110 (11 units)Green Bay &#x2B;8 -110 (11 units)Green Bay &#x2B;8.5 -125 (12.5 units)Geronimo Allison over 14.5 -112 (11.2 units)

SettleDownSpaz · Answer

Mahomes INT - Yes &#x2B;120 (7 units)Dion Lewis to score &#x2B;400 (3 units)

SettleDownSpaz · Answer

Tennessee over 21.5 -103 (20.6 units)Green Bay over 19.5 -117 (23.4 units)

JFEEZEE · Answer

Lets get it bruh!!!!

JOHNFISHERMAN · Answer

I think it&#x27;s only right for you to post your results!

Championship Weekend

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