Covers.....I am excited for the divisional round and hoping to engage with you smart cappers about the games that we have lined up for this week. I had a mediocre week (1-2) this past week. I won the Bills bet because of a teaser with Bama (large) but lost Tennessee Titans bet and changed my pick last minute from the Browns to Steelers after deciding that Stefanski not coaching would probably affect the outcome of the week. Oh well! A new week means new opportunities. This week I like the following card:
Rams +7
Bills - 1.5
Browns + 10
Saints -3
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Covers.....I am excited for the divisional round and hoping to engage with you smart cappers about the games that we have lined up for this week. I had a mediocre week (1-2) this past week. I won the Bills bet because of a teaser with Bama (large) but lost Tennessee Titans bet and changed my pick last minute from the Browns to Steelers after deciding that Stefanski not coaching would probably affect the outcome of the week. Oh well! A new week means new opportunities. This week I like the following card:
Rams Defense will keep them in it. Question is the status of Goff, Kupp, and most importantly Donald. Cold weather in GB is a big deterent as well for them. Vintage Rodgers is playing as good or better than any other qb remaining. The line seems right, tough call. I'd tease GB if it were me.
I really like that Buffalo squad BUT, holy chit, this Ravens squad is peaking at the right time and they look like the Defense we have seen the past 10 years. Defense wins championships and Lamar and this D will take care of them this weekend.
I simply cannot go against KC at home no matter how many points the Browns get. Andy Reid has an impeccable record on a bye week and they're going to be locked and loaded with a week off to prepare. Reid, Mahomes, and the boys roll.
Coin toss on that TB/NO game. Very hard to beat a team three times in a year. I can make a case for both sides here. Hard pass.
Good luck with all your plays!!!!!
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@Ih8coldweather
Rams Defense will keep them in it. Question is the status of Goff, Kupp, and most importantly Donald. Cold weather in GB is a big deterent as well for them. Vintage Rodgers is playing as good or better than any other qb remaining. The line seems right, tough call. I'd tease GB if it were me.
I really like that Buffalo squad BUT, holy chit, this Ravens squad is peaking at the right time and they look like the Defense we have seen the past 10 years. Defense wins championships and Lamar and this D will take care of them this weekend.
I simply cannot go against KC at home no matter how many points the Browns get. Andy Reid has an impeccable record on a bye week and they're going to be locked and loaded with a week off to prepare. Reid, Mahomes, and the boys roll.
Coin toss on that TB/NO game. Very hard to beat a team three times in a year. I can make a case for both sides here. Hard pass.
Hey man, here are my thoughts on your picks. Tail or Fade as you please
Rams +7: From a contrarian standpoint, this is a smart pick, currently being the key operative. I see 80% money on GB ml and 83% on GB ATS at the moment. If by game time this becomes more evenly split, I would lean GB -7 because of GB having the league MVP playing in the confines of home in a cold weather grass field - GB at home playing on grass is an edge over an artificial turf teams like the Rams. GB could face a banged up QB in Goff (thumb) or a true backup in Wolford. League MVPs also typically do not drop their first playoff game. The Rams may need a defensive masterpiece to hang in this game. If John Wolford goes against Aaron Rodgers, and Rams defense cannot successfully pressure Rodgers in the pocket, do you like Rams hanging within 1 score on the road?
Bills -1.5: I think this is a dangerous selection as the Ravens have the best point differential margin in the NFL, a QB who has finally gotten pressure off his back of not winning a playoff game (Lamar can now play freely), a super bowl winning coach, and above all, a very strong defense. Bills pass defense is mediocre and can be had as shown by the Colts late comeback and near upset. Ravens also played in arguably a much tougher division that produced 3 playoff teams where as the Bills played in one of the weakest divisions. If the Ravens win and if the Chiefs win (highly likely), it would produce a matchup of two former MVPs which would be HUGE ratings for the NFL. This is the most suitable outcome for the NFL. A Bills/Chiefs AFC title game IMO would not be nearly as appealing. This game is also fairly evenly split from a wagering standpoint. Why would Vegas have a 13-3 team as just a FG favorite to open the line and it drops to 1.5 in a matter of days?
Browns +10: Chiefs over their last 8 games have jumped out to big leads and then squandered the leads as they do not keep their foot on the gas, and more interested in preserving a win. This is evident by their putrid ATS record despite a 14-2 win-loss record. I can see the Browns covering or getting a backdoor cover late with Chiefs playing prevent defense. A Browns outright win would be shocking. I like the ATS pick
Saints -3: I'm quite uncertain about this game at the moment and need to do more homework, but currently 68% of the money is on Bucs ML, and 73% of the money is on Bucs ATS. This is a good sign for the Saints ATS pick if the numbers remain similar come game time. The betting public is likely tailing TB12 given his playoff success and possibly going with the notion that the Saints beating the Bucs 3 times in 1 season is improbable. I plan to wait this game out until right before kickoff. If the betting percentages are still lopsided for the Bucs, I will also go with the Saints. At the moment this pick looks good
Chalks, Dogs, Overs, Unders, Props....I love 'em all
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@Ih8coldweather
Hey man, here are my thoughts on your picks. Tail or Fade as you please
Rams +7: From a contrarian standpoint, this is a smart pick, currently being the key operative. I see 80% money on GB ml and 83% on GB ATS at the moment. If by game time this becomes more evenly split, I would lean GB -7 because of GB having the league MVP playing in the confines of home in a cold weather grass field - GB at home playing on grass is an edge over an artificial turf teams like the Rams. GB could face a banged up QB in Goff (thumb) or a true backup in Wolford. League MVPs also typically do not drop their first playoff game. The Rams may need a defensive masterpiece to hang in this game. If John Wolford goes against Aaron Rodgers, and Rams defense cannot successfully pressure Rodgers in the pocket, do you like Rams hanging within 1 score on the road?
Bills -1.5: I think this is a dangerous selection as the Ravens have the best point differential margin in the NFL, a QB who has finally gotten pressure off his back of not winning a playoff game (Lamar can now play freely), a super bowl winning coach, and above all, a very strong defense. Bills pass defense is mediocre and can be had as shown by the Colts late comeback and near upset. Ravens also played in arguably a much tougher division that produced 3 playoff teams where as the Bills played in one of the weakest divisions. If the Ravens win and if the Chiefs win (highly likely), it would produce a matchup of two former MVPs which would be HUGE ratings for the NFL. This is the most suitable outcome for the NFL. A Bills/Chiefs AFC title game IMO would not be nearly as appealing. This game is also fairly evenly split from a wagering standpoint. Why would Vegas have a 13-3 team as just a FG favorite to open the line and it drops to 1.5 in a matter of days?
Browns +10: Chiefs over their last 8 games have jumped out to big leads and then squandered the leads as they do not keep their foot on the gas, and more interested in preserving a win. This is evident by their putrid ATS record despite a 14-2 win-loss record. I can see the Browns covering or getting a backdoor cover late with Chiefs playing prevent defense. A Browns outright win would be shocking. I like the ATS pick
Saints -3: I'm quite uncertain about this game at the moment and need to do more homework, but currently 68% of the money is on Bucs ML, and 73% of the money is on Bucs ATS. This is a good sign for the Saints ATS pick if the numbers remain similar come game time. The betting public is likely tailing TB12 given his playoff success and possibly going with the notion that the Saints beating the Bucs 3 times in 1 season is improbable. I plan to wait this game out until right before kickoff. If the betting percentages are still lopsided for the Bucs, I will also go with the Saints. At the moment this pick looks good
Appreciate your feedback my friend. I'm surprised the Ravens shot themselves in the foot so bad with the 2 missed FGs albeit the wind with a kicker like Tucker and the pick-6 in the 2h on a game tying drive. Ravens defense played well enough to win this game by holding Bills to 17 but so many squandered opportunities to score and Lamar getting KO'd with a concussion makes it improbable to beat a 13-3 team. The Packers handled their business against a middle-of-the-pack Rams team which comes as no surprise to me.
I feel pretty good about the Browns chances of covering and have a hard time backing the Chiefs at such a large number given their horrible ATS in their last 8 games AND the Browns ability to rush with their stud RBs and keep Mahomes on the sideline as long as possible to they don't get lit up like a Christmas tree. If the wind is a factor in KC the way it was in the Buffalo game, I like the Browns chances even more.
As stated earlier, I plan to wait out the Saints/Bucs game until right before kickoff to see if there is lopsided action. Would LOVE to see Bucs get eliminated.
Chalks, Dogs, Overs, Unders, Props....I love 'em all
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@DB51daBEARS
Appreciate your feedback my friend. I'm surprised the Ravens shot themselves in the foot so bad with the 2 missed FGs albeit the wind with a kicker like Tucker and the pick-6 in the 2h on a game tying drive. Ravens defense played well enough to win this game by holding Bills to 17 but so many squandered opportunities to score and Lamar getting KO'd with a concussion makes it improbable to beat a 13-3 team. The Packers handled their business against a middle-of-the-pack Rams team which comes as no surprise to me.
I feel pretty good about the Browns chances of covering and have a hard time backing the Chiefs at such a large number given their horrible ATS in their last 8 games AND the Browns ability to rush with their stud RBs and keep Mahomes on the sideline as long as possible to they don't get lit up like a Christmas tree. If the wind is a factor in KC the way it was in the Buffalo game, I like the Browns chances even more.
As stated earlier, I plan to wait out the Saints/Bucs game until right before kickoff to see if there is lopsided action. Would LOVE to see Bucs get eliminated.
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