I was more than happy to be able to grab what I thought were cheap prices on the top seeds which opened lower than I had them and went down briefly before going back up.
I'm on Ravens -3 for 5 units at -120
Getting Andrews back is huge and this KC team really played 2 frauds so far. Bills lack of LBs was a killer for them as was Diggs doing absolutely nothing all game and Miami just was a spent force. And the Bills still could have won.
KC just isn't the same this year and Baltimore has blown out teams in most of their wins. The Miami team KC only beat by a TD when they were at full strength the Ravens massacred and put 50+ on, also blew out Detroit who KC lost to, and they blew out SF who beat GB who KC lost to.
Baltimore doesn't have horrid 2nd half scoring droughts like KC and leads the NFL in sacks and takeaways. They have a much better coaching staff than what KC has faced and Baltimore is a stronghold unlike Buffalo who can't win big home playoff games.
KC has an excellent defense but also gets a lot of penalties on defense. Baltimore's league leading scoring margin has gone up from 12 per game to a whopping +18 over the last 3 despite the game they didn't care about in week 18.
As good as Mahomes is, even Brady didn't get through every playoff gauntlet and the conf Championships is where he lost the most games. I think people really overstate? Mahomes record in big games, he couldn't get past Brady the first few tries and got basted by him again on a different team in the SB a few years ago.
Lamar Jackson just has to avoid turnovers and let his dominant offensive line keep Mahomes on the sideline. They don't have a useless kicker like the Bills and barely had to get out of 1st gear last week.
When they did flip the switch they murdered Houston 2nd half and this KC team has been dreadful in the 2nd half this season.
I was more than happy to be able to grab what I thought were cheap prices on the top seeds which opened lower than I had them and went down briefly before going back up.
I'm on Ravens -3 for 5 units at -120
Getting Andrews back is huge and this KC team really played 2 frauds so far. Bills lack of LBs was a killer for them as was Diggs doing absolutely nothing all game and Miami just was a spent force. And the Bills still could have won.
KC just isn't the same this year and Baltimore has blown out teams in most of their wins. The Miami team KC only beat by a TD when they were at full strength the Ravens massacred and put 50+ on, also blew out Detroit who KC lost to, and they blew out SF who beat GB who KC lost to.
Baltimore doesn't have horrid 2nd half scoring droughts like KC and leads the NFL in sacks and takeaways. They have a much better coaching staff than what KC has faced and Baltimore is a stronghold unlike Buffalo who can't win big home playoff games.
KC has an excellent defense but also gets a lot of penalties on defense. Baltimore's league leading scoring margin has gone up from 12 per game to a whopping +18 over the last 3 despite the game they didn't care about in week 18.
As good as Mahomes is, even Brady didn't get through every playoff gauntlet and the conf Championships is where he lost the most games. I think people really overstate? Mahomes record in big games, he couldn't get past Brady the first few tries and got basted by him again on a different team in the SB a few years ago.
Lamar Jackson just has to avoid turnovers and let his dominant offensive line keep Mahomes on the sideline. They don't have a useless kicker like the Bills and barely had to get out of 1st gear last week.
When they did flip the switch they murdered Houston 2nd half and this KC team has been dreadful in the 2nd half this season.
I am all over SF for a super max play (5 units is my usual max but I did go 8 on Baltimore last week and this week it's SF)
SF line was generous at the start of the week due to them being underwhelming last week. But they still won. And that, to me, was their scare game. It was raining and bad weather is always a great equalizer, Purdy was a bit off/rusty/feeling the pressure and Deebo getting hurt was massive - their bad streak this year the 3 Ls was also when he was out. He practiced Thursday and doesn't have a fracture. Detroit doesn't have a defense that can stop an offense with lots of options they can only win by trying to match score for score but SF can keep control of this game with time of possession.
Don't get caught having last week's game syndrome. This SF team leads the NFL in yards per completion and that is Detroit's biggest weakness on defense. They couldn't get stops last week til the very end vs a Bucs team that not only had to pass because they were behind but has no run game anyway. The 9ers have a way more potent run game and way more balanced offense. The Bucs don't have tight ends or physical fast RBs that SF has.
And the week before if you saw Detroit vs Minnesota it was the same thing. Score a TD and give up a bomb play. They couldn't beat GB on Thanksgiving with their best team in decades, they are not going to the super bowl or even keeping it close vs the Super Bowl favorites.
The Lions playoff pedigree is just not there, this is as far as they go. All the major stats I use Balty and SF are clear on everything and both these teams will advance. Despite Balty being top in takeaways SF is actually top in turnover margin as they rarely give it away.
The 9ers won't struggle this week like last week. It will be a blowout, Goff will be getting stripped and it will make for a mouth watering clash in the SB..which, despite Baltimore not having a 3 game losing streak like SF and looking like the best team overall with the most blowouts (including one of SF) I actually think the 9ers will come out on top in the end.
I am all over SF for a super max play (5 units is my usual max but I did go 8 on Baltimore last week and this week it's SF)
SF line was generous at the start of the week due to them being underwhelming last week. But they still won. And that, to me, was their scare game. It was raining and bad weather is always a great equalizer, Purdy was a bit off/rusty/feeling the pressure and Deebo getting hurt was massive - their bad streak this year the 3 Ls was also when he was out. He practiced Thursday and doesn't have a fracture. Detroit doesn't have a defense that can stop an offense with lots of options they can only win by trying to match score for score but SF can keep control of this game with time of possession.
Don't get caught having last week's game syndrome. This SF team leads the NFL in yards per completion and that is Detroit's biggest weakness on defense. They couldn't get stops last week til the very end vs a Bucs team that not only had to pass because they were behind but has no run game anyway. The 9ers have a way more potent run game and way more balanced offense. The Bucs don't have tight ends or physical fast RBs that SF has.
And the week before if you saw Detroit vs Minnesota it was the same thing. Score a TD and give up a bomb play. They couldn't beat GB on Thanksgiving with their best team in decades, they are not going to the super bowl or even keeping it close vs the Super Bowl favorites.
The Lions playoff pedigree is just not there, this is as far as they go. All the major stats I use Balty and SF are clear on everything and both these teams will advance. Despite Balty being top in takeaways SF is actually top in turnover margin as they rarely give it away.
The 9ers won't struggle this week like last week. It will be a blowout, Goff will be getting stripped and it will make for a mouth watering clash in the SB..which, despite Baltimore not having a 3 game losing streak like SF and looking like the best team overall with the most blowouts (including one of SF) I actually think the 9ers will come out on top in the end.
i think people really aren't aware how Mahomes has struggled this year. His yards per pass are lower than Will Levis and the same as Ryan Tannehill (Titans offense sucked pretty bad, right?) It is .1 yard above Russell Wilson's (Denver's offense was pretty bad, right?)
He had 30 passing TDs but he had the 2nd most attempts. In fact both QBs I'm fading had the top 2 attempts. To me, the lack of balance makes it very unlikely both of these teams advance and very possible neither one does.
Mahomes had the 5th most picks in the NFL at 14 while Jackson had half that at 7. Fumbles was 6 to 3 lost, 11 to 5 total in favor of Mahomes but still LJ who used to be a turnover machine had 4 less. And he is 4th in yards per pass with Mahomes at 20th.
Purdy is 1st in the NFL in yards per pass by almost 2 yards which is just excellent.
And the reason these guys are getting chunks like that is the stellar run game and offensive lines that give them plenty of time. KC revamped their Oline and the WRs are not as good this year. They would be a very mediocre team if they didn't have such a good defense, played in a division with 3 hapless teams, 2 of whom fired the coach this year, 1 fired theirs after last year and 2 of the 3 changed QBs this year they sucked so bad.
Detroit's offense doesn't have any problems passing the ball but I imagine Brock Purdy and the offense are itching to show what they can do with Deebo back on the field after that underwhelming display last week. Weather will be clear this week too, and their league leading yards per pass offense is facing the tied for dead last yards per completion Lions.
If you look at SF's defense in that stat they are number 3, KC is 2 and Baltimore is 1. Detroit's last two opponents were ranked 20th (Bucs) and 27th (Rams). Huge step up. Interestingly when they faced KC they won, when they faced Baltimore they lost by 32 points. What's the difference? SF is close to Baltimore in offensive stats, KC isn't. And if you remember that KC game the WRs dropped long passes, one of which would have set up a game winning field goal.
If you're betting Detroit you are basically pinning your hopes on Purdy NOT reverting back to the form he had most of the season which IMO is unlikely given he gets Deebo back and a dry day in the bay.
i think people really aren't aware how Mahomes has struggled this year. His yards per pass are lower than Will Levis and the same as Ryan Tannehill (Titans offense sucked pretty bad, right?) It is .1 yard above Russell Wilson's (Denver's offense was pretty bad, right?)
He had 30 passing TDs but he had the 2nd most attempts. In fact both QBs I'm fading had the top 2 attempts. To me, the lack of balance makes it very unlikely both of these teams advance and very possible neither one does.
Mahomes had the 5th most picks in the NFL at 14 while Jackson had half that at 7. Fumbles was 6 to 3 lost, 11 to 5 total in favor of Mahomes but still LJ who used to be a turnover machine had 4 less. And he is 4th in yards per pass with Mahomes at 20th.
Purdy is 1st in the NFL in yards per pass by almost 2 yards which is just excellent.
And the reason these guys are getting chunks like that is the stellar run game and offensive lines that give them plenty of time. KC revamped their Oline and the WRs are not as good this year. They would be a very mediocre team if they didn't have such a good defense, played in a division with 3 hapless teams, 2 of whom fired the coach this year, 1 fired theirs after last year and 2 of the 3 changed QBs this year they sucked so bad.
Detroit's offense doesn't have any problems passing the ball but I imagine Brock Purdy and the offense are itching to show what they can do with Deebo back on the field after that underwhelming display last week. Weather will be clear this week too, and their league leading yards per pass offense is facing the tied for dead last yards per completion Lions.
If you look at SF's defense in that stat they are number 3, KC is 2 and Baltimore is 1. Detroit's last two opponents were ranked 20th (Bucs) and 27th (Rams). Huge step up. Interestingly when they faced KC they won, when they faced Baltimore they lost by 32 points. What's the difference? SF is close to Baltimore in offensive stats, KC isn't. And if you remember that KC game the WRs dropped long passes, one of which would have set up a game winning field goal.
If you're betting Detroit you are basically pinning your hopes on Purdy NOT reverting back to the form he had most of the season which IMO is unlikely given he gets Deebo back and a dry day in the bay.
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