Posted:
#1
Making a special writeup for this one (which I have never done before) because I strongly believe Dallas +7 is the rightful side in this game. Usually I have a hard time deciding.
At first glance you look at this game (myself included, I thought Rams originally) and say Rams are at home, they're a very strong 13-3 team who are considered Superbowl contenders, they clearly have superior talent compared to Dallas. Smooth sailing for the Rams.
But if you dig deeper you find that Dallas is a matchup nightmare for this team despite inferior talent. Disregarding the lesser talent factor, I can't think of a team who is a worse matchup for the Rams from a puristic matchup perspective. The Rams defense is about average or slightly below average overall. The problem is they rank among the absolute worst teams in the NFL defending the run. That's a serious problem when you're going to play Dallas, a team which is centered around feeding one of the very best RBs (possibly THE best) in the NFL, Elliott. You might think it's simple "oh, just shutdown Elliott and they're doomed." Nope, you think the entire NFL doesn't know that by now? Yet Dallas has still found tons of success with him. It takes a very strong rushing defense to keep the Dallas rushing attack down with that offensive line & Elliott. Dak has been playing pretty well recently and last week vs Seattle he showed me he is not going to collapse under the pressure of playing in big games. Let's also not forget this passing attack has been dangerous at times with Amari Cooper, he is such an asset to this offense. I see a balanced attack where they feed Elliott a lot but also make some plays in the passing game. I don't think too much will need to be asked of Dak in this game, just play like you have been.
Now as for the Rams offense vs Dallas defense...
The Rams offense has shown serious vulnerability to defenses that give them a lot of resistance. They were completely shut down by the Bears defense in Chicago which is kind of excusable since they're the best defense, but not really. They only scored 6 points in a major game there where they should be looking to make a statement about how great their offense is. Then the following week the Eagles waltz in to LA and dominate the Rams on both sides of the ball. Anyone who watched that game knows the Rams had a horrible time on offense in that game, let alone defense. Jared Goff struggled very badly and I never felt like the Rams were really in that game aside from when they were up 7-3 super early. Goff was surprisingly bad against this defense that actually gave them some solid resistance.
The Dallas defense is one of the tougher units to go up against in the NFL. We have already seen proof of this when they totally shut down the Saints offense. I agree with Elliott when he said in the interview after beating up the Seahawks that he thinks they are a team no one really wants to see.
Unlike Russell Wilson, who is incredibly clutch in big games, I don't have a lot of trust in Goff. Wilson made 2 incredible super difficult key throws to score his team's only TDs against Dallas last week. Dallas really dominated that game and the amazing clutchness of Russell Wilson was their only saving grace.
And I haven't even mentioned the fact that this could kind of turn into a Dallas home game because there will probably be more Dallas fans showing up to this game than Rams fans. As CMJohnson mentioned they also already have a base in southern Cali where they do training camps. I see most things stacked in favor of the Cowboys in this game.
As long as Dallas can prevent Goff's long passes I think they have great chances to win this game, especially considering they're only given a 25% chance to win on the +300 5Dimes moneyline.
I'm certainly riding with Dallas +7 and smaller on the ML.
Good luck this weekend everyone whether you agree or not! That's just my take on this game.
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