Circle the Wagons - Bills @ Chiefs

Game of the week....KC finally covered a game last week after that brutal stretch of 1 cover in 13 regular season games.  Tons of discussion on this game as we head into the second half of the week.  Gonna be a lot of Bills love around here as the dog.  Let's get it going.... 

The KC revenge tour has been in full effect so far early in the season.... Lamar finally getting his win over Mahomes and Herbert getting his as well puts KC with two losses.  Allen and the Bills have plenty of revenge to go around in this matchup so will the trend continue and make it #3 ???  

I haven't watched any Bills games this year but what has stuck out to me the most when looking at this team is NOT their #1 defensive efficiency ranking, but their #19 offensive passing efficiency rating to go along with their #17 overall efficiency rating.  The Bills defenses in the past couple seasons have been solid and good at times but have been hit with their share of injuries.  No team is good at anything when they get hit with injuries in key positions.  Before this past Sunday they were pretty healthy but did get banged up a bit on the defensive side of the ball....Matt Milano is one of these with a hamstring injury.  Keep an eye on him and White for Sunday night.  White covers Tyreke and the Bill's defensive numbers took a hit last year with Milano out.  

Dabol does a helluva job coordinating the Bills offense but 17th overall with a 19th ranked passing game!?!?  Any insight into this would be great.... 
Again, I have not watched Josh Allen play THIS year so I can't comment but one thing I did question before the beginning of the year with Allen was the impact the full crowds in the stands was going to have on him this year.  Everyone knows he had the year of his short career last season and I'm sure some regression was to be expected but this so far???  The defenses the Bills have gone up against this year rank as follows:  22, 28, 13, 17.  No excuses to be found there.  Again, insight would be welcome... 

Overall as a team they are dominating their (weak) opponents, 32nd in SOS....As a team they are #1 overall in efficiency with the #1 ranked defense.  Offensive rankings of the opponents they have faced as follows:  25, 28, 13, 30.  Dominating?  Yes.  Versus who?  Questionable.  

should be a shootout, KC defence looked terrible vs the eagles last week and the bills havent been tested at all

expecting both teams to be able to move the ball

if the bills D can get a few stops can the KC D match it....

When you look at the Chiefs metrics there isn't anything that really "jumps" out at you.... I mean, 32nd in defensive efficiency with the 31st ranked passing and 32nd ranked rushing defense isn't anything to worry about right?  Seriously though, can't get worse than that right?  I mean, bottom of barrel only way is up....has to get better from here on out if you are a KC fan right?  The same issues KC has faced on defense the past few seasons are still the same.  Can't stop the run which leads to not being able to stop the pass.  The CJones95 defensive end experiment should end now.  Frank Clark hasn't even barely played and when he has he can't get to the QB and is one of the worst ends in the league vs. the run right now. KC has faced the #4, 6, 14 and 20th ranked offenses in the league.  Still gave up 30 points to the worst of that group.  

Offensively, and I said this before the season, Mahomes has the best offensive line he's ever played behind as a Pro.  Their Center Humphrey and LG Smith are playing at a Pro Bowl levels as rookies.  KC line ranks #5 overall with #1 rushing and #4 pass blocking efficiency.  Their run blocking numbers are actually off the charts with 100% power success rate.  KC offense is #1 overall with #1 passing and #4 rush efficiency.  The KC offense has faced the following rated defenses:  3, 9, 12, 24....winning v. Browns #3 and losing vs. Chargers #9 top 10 units.  Chargers held Mahomes to 23 on the road to win and the Ravens had to score 36 to beat them by 1 point at home.  

Can the Bills hold them to 23/24 or can the Bills put up 30+ to win?  Either is very possible and it is the same recipe any other team has used to beat Mahomes and KC in the past.  Lots more info to dive into here.  Interested to see the Bills offensive and defensive line splits next.  

Last thing for now....while the Bills have big reasons for revenge here let's not forget how some of the Bills players acted in the AFC championship game last year at Arrowhead.  Andy Reid and the Chiefs I'm sure have not forgotten.  

Monday is indigenous peoples day and Columbus day.

Will that help the "Chiefs" Sunday night?

Keep in mind Braves play Brewers on Monday.

@kcblitzkrieg

 really dont know why people care who the bills have beaten. Did anyone else shut out houston miami and washington or just the bills? They have stomped them. Why did atlanta give up 34 to wash and lose? Because they arent as good. You seem to have alot of questions about a bills offense averaging 33.4 per game. Fans in the stands???? Huh?

Never bet with your heart.  Bet with your head or stay away.

@Osirus13

 Yes, I do have questions.  I'm looking for insight in hopes of gaining a more educated opinion on this Bills team.  Thank you for your contribution....  

@chic-cardinals

@kcblitzkrieg

 then how are you gonna say that when your writeup was very homerish

@Osirus13

Homerish??  I just listed stats and information, posed a couple questions.  I gave some commentary on how horrible the KC defense is and elite their offensive line is so far this season.  I've watched KC play and have not seen Buffalo play.  Hence the questions on the Bills. 

I do not believe the Bills defense has been tested at all this year and by the looks of the injury report they could end up being short handed on Sunday.  I also believe that the Bills offense, specifically Allen, has statistically underperformed this year compared to last.  I'd like to know why?  The answer could be as simple as "the Bills have dominated their opponents so much that Allen hasn't needed to put up the superman QB numbers he did last year".  That could be exactly why, I don't know, which is why I posed the question.  

I also believe that whatever the Bills' offensive efficiency ranking is has little to no impact on how they will perform vs the KC defense.  If they run the ball consistently and Dabol dials up some timely PA big plays and manages Allen well then they'll beat KC just like the Chargers did.  

Historically speaking the Chiefs have been amazing especially on 3rd down..They have the highest 3rd down conversion rate on offense since 1991 thru 4 games..

2021 Chiefs 64.1% 

2006 Colts 62.3% Superbowl Winner 

1999 Rams 60.9 % Superbowl Winner 

2000 Rams 59.0 % Lost in Wildcard game..

If they can Improve on Defense they should be fine going forward but now they are 32nd in Defensive DVOA..

@Mcmanus

  Good share

also historically speaking, they’ve been amazingly bad at red zone defense. 80% of RZ trips resulting in TDs.  Bills defense is #1 at 33%.  KC was 80% last year as well and still made the SB.    

@kcblitzkrieg

 the bills have played weaker opponents. Does it matter? Hate that reason. Did every team beat washington 43-21 and the other teams 40-0? No they put their foot down as much as they could.  Washington scored 34 last week. Didnt see them shut down then. I thought your no fans take was absurd. Sounds like the bills have alot of offensive weakness for a team averaging 33.4 per game. Are they going to beat kc? I dont know its a tough game but you are way underrating the bills. Really dont think the opponents matter. You play who you play

You continue to want to argue about what exactly???  You have provided ZERO insight to what was supposed to be a discussion.  You don't like to consider strength of schedule when evaluating a game.  OK cool we get it, to each his own.  GL on your card.  

@Osirus13

 By the way, the crowd noise deal was with regards to Allen specifically.  I remember first hearing about it in the offseason as it was brought up by a Bills reporter.  It wasn't a prediction or anything but they were talking about regression and mentioned the crowd factor.  Go look up Allen's home / road splits prior to last season.  Look up his playoff splits.   

"Obsurd" huh.... 

https://www.cover1.net/buffalo-bills-otas-crowd-noise/

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2021/6/29/22553266/will-josh-allen-regress-with-the-return-of-crowds-buffalo-bills-quarterback-mvp

https://theathletic.com/2609909/2021/05/25/fans-are-back-which-is-great-for-the-nfl-but-not-for-qbs-like-aaron-rodgers-josh-allen-and-justin-herbert/

Thank you. 

Two years ago, Arrowhead Addict ranked and rated Mahomes’ top 15 commercials at the time. Since then, Mahomes has done more commercials as new endorsements have come.Ad

In addition to all of his endorsements, Mahomes has been on the cover of EA Sports’ Madden twice. Mahomes was first on the cover of Madden NFL 20 as the Chiefs went on to win their first Super Bowl in 50 years that season. Two years later, Mahomes shared the cover of Madden NFL 22 with Tom Brady. It was the second time both players were on the cover of Madden.

Along with doing commercials with Brady for Madden, Mahomes has teamed up with Aaron Rodgers for State Farm and Troy Polamalu for Head & Shoulders. 

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Josh Allen, Buffalo Wild wings commercial.

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More endorsements equals more wins. Especially primetime games 

Don't over think it 

Just bet Zack Moss to score a TD ...He's got 4 in the last 3 games..

You could make a case for either side in this coin flip matchup ...No result on the scoreboard should suprise anyone 

Good thread, good info...ive still no idea which way this goes, altho with THAT kansas defence im leaning towards the total going way over the mark...but as so often happens when thats expected the defences step up and everything gets shut down...fek knows long time till KO...

@dubz4dummyz

 Their d isn’t worldly but probably shows up for this spot….

good bet against the worst rushing defense in the league.....also check out Kelce's props.  Catches & yards OV props.  He was quiet last game and that doesn't happen twice in a row too often, especially when it is against an opponent as such.  I saw Milano is two straight DNPs...I think he missed both games last year no? 

thats it last game Bills played no body as a 19.5 chalk wnd ran up the score to 40 points they should have saved that offense for this game i mean every body is whipping Texans now days

I look at spread and say why so low? only 3 points to a team that really hasnt beaten any one and busted the century kark in 3 games scoring over 100 points

sorry bills you lost to the steelers week 1 at home and after that 3 subbies WASH Miami and texans

interesting takes. By no means this will be an easy one for the Bills. I see a close game on primetime either way but you're right Bills are getting a bit too much love which kind of scares me. I'm on Bills +3 I feel a tad more comfortable with that number rather than 2.5, I wouldn't be comfortable with that line. 

Bills haven't proven they can beat the Chiefs yet. 2 losses to them last season.. I wonder how many tries it will take Josh Allen to beat Mahomes. It took Lamar Jackson 4 tries.. but honestly Ravens got lucky there. So how bout you Josh Allen? 

@vaas187

 chiefs? they made the eagles offence look elite last week lol

thinkin the bills score 27+

bills TT over 27.0 a good play this week IMO

A few items of interest has put me squarely on the Chiefs Sunday night.

#1, QB's the Buffalo have faced. 

Their lone loss came against a noddled arm Roethlisberger.  But look who've they've seen their next three games out: all back up QB's.  Brissett, Heinecke and David Mills.  

#2, Allen's sluggish start.

This guy is number two in QB salary now but he's playing more like number 25.  Look at Mahomes numbers so far and he's played some good defenses.  Mahomes is playing like an elite QB.  Allen is not.  He's missing guys, overthrowing open receivers.  Buffalo's TD conversion rate in the Red zone this season is 23rd, KC is 3rd.  That's huge.  With the defenses Buffalo has played, there's no excuse for poor red zone play.

#3, Public backed dogs.

People are buying high on the Bills because of the inflated scores they've put up on teams playing their back up QB's.  Go back and watch those Bills games, they've got holes but nobody's talking about them.  Everybody is talking about KC's putrid D and how this is a 'revenge' spot for Buffalo.  2/3's of the money is flowing Buffalo's way, never a bad thing to fade a public dog and didn't we just see this game play out not too long ago?

#4, Last year's AFC Title game.

Remember all the fuss about Mahomes?  Will he play, won't he play.  His big toe?  That game saw the money slightly more on the Bills side and things looked good with the Bills jumping out to a quick 9-0 lead.  So what happened?  KC outscored Buffalo 38-15 the rest of the way.  Mahomes took over and Allen was left holding his you-know-what in his hands when the clock struck midnight; total blowout.  This time around there is no talk of Mahomes health leading into the game, so what then is the deal with the with the spread?

#5, The spread.

I'm looking at Pinnacle -3, +102 (at time of this post).  The advanced Westgate line was -4.5 so what warrants the drop?  Matt Milano didn't practice this week and doesn't look like he'll be 100% (he'll likely play but how effective will he be?).  Allen is not putting up Red zone TD's like Mahomes is at the moment and Patty M is definitely playing at his paygrade while Allen is not.  Laying a FG at home with the best QB in the league vs a guy who's still trying to figure things out is a no brainer.  The drop in advanced line is caused by the public heavily backing the Bills, reasoning the Bills will score a ton vs a bad KC D so keeping it within a FG just makes it for an easy bet.

Bottom line is the spread is not priced according to the two teams who will take the field.  Too much is being made of Buffalo's offensive numbers, KC's 2-2 record and last years AFC title game.  I believe the line should be -4 at a minimum so there is tremendous value in the home team in saying that.

I'll post this game as my posted play tomorrow, I absolutely love it.  I've locked it in early.

GL ALL!