Divisional - The Zebras

Ravens / Bills 

Carl Cheffers  

• Home teams have performed remarkably well in Carl Cheffers officiated games with a 90-57 (61%) record since the start of the 2016 season including an 11-5 record in 2024.
• Home underdogs are 24-14-3 ATS (64%) with Cheffers since 2016, including 2-2-1 ATS in 2024.
• In the Josh Allen era, the Bills are 8-2 in Carl Cheffers officiated games. Three of those were playoff contests: the Bills' 17-3 win over the Ravens in the 2020 Divisional Round, a Bills loss to Cincinnati in 2022, and a 42-16 Wild Card win over the Steelers last season

• The Ravens co-rank No. 1 for roughing the passer penalties. Despite the narrative that Patrick Mahomes is the primary beneficiary of these calls, Josh Allen has received far more beneficial calls throughout his career. In 2024, Buffalo ranked third as a beneficiary of these calls. Cheffers’ crew called some of the fewest penalties in this category this season, co-ranking last in the NFL with the John Hussey crew. Cheffers also co-ranked last calling unnecessary roughness penalties this season.
• Cheffers' crew called 22.8% of their overall penalties via defensive holding and defensive pass interference, well above the league average of 13.8%. Two of Cheffers’ regulars will be patrolling the back end of the field in this game with an addition from the Brad Rogers crew. It just so happens that the Rogers and Cheffers crews rank No. 1 and No. 2 respectively for defensive pass interference penalties per game this season. There was a major decline in this penalty category last week. It will be interesting to see if that continues in this game, given the season numbers associated with these guys in charge of proceedings.
• Baltimore is a top-five penalized defense for both defensive holding and defensive pass interference. The Ravens had one Cheffers officiated contest this season. They were penalized four times for defensive pass interference in their 30-23 victory at the Chargers on Monday Night Football.
• The Bills defense also ranks in the top 10 for defensive pass interference but ranks 30th in the NFL for defensive holding.

Found this nugget particularly interesting....

• The NFL mixes the highest graded officials every postseason to create All-Star officiating crews. That's really not the case for this game. It is primarily a Chefers regular season crew with one official apiece from the Adrian Hill and Brad Rogers crews. That raises a question. Was the Cheffers crew so outstandingly good in 2024 that the NFL felt compelled to have the vast majority of its regular members on this game? To put this in perspective, Ron Torbert is assigned to Lions versus Commanders and Clay Martin to the Chiefs versus Texans Divisional Round matchups. Not one of their regular crew members is part of the playoff assignment crew.
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Texans / Chiefs

Clay Martin

• The Chiefs are 6-0 on the moneyline and 2-4 ATS with Clay Martin, favored by an average of 7.5 points in those contests. The Chiefs' most recent outing with Martin was their 19-17 Week 13 Black Friday game against the Raiders. That game ended controversially with the illegal shift call on Las Vegas with 10 seconds left in the fourth quarter. That resulted in a Chiefs fumble recovery, securing the team's eleventh win of the season.
• In Clay Martin’s four playoff games as a head referee, home teams are 4-0 on the moneyline and 2-2 ATS, favored by an average of 4.5 points in those contests. Most recently was the Texans' 45-14 Wild card victory over the Browns last season. Martin’s first playoff game as a head referee was here at Arrowhead Stadium in 2021, a 22-17 Chiefs victory over the Cleveland Browns.

• The Clay Martin-led crew called the fewest defensive pass interference penalties in the 2024 season. It's a small sample size, but that specific penalty category declined significantly in the Wild Card Round compared to regular season numbers. I believe that led, in part, to the majority of games staying under the total last week. The makeup of this crew has the Brad Rogers official patrolling the secondary. They led the league in defensive pass interference. It is ultimately Martin’s crew, so we have to assume there will be an effort to refrain from calling too many defensive penalties.
• Offensive penalties accounted for 58.5% of Martin’s penalties in 2024, ranking him second in this category behind the Shawn Hochuli-led crew.
• The all-important false start/offensive holding combination accounted for 47.4% of Clay Martin’s penalties, ranking him No.1 in this category. The Hochuli, Allen, and Blakeman crews all were top five ranked for false starts in 2024. Martin’s crew ranked No. 1 for offensive holding penalties.
• Offensive holding is without a doubt the No. 1 issue for the Chiefs as it was in 2023. A major factor in the Chiefs' postseason run last season was the decline in offensive holding penalties, which all but disappeared through January and February.
• The Texans are an above average offense for both offensive holding and false starts.
• The Chiefs rank 30th in pre-snap penalties per game. The pre-snap discipline has served them well throughout their run in high-leverage playoff games and will do so again this postseason
• The Clay Martin crew is calling just 17.3% of their overall penalties on third down plays, the second-fewest of any officiating crew this season on third down.
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Rams / Eagles

• Home teams were 3-13 on the moneyline and 4-11-1 ATS with Shawn Smith in 2023
• Home teams are 42-53-1 on the moneyline and 39-54-3 ATS in Smith's career
• Shawn Smith was 11-6 Under in 2023 and is 49-47-1 Under the total in his career

Excellent info & BOL this weekend kcblitzkrieg 

The NFL will keep the Bills in this game with DPI's and offensive holding. Ravens just gotta keep emotions in check when they get the shit calls and not let it get it to their head and affect their game. I know it's tough.

Most penalized team despite going 12-5. Hope the ref doesn't ruin a good match and keep throwing their dirty yellow panties around. I will be scrutinizing these calls closely with magnifying glass...

Thanks buddy 

@kcblitzkrieg

 Ron Torbert’s crew is horrendous normally.

Appreciate yr deep dives!!!..Ty and GL Blitz!..

@kcblitzkrieg

 Good stuff.

One of the sources I get has each crew broken down into graph form and histogram form.

It is pretty neat to see some of the crews disparities, like the PI calls you mentioned.

This are pretty useful in MLB.  

I look at them in the NFL from time to time.  But never figured them into it much.

But very interesting.

Two of the things I like to look at is 'late game% calls' and 'RZ% calls' and where the crews rank.  

For example, of these three you listed -- Cheffers and Martin's calls were below the NFL average call%, but Smith's calls were above the average.

Neat stuff 

Nice input 

This is a great thread. 
Figuring in officiating crews is actually a great move in your cap.

never think to do it, but certain propensities of crews can and indeed do advantage certain teams depending on their tendencies, strengths, weaknesses regarding penalties 

Thanks for the info

Leaning Bills Over and KC under

this helps a lot 

info courtesy of Mr. Warren Sharpe.  

if you need any indication that you gotta include ref capping as part of your repertoire during the playoffs just take a look at the Chiefs / Texans in game thread comments. 

https://www.covers.com/forum/nfl-betting-21/texans-vs-chiefs-in-game-live-103920302/7

Good luck to all on this weekends plays 

Old School Crew vs New School Crew, only school lets them play more I guess is what I’m reading.