Used to be, the "common knowledge" was to bet the rested home teams in the divisional rounds. Let's see if that holds true in the last 10-15 years:
from VSIN:
General Divisional Playoff ATS Trends
The outright winner owns a 34-11-1 ATS (75.6%) mark in the last 46 divisional playoff games.
Let that sink in. Pick the outright winner of the game, and they have covered over 3 out of 4.
(I once asked the hottest waitress at Caesar's Sports Book in Vegas what her best gambling advise was. She said a local betting pro told her "Just pick the winner." Sounds easy enough.)
Continuing...
This is actually well below the 2023-24 regular season standard of just short of 80%, and if you recall, in last week’s wild card article, outright winners were on a much stronger 58-9-1 ATS run and proceeded to go 5-1 ATS last weekend. The high volume of lofty point spreads obviously contributes to this.
Since 2009, home teams are on a convincing run of 40-16 SU and 28-27-1 ATS in the divisional round. They have also been 17-14-1 ATS in the last eight years, re-emphasizing the importance of not only a home-field advantage but the extra week of rest and health that comes for teams securing a bye in the wild card round. Of course, for a fourth straight season, only the two #1 seeds enjoyed the luxury of having last weekend to rest. There have only been four road favorites in the last 27 years of the divisional playoffs, and San Francisco was the first to win in that scenario in 2014, beating Carolina 23-10. The other three lost outright and ATS, including Atlanta, who last came up short 15-10 as a field goal favorite at #1 seeded Philadelphia in 2018. Unless we see a huge swing in any game or any late-breaking injury news, this trend will go untested again in 2024. Point spreads have proven to be a strong giveaway as to which team should win in divisional playoff games, as home favorites of 5.5 points or less (or underdog) are just 16-14 SU and 12-18 ATS (40%) since 2006, while those laying 6-points or more are 30-11 SU and 19-21-1 ATS in that same span. That’s a difference of almost 20% outright and 8% against the point spread.
Double-digit home favorites in the divisional round are on a 6-1 SU and ATS surge. Tennessee’s upset of Baltimore in 2019 is the only conflicting result in that group.
Road teams have proven to be worthy bets in the divisional round when underdogs in the +3.5 to +9.5 range, going 26-16-1 ATS (61.9%) in the last 43 tries (but only 14-29 SU).
Used to be, the "common knowledge" was to bet the rested home teams in the divisional rounds. Let's see if that holds true in the last 10-15 years:
from VSIN:
General Divisional Playoff ATS Trends
The outright winner owns a 34-11-1 ATS (75.6%) mark in the last 46 divisional playoff games.
Let that sink in. Pick the outright winner of the game, and they have covered over 3 out of 4.
(I once asked the hottest waitress at Caesar's Sports Book in Vegas what her best gambling advise was. She said a local betting pro told her "Just pick the winner." Sounds easy enough.)
Continuing...
This is actually well below the 2023-24 regular season standard of just short of 80%, and if you recall, in last week’s wild card article, outright winners were on a much stronger 58-9-1 ATS run and proceeded to go 5-1 ATS last weekend. The high volume of lofty point spreads obviously contributes to this.
Since 2009, home teams are on a convincing run of 40-16 SU and 28-27-1 ATS in the divisional round. They have also been 17-14-1 ATS in the last eight years, re-emphasizing the importance of not only a home-field advantage but the extra week of rest and health that comes for teams securing a bye in the wild card round. Of course, for a fourth straight season, only the two #1 seeds enjoyed the luxury of having last weekend to rest. There have only been four road favorites in the last 27 years of the divisional playoffs, and San Francisco was the first to win in that scenario in 2014, beating Carolina 23-10. The other three lost outright and ATS, including Atlanta, who last came up short 15-10 as a field goal favorite at #1 seeded Philadelphia in 2018. Unless we see a huge swing in any game or any late-breaking injury news, this trend will go untested again in 2024. Point spreads have proven to be a strong giveaway as to which team should win in divisional playoff games, as home favorites of 5.5 points or less (or underdog) are just 16-14 SU and 12-18 ATS (40%) since 2006, while those laying 6-points or more are 30-11 SU and 19-21-1 ATS in that same span. That’s a difference of almost 20% outright and 8% against the point spread.
Double-digit home favorites in the divisional round are on a 6-1 SU and ATS surge. Tennessee’s upset of Baltimore in 2019 is the only conflicting result in that group.
Road teams have proven to be worthy bets in the divisional round when underdogs in the +3.5 to +9.5 range, going 26-16-1 ATS (61.9%) in the last 43 tries (but only 14-29 SU).
Road teams have proven to be worthy bets in the divisional round when underdogs in the +3.5 to +9.5 range, going 26-16-1 ATS (61.9%) in the last 43 tries (but only 14-29 SU).
Likely the fate of the Buccaneers today. Lose, but by less than a touchdown.
Road teams have proven to be worthy bets in the divisional round when underdogs in the +3.5 to +9.5 range, going 26-16-1 ATS (61.9%) in the last 43 tries (but only 14-29 SU).
Likely the fate of the Buccaneers today. Lose, but by less than a touchdown.
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