Posted:
#1
I hit big on the Eagles over the Cowboys last week, and I'm going back to the well by fading the Cowboys again tonight. Besides the glaring fact that Romo has historically been terrible in December, I think we have a perfect scenario with an overrated team coming in as a road favorite against an underrated Bears team.
Despite the popular opinion that "the Bears suck", I don't think they are that bad. The Bears have lost to: Det, GB(2), NE, Mia, Car, and Buf. Car being the only really bad loss, where they turned the ball over 4 times. All of the other teams they lost to are playoff contenders. The Cowboys, on the other hand, have only 2 wins against opponents over .500: Hou and Sea.
In addition to the high level view that I believe there is just way too much value with Chi +4 because of public perception, this is just a bad matchup for the Cowboys defense. Dallas has struggled mightily against qbs who can sling the ball around. Drew Brees, Eli Manning(2), Carson Palmer, and most recently, Mark Sanchez, have all torched Dallas' porous secondary. In fact, Brandon Carr has one of the worst cover grades in the NFL this season. Obviously, Dallas will not be able to play man on the corners against Jeffery and Marshall. That's fine, except Dallas can't get pressure on Cutler rushing 4. They haven't been able to get pressure on the qb all year, and Cutler is actually pretty good when he's not getting hit every time he drops back. Bennett should be able to find holes in the zone with safeties paying attention to Jeffery/Marshall over the top, and Forte will have an absolute field day. If Cowboys choose to stack the box, they will be vulnerable to the wr screen which the Bears love throwing to Jeffery. Remember Brandon Carr? Yea, he will have the task of covering Jeffery most of the night. Even if they stack the box the Cowboys will struggle to stop Forte as they rank 27th against the run, yielding 4.5ypc.
Bottom line, I think this game will look a lot like the beat down the Bears gave the Cowboys this time last year when they scored on every possession sans their last. Sure, the Cowboys will be able to put up some points against the Bears defense too, but I don't think it will be enough. I will gladly take the home team getting 4.
0
I got em @.+3.5 Bennett needs to pick up the slack as Jeffery is dinged up.
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