It looks like we are in for a treat this weekend with some great matchups. I have gone back and watched the games from the past weekend to really analyze all of the teams before making my picks/predictions. I have also looked at some of the stats from the regular season and previous matchups. I welcome all meaningful comments in this thread that will help us win this weekend.
Rams +7
Bills -2
Browns +10
Saints -3
LA Rams @ Green Bay Packers
What a matchup. A team used to playing in good, warm weather climate traveling to Wisconsin to face off against the number one seeded team at Lambeau field. Aaron Rodgers is arguably the best QB in the game right now. He is playing MVP caliber football and boasts and impressive 70% completion percentage with 48 TDs and only 5 interceptions from the regular season. When he doesn't turn the ball over the Packers are extremely hard to beat. On the flip side we look at Jared Goff. He has been playing atrocious lately and the Rams are lucky that he was able to do just enough the past week to beat the Seahawks. Clearly, GB has the edge at the QB position. But, this game will come down to more than just QB play. The Rams have the #1 defense and we know that defense wins championships. Jalen Ramsey, the guy I was hoping my Dallas Cowboys would pick over Ezekial Elliot with the #4 pick in the 2016 draft has been a shutdown corner in every sense of the word. I look for him to slow down (not stop) Davante Adams.
My question is: who have the Packers beat in the regular season? A bunch of mediocre sub 500 teams. They had three losses at the hands of Bucs, Colts, and Vikings. Both the Bucs and Ind have solid defenses, a necessary ingredient to at least slow down the Packers, a team that is used to playing from ahead. This is where LA Rams have a big advantage. The Rams defense is ranked # 1 in TOTAL YARDS, PASS YARDS and POINTS SCORED! They are also ranked #3 in rush yards. They have what it takes to slow down Green Bay and get stops. They also have the #1 most disruptive defensive player in the league in Aaron Donald. That is why the injury to David Bakhtiari is so huge because at least the all pro tackle had a shot at trying to slow down Aaron Donald. That is no longer the case. If you look back the past several years and watch some of the games that Aaron Rodgers really struggled - it was against good defenses who had a pass rush and made things difficult on him (the Panthers from a few years ago comes to mind). Yes, he can get out of the pocket and make plays. But making him uncomfortable and forcing him to make a few bad throws or forcing a turnover will be key. The Rams will have to do this in order to have a shot at covering.
The Packers defense is no joke either. They are ranked 9th in total yards, 13th in rush yards allowed, and 7th in pass yards. Obviously the Rams rely heavily on a solid running attack to set up their passing game and play action plays. Sean McVay is a master game planner and uses a variety of different formations to run running plays, play action, mis-direction runs, and screens which play into the Rams strengths and will make it difficult on the Green Bay Packers aggressive defense. So, GB has the obvious advantage because of their QB and their home field advantage. But the Rams have the #1 defense and their strengths play into the Packers weaknesses. The Rams will have to run the ball and put together long drives that will tire out the packers defense in order to keep Rodgers off the field if they are going to win this game. Jared Goff will have to manage the game and not try to do too much or turn the ball over. 7 points is a lot and with the way the Packers play down to their level of competition, I have to roll with Jalen Ramsey, Aaron Donald, and the Rams defense to keep this game close. Oh, and the Rams are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in January.
Rams +7 
Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills
Full disclaimer - I have futures bets on the Bucs (8/1) and Bills (also 8/1) to win the super bowl for a pretty penny. I have been a fan of the Bills especially as of late when they carried their momentum into the playoffs. The maturation process of Josh Allen as a QB has been fun to watch and the difference with him this year compared to the previous two years is his passing accuracy. He is throwing a career best 69.2% completion percentage and taking care of the ball (37 TD to 10 INT ratio). He is also doing this against the blitz. When he is blitz, he is able to move around and out of the pocket to find the open receiver. He was 6/8 last week when he was blitzed by the Colts. Why does this matter? Because Baltimores defense blitzes a lot. The Baltimore D looked very impressive last week - especially their run stopping attack and the play by both of their corners Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey.
Why would anyone bet against Baltimore? They have a Super bowl winning coach, and MVP quarterback, and one of the best defenses in the league. Their defense is ranked 7th in total yards and 6th in pass yardage. They are 8th in rush yards and 2nd in points scored! This is a classic offense vs. defense matchup as the Bills hold the #2 offense in the league in terms of points scored. Although Cole Beasley and Stefon Diggs were banged up, neither seemed deterred based on last weeks game. If Buffalo is to have a chance at winning this game, both guys have to show up and have monster games. The injury to Zach Moss is HUGE. He was a bruising back and a more reliable target out of the backfield and in short yardage situations when compared to Singletary, who is prone to fumbling the ball.
Can Lamar Jackson beat this team through the air? The Bills will stack the box and force him to since their rushing defense is ranked #17 whereas the Baltimore rushing offense is ranked #1. No doubt, the Ravens will run the ball and will have some success, but I wouldn't be surprise if the Bills defense looks early similar to the way the Ravens looked last week against Derrick Henry. How will the #32 ranked passing offense of Baltimore fair against the Bills pass defense (#13). Yes, Lamar finally can claim that he has a playoff win, but does he have the ability to propel his team to a second straight playoff win? He will need his arm to do that. Really a tough game to cap but I have to go with the Bills here who will win by a late game FG.
@Ih8coldweather
What if Wink doesn't blitz at his customarily 30% number? Say he gets pressure with his front 4 and plays zone / base def 90% of the time against Allen. Essentially limiting the number of opportunities Allen has to make plays in his favor? This is what teams do to Mahomes.... just a thought.
The Packers defense is no joke either. They are ranked 9th in total yards, 13th in rush yards allowed, and 7th in pass yards. Obviously the Rams rely heavily on a solid running attack to set up their passing game and play action plays. Sean McVay is a master game planner and uses a variety of different formations to run running plays, play action, mis-direction runs, and screens which play into the Rams strengths and will make it difficult on the Green Bay Packers aggressive defense. So, GB has the obvious advantage because of their QB and their home field advantage. But the Rams have the #1 defense and their strengths play into the Packers weaknesses. The Rams will have to run the ball and put together long drives that will tire out the packers defense in order to keep Rodgers off the field if they are going to win this game. Jared Goff will have to manage the game and not try to do too much or turn the ball over. 7 points is a lot and with the way the Packers play down to their level of competition, I have to roll with Jalen Ramsey, Aaron Donald, and the Rams defense to keep this game close. Oh, and the Rams are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in January.
Rams +7
Sean McVay is hardly a master game planner. The first thing he said in an interview after the superbowl was that BB completely out coached him.
Now, I'm not saying he didn't learn, or that he couldn't be a GREAT coach. I just don't think he should be given that credit just yet.
Sean McVay is 32-1 when leading at halftime. Does Jared Goff need to be Patrick Mahomes? No, he just needs to manage the game and not over-extend himself. The Packers are good. They are not great. They have a mediocre defense at best which above a stage pass rush due to the smith brothers. But they have leaks and can be exploited. This team has been known to underperform especially if they get down. Just look at the past few years. Every time they get punched in the mouth they fold and Rodgers pouts. They are Ana nice average regular season team that just cannot close the deal in the playoffs.
Aaron Donald was interviewed today and he said he felt GREAT. That is good news for the Rams. Defense wins championships. Not sure the Rams will win the SB or even go to the super bowl but they do have the defense to make things difficult on GB. I certainly don’t think they’ll lose by a TD to GB. Not the same GB team that barely beat Jax this season. Still rolling with the Rams
Let’s gooooooo.
I have a good feeling about the Rams keeping this game close. The Packers played in a Division that had teams with *horrible* defenses and during the regular season the Packers only played 3 teams with a top 10 defense. They lost two of those games (IND and TB).
Ramsey won’t let DA go off for 3 TDs and Aaron Donald will be pressuring Rodgers allllll day.
well Seattle gave the game to La, u got to love the rams defense that is what why they are playing today,
this is a difficult game to cap for me, i have no dog in the fight, My cowboys hopefully will turn the corner next year,
thinking g bay money line ,game could come down to a Field goal late or late td by Rams to cover back door.
great thread
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