Posted:
#1
This is a pure points math model to gauge a teams performance on the road(Denver) and Home ( Cleveland). The 2 road games Cleveland has played on the road vs 2 bad defenses are totally irrelevant.
Denver L2 away:( Pure points math model)
Team TruePoints OPR (opp.power rating)
Oakland 6-10 16.5
Detroit 14-12 19.5
T,D. > 20-22 18 < average o.p.r)
20-22= -2 +6( we add 3pts for ea.road gm) = 4 div by 2 = +2
aopr 18+2= 20
Denver is beating their a.o.p.r(18). by 2 points per game
18+2 = Denvers road rating 20
___________________________________________
Cleveland L2 Home
Oak 13-27 16.5
Tenn 14-14 15.5
27-41 16
27-41= -14 (subtract 3pts for ea home game) =( -6)= -20 div by 2 = -10
Browns are losing to their a.o.p.r (16) by 10 pppg
16-10 = (6) add 3 back on for HFA) = 9
Clev home rating > 9
Denvers road rating 20
11 pt differential.in Denver favor.
Not taking to much from Clev's last 2 away games vs bad defenses. There back home now vs a solid defense. McNown played vs Oakland last game@ home..a game they lost by 13 "pure" points. Then he went on the road and became this hero vs 2 bad defenses with some lucky plays. I don't care how Manning looked in a div game last week vs Oakland or vs Detroit. Yes..2 bad teams. However, the model clearly shows if you look at what Clev did vs 2 bad teams last 2 home games. Their in the negative point differential by 10 pure points per game and Denver is in the positive point differential by 2 pppg. Denvers average opponent rating 18. Cleveland's average opponent 16. Denver is beating their sorry azz road opp's by 2 pppg giving them a 20 road rating. Clev is losing to their sorry azz opp's@ home by 10 pppg giving them a 9 rating with the home filed advantage added in. That's an 11 point advantage for Denver, who does have the better defense. McNown comes back down to earth..int's/ fumbles /pressures here or there vs Denver defense?.
Denver is 6-1 vs opp off a SU dog win. May not mean anything in this game..but it is an 85% prop. McNown looks pretty good and Manning looks terrible..? Im looking for a low scoring game..denver by 7-10
Denver -3.5
bol to everyone
Denver L2 away:( Pure points math model)
Team TruePoints OPR (opp.power rating)
Oakland 6-10 16.5
Detroit 14-12 19.5
T,D. > 20-22 18 < average o.p.r)
20-22= -2 +6( we add 3pts for ea.road gm) = 4 div by 2 = +2
aopr 18+2= 20
Denver is beating their a.o.p.r(18). by 2 points per game
18+2 = Denvers road rating 20
___________________________________________
Cleveland L2 Home
Oak 13-27 16.5
Tenn 14-14 15.5
27-41 16
27-41= -14 (subtract 3pts for ea home game) =( -6)= -20 div by 2 = -10
Browns are losing to their a.o.p.r (16) by 10 pppg
16-10 = (6) add 3 back on for HFA) = 9
Clev home rating > 9
Denvers road rating 20
11 pt differential.in Denver favor.
Not taking to much from Clev's last 2 away games vs bad defenses. There back home now vs a solid defense. McNown played vs Oakland last game@ home..a game they lost by 13 "pure" points. Then he went on the road and became this hero vs 2 bad defenses with some lucky plays. I don't care how Manning looked in a div game last week vs Oakland or vs Detroit. Yes..2 bad teams. However, the model clearly shows if you look at what Clev did vs 2 bad teams last 2 home games. Their in the negative point differential by 10 pure points per game and Denver is in the positive point differential by 2 pppg. Denvers average opponent rating 18. Cleveland's average opponent 16. Denver is beating their sorry azz road opp's by 2 pppg giving them a 20 road rating. Clev is losing to their sorry azz opp's@ home by 10 pppg giving them a 9 rating with the home filed advantage added in. That's an 11 point advantage for Denver, who does have the better defense. McNown comes back down to earth..int's/ fumbles /pressures here or there vs Denver defense?.
Denver is 6-1 vs opp off a SU dog win. May not mean anything in this game..but it is an 85% prop. McNown looks pretty good and Manning looks terrible..? Im looking for a low scoring game..denver by 7-10
Denver -3.5
bol to everyone 0
Defense
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