Divisional Picks with insight

Texans @ Ravens

Stroud has been impressive this year really turning this Texans team around and moving things in the right direction.  Certainly they have some momentum but I think this weekend is going to be a very tough matchup for this team.  For the record I was on the Texans last weekend but analyzing the statistics here it just feels like there is a very wide gap between these two teams.  I like basing most of my data off DVOA and particularly when it comes to the playoffs weighted DVOA as it truly represents how a team is performing as of late.  If we are including wildcard weekend for the Texans weighted DVOA has the Ravens ranked #1 in the NFL by a pretty wide margin at 53.2% overall versus the Texans 7.8% overall.  #1 in NFL on defense and #3 on offense.  This gap in DVOA is by far and away the biggest this weekend among all the matchups.  Oddsmakers set the line at -9.5 even though a lot of the data I’m seeing is suggesting this number should be higher.  Given the recent performance of the Texans and the fact that oddsmakers are looking to keep the action balanced I’m not shocked they released this where they did cause the action has turned out to be pretty balanced so far around 50/50 currently. The DVOA data coupled with the fact that I believe the Ravens have all the right motivational reasons to be on their “A” game given their early exits in the past will be all the more reason we get the best version of the Ravens on Saturday.

This will be my biggest play this weekend.

Pick - Ravens -9.5 (4 unit play)

More to come…

Good luck Pk.  

Wanted to include a few thoughts that I didn't include above as I can see some of these being contested points on the Texans/Ravens game.  Obviously when we look at weighted DVOA that does include some recent matchups where CJ Stroud was not playing and Case Keenum was the fill in so that certainly needs to be factored into the evaluation.  My overall opinion is still the same though.  If we look at this at a more granular level it might knock the Texans up about 5-10 percentage points in overall DVOA when I was only evaluating recent games where Stroud did play. Even if we factor that in though I’m still not coming to the conclusion though that the spread for this game shouldn’t be higher.

Just wanted to make sure I mention this so that I am giving both sides a fair consideration.

so, on there recent playoff losses they were not motivated?  I get all your points and good luck to you.  I think people are sleeping on the Texans Defense 

@Teemancy

 Decent run defense even tho the colts ran wild on them . Pass defense is definitely suspect tho yardage wise . Redzone defense middle of the pack 

@Teemancy

 Not saying they were not motivated in those previous playoff appearances.  Hell everyone should be motivated at least to some degree but I do believe there are teams that are hungrier and want it more than others and you can see it being evident on the field at times.  Guys like Lamar have been in spots similiar to this when he was younger only to fail.  Those are learning blocks for guys like him.  They were in this exact same spot when he was younger and had a home game after a bye week and got taken out right away.  Maybe motivation is not necessarily the right words as much I am highlighting his past experience.  My feeling is he’ll be more mentally for the moment. 

stack             bills            pal

Packers @ 49ers

Don’t feel this opening line of 10 points is giving the Packers any respect for what they’ve accomplished recently.  Sure the 49ers are a very good team but you can’t find a team that has moved their DVOA more than the Packers.  In weighted DVOA they are #4 in the NFL at 16.4%.  In the last 3 games this team is off the charts especially on offense where they’ve now climbed to #2 in weighted DVOA.  The 49ers are at 37.5% in weighted DVOA and they have been unarguably the more consistent team throughout the year but I like to ride with the hot team who has played arguably better than the niners as of late.

Unlike the Texans/Ravens game where the differential in DVOA is a very wide gap this game is closer especially if we get the version of the Packers over the last 3 games and not the team that played let down ball against the Panthers, Buccaneers, and Giants.  Give me the hot team and the points with a little sprinkle on the money line.  Won’t be surprised if Packers shock the world again.

Pick - Packers +10 (-115) 2.5 units and ML +375 for 0.5u

2-0 ATS and small loss on packers money line

Buccaneers @ Lions

Weighted DVOA is very close between both these teams with the Bucs at 5.9% and Lions a little over 12%.  I was anticipating fair market value for this line being 3.5 to maybe 4 at most.  With a few sites putting this out at 6.5 I had to bite on this line and will be backing the Bucs.

Certainly the Lions have a lot to play for and will be emotional game for them but Baker mayfield has a lot to play for as well and his future with the franchise and his contract situation rides heavily on this game.  The Buccaneers have been trending while the Lions have kind of trended down recently.  All the more reason I like the Bucs as they seem to be the hotter team right now and the line seems to present value.

Pick - Buccaneers +6.5 (2 unit play)

Good luck to all 

GL.