Posted:
#1
Denver looks to be in a good spot tonight. I use a Yards per play formula and only use it when there is a 60/40 public split or more, and always bet the team that goes against the public. I'm hitting 80% this year so far.
KC YPP: 6.8
Den YPP: 5.8
Kc defense. YPP: 6.7
Den defense YPP: 5.5
KC delta = .1
Den delta = .3
Total delta = .2 favoring Denver
.2/.15 = roughly a 1 point spread favoring Denver
+3 points home field advantage.
Denver should be +4 in this game
I'm taking Denevr ML
Good luck all
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