Chiefs v. Bengals - Thoughts

Cincinnati has played zero strong QBs in the playoffs and only won in close games. They now face Mahomes and the KC Chiefs in Arrowhead for a chance to go to the SuperBowl. And yes, these Bengals beat these Chiefs not too long ago. However, we all know one regular season game isn't the whole story. And the truth is the Bengals have played insanely few quality QBs in the last couple of months (outside Mahomes). In addition, these Bengals have been on the better side of the turnover battle way more often than not in the last few months. I believe the head to head matchup of the last game and the recent hot streak of the Bengals to have drastically distorted this line. Think it should be KC -9.5 and I might still like it given the magnitude of the game and homefield advantage. 

Personally I believe the KC Chiefs will outclass the Bengals in a BIG way. I'm a massive Joe Burrow fan but this is just too tall of a task for the young legend. A backdoor cover by the Bengals wouldn't surprise me at all, particularly if you get 7.5, but I'm betting on a massive blowout for the Chiefs. 42-17.

One other thing to think about. The money is on the Bengals?! At least this is what I'm seeing here on Covers. This is what I call Covers Sugah! I'm getting to be the contrarian with Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid in Arrow Stadium against a 2nd year QB in a fledgling franchise that has overachieved significantly??? GOLD.

There is nothing I don't like about this bet. Bengals supporters are blinded by the hot streak and Joe Burrow's (and Chase's) future greatness. 

Despite that, to the protect the backdoor my bet is: Chiefs -6.5 (buy 0.5 pts) -130 - 5 Units

GL All. 

(I know this wont have traction but I'm liking posting my high conviction plays with thoughts)

Enjoyed your writeup...Chris Simms in his breakdown of the game mentioned that two of the Chiefs' starting O linemen were out in their first meeting but are now healthy. BOL

TY for the other thoughts. GL all. 

So it’s a high conviction play that you would still take at -9.5 but you’re buying half a point and eating -130 juice? Hmm

goodluck 

@stakkibotris

 I like the Chiefs too, though I don't know about a 42-17 blowout. Arrowhead is one of the 2 most difficult outdoor venues in football for visitors and while I'm a Joe Burrow fan too, he may in for a surprise on Sunday, it's going to be loud, raucous, and hostile and his inexperience will be greatly tested. Chiefs are like the big brother in this game, little brother, your time is coming...but not yet (Gladiator). Turnovers, Bengals have been good lately in that department but I can see a couple coming Sunday, only 4 teams have more takeaways than the KC defense, they have 29 (Bengals 21). And any Bengal TO is likely to be converted into points by the Chief's high powered offense, which is just rolling.  KC losing OTR not too long ago to CIN, now with a chance at redemption at home in the AFC championship game is the worst possible scenario for the Bengals. I think the Chiefs win and cover, DD win. Best of luck to you!

FYI, looks like Tyranny Mathieu and starting CB Rashad Fenton, out last 2 games, will both be available for KC. And I would be remiss to not mention one of my favorite players, Chris Jones. He will be a matchup nightmare for the weak Bengals line. He had 2 sacks in their previous meeting.

@mrusso

Food 4 Thought

No “one” company has spent more on advertising than State Farm Insurance with Rogers and Mahommes. Do you really think The NFL is going to let both those QBs be ousted before the SB after what they’ve spent ???
The Chiefs are the fan favorite for good reason, and have the coaching and team personnel to, to cover, but are never out of the game if have fallen behind, making them likely, SB bound. For those of you who voice concern about questionable officiating…..just sayin. ??

Spagnuolo played a lot of man on man in the last one and Burrow to Chase killed them...thinkin' that Burrow will see more zone coverages on Sunday. Looks like the Chiefs will be healthy so am leaning KC also. 

@jtoler

 The last team in the world that's worried about falling behind is the KC Chiefs amigo. That Texans game where they fell behind 24-0? Final score 51-31. And they trailed SF in the Superbowl by 10 going into the 4th quarter and won 31-20, and that SF defense was outstanding, alot better than this Bengals defense. But we all have our opinions. GL to you-

"reliable sources" is a term we all should use very loosely here....for every "source" you find majority on KC you can find another equally on Cincy...

Since playoffs started Covers picks are 3-5-2 ATS.... showing 59% right now on Bengals +7

I'd argue that KC is the team that got "lucky" last week....I mean, 13 seconds....come on now....

Championship games are decided on the offensive and defensive lines....then QB/Coach matchups.... KC has advantage on Oline vs. Cin Dline and advantage of Dline over Cin Oline.   Reid > Taylor cannot be debated.... If you think Joe Burrow is Tom Brady then take the Bengals on the ML cause Tommy is only QB to beat Mahomes at Arrowhead in post season.  BOL to all 

@kcblitzkrieg

 All 4 winning teams last week could have easily lost, 3 walk off FGs and an OT. I'm sure each winning coach would say that his team was "lucky."

Odds on bengals to win7-12 9.5-1

odds on bengals to win 12-18 20-1

odds on bengals 19-24 35-1

odds on bengals to win 25-30 50-1

I think you’re right, if there’s a blowout it will be the Chiefs winning big, not the other way around

but in last meeting chiefs were leading by 14 3 times 14-0 21-7 28-14 and Bengals still came back to win

The 4th quarter could start with chiefs leading by 3 TDs and Bengals have the firepower to come back for the cover, if not the win

BOL

So basically, people expect kc and LA to win. Vs teams that came from behind on them both.

Personally I believe the KC Chiefs will outclass the Bengals in a BIG way. I'm a massive Joe Burrow fan but this is just too tall of a task for the young legend. A backdoor cover by the Bengals wouldn't surprise me at all, particularly if you get 7.5, but I'm betting on a massive blowout for the Chiefs. 42-17. 

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So, they'd score 42, a third time  in a row,and you wouldn't find that fishy?

What's lucky about defenses lying down to create fantastic endings for the drooling public?

@jtoler

Trust you? Nothing personal but I'll pass. I trust myself and my experience and knowledge. GL to you

@puds

 Yes.

Why in the world would you not pay the extra juice here. Chiefs could lead by 14 late and that is the difference between a backdoor push and a TD cushion. No brainer. Also, given that it is a high conviction play, I'm hoping the juice doesn't matter!

@stakkibotris

 Guess we’ll agree to disagree on that

BOL to ya sir 

@puds

 BOL brotha! 

@puds

 You on other side? If so, thoughts?