Contrarian plays

Here's the games where I'm fading the heavy public consensus favorites:

Bears +7.5 

Cardinals +7 (bought 2 points)

Pitt +3 (bought 1.5 points)

Rams +3 (bought 2 points)

Denver -2.5

Buffalo -7

Under Phi/KC, waiting for total to go up as high as possible with pregame hype. Now at 45.5, prefer under at 47 or higher.

Those are the ones I bet. Also looking at Sea/LAR under 46.5 but haven't bet yet. 

@Sidehatch

 Particularly like Chicago.  I wonder about Detroit motivation off that Charger slugfest and the despised Packers coming in on Thanksgiving. QB Fields to return, he is an impossible matchup. Good luck with them all!

Good luck Sidehatch.  

@Sidehatch

I also really like the PHI/KC under.  After last year's SB score-fest, I expect the square money to pour in on the over.  KC D this year is giving up less than 16 ppg.  I cap this as a 24-20 type of game.  GL

SH 

To your point, Adam Chernoff on Simple Handicap has been pointing out that the weather is worth keeping an eye on. May be cold and windy. I could totally see square money pour in on the over as the hype machine builds it up from Sunday to Monday. 

Last year I didn't bet the under in the SB, but I did for Bengals/Rams SB and felt pretty good about that one. Takes some stones to take the under in a big game, but can often leave you ahead of the pack.

@Trooper64

 So I guess I'm late to the party! The Bears line was originally Bears +10, and a ton of sharps poured money on Chicago, causing the line to drop 2-2.5 points. 

Really, really nice week, @Sidehatch

are u just using the covers consensus?

Sweet week.  Congratulations.

Let's do it again in week 12.

@Sidehatch