Guess we couldn't go on without another Chiefs vs Bills playoff game for a second year in a row after how dramatic the last playoff meeting turned out to be. So here we are now blessed with another Mahomes vs Josh Allen showdown with part 3 for the marquee Sunday matchup. Will it live up to the billing? Are we one year too late?
In an interesting new twist this will be Mahomes first official career road playoff game not named the Super Bowl. This also won't have quite the star studded cast on offense like the last meeting had. No Tyreek Hill, no Gabe Davis this time either. This may end up being the lowest scoring of the playoff trilogy with defense being more of the focal point this time. So who will have the better of the matchup?
Now let me preface this by saying while I don't normally put heavy emphasis on handicapping the refs but if I think it could be a factor then I've got to approach the game in that way too and look at each game uniquely through a different lens. The ref could be all the difference in a game with two equally matched teams in a closely contested battle.
The edge I see here is Mahomes will have Shawn Hochuli in his corner. The Chiefs are 8-2 with Ed's son since he became the ref in 2018. Meanwhile the Bills are 1-3 when Hochuli refs their games. Naturally you have to look at penalties as well. Which team commits more penalties? I'm afraid that is the Bills they've committed 8 more than the Chiefs. And what kind of penalties does Hochuli like to call the most? That's right Roughing the Passer. So far the Bills have committed 4 roughing calls to the Chiefs 1 call. Just touching Mahomes will likely be an auto flag. Both defenses will need to stay disciplined here and avoid the extracurricular stuff. I have a feeling the Bills defense will be the aggressor trying to show out in front of their home crowd and lacking discipline which has been typical of a Sean McDermott team
Next thing I want to point out are the injuries. Bills defense will possibly lose a few more playmakers on the back end with Terrel Bernard, Taylor Rapp and Christian Benford possibly out for this game. If the Bills run defense couldn't get bad enough now their pass defense could take a hit performance wise too. Chiefs should eat with a heavy dose of Pacheco. Mahomes reliable targets Rashee Rice and Noah Gray or Travis Kelce(if he isn't lovesick) should welcome the news . That being said I could still see the Bills offense provide a stiff challenge against a good Chiefs defense. If the Chiefs can contain Diggs they still have weapons in other places. James Cook is a new wrinkle in the Bills offense that they didn't have previously. Even if Gabe Davis is out, Shakir could be the next breakout 2nd receiver like Gabe Davis was. They got 2 capable pass catching tight ends in Knox and Kincaid. Then there's Josh Allen when he's running which is always a handful.
Verdict
I think it will be another close game just like the regular season match earlier this year and it will come down to who has the ball last. I'm not calling for a Chiefs outright upset, but it wouldn't surprise me if Mahomes gets the last laugh. On the surface this opportunity sets up for Josh Allen to finally get a playoff win over Mahomes, possibly his best chance yet. The question though is can the Bills take advantage of it in front of their home crowd? You would think so right? However In this particular spot I have to take Mahomes in the underdog role.
Guess we couldn't go on without another Chiefs vs Bills playoff game for a second year in a row after how dramatic the last playoff meeting turned out to be. So here we are now blessed with another Mahomes vs Josh Allen showdown with part 3 for the marquee Sunday matchup. Will it live up to the billing? Are we one year too late?
In an interesting new twist this will be Mahomes first official career road playoff game not named the Super Bowl. This also won't have quite the star studded cast on offense like the last meeting had. No Tyreek Hill, no Gabe Davis this time either. This may end up being the lowest scoring of the playoff trilogy with defense being more of the focal point this time. So who will have the better of the matchup?
Now let me preface this by saying while I don't normally put heavy emphasis on handicapping the refs but if I think it could be a factor then I've got to approach the game in that way too and look at each game uniquely through a different lens. The ref could be all the difference in a game with two equally matched teams in a closely contested battle.
The edge I see here is Mahomes will have Shawn Hochuli in his corner. The Chiefs are 8-2 with Ed's son since he became the ref in 2018. Meanwhile the Bills are 1-3 when Hochuli refs their games. Naturally you have to look at penalties as well. Which team commits more penalties? I'm afraid that is the Bills they've committed 8 more than the Chiefs. And what kind of penalties does Hochuli like to call the most? That's right Roughing the Passer. So far the Bills have committed 4 roughing calls to the Chiefs 1 call. Just touching Mahomes will likely be an auto flag. Both defenses will need to stay disciplined here and avoid the extracurricular stuff. I have a feeling the Bills defense will be the aggressor trying to show out in front of their home crowd and lacking discipline which has been typical of a Sean McDermott team
Next thing I want to point out are the injuries. Bills defense will possibly lose a few more playmakers on the back end with Terrel Bernard, Taylor Rapp and Christian Benford possibly out for this game. If the Bills run defense couldn't get bad enough now their pass defense could take a hit performance wise too. Chiefs should eat with a heavy dose of Pacheco. Mahomes reliable targets Rashee Rice and Noah Gray or Travis Kelce(if he isn't lovesick) should welcome the news . That being said I could still see the Bills offense provide a stiff challenge against a good Chiefs defense. If the Chiefs can contain Diggs they still have weapons in other places. James Cook is a new wrinkle in the Bills offense that they didn't have previously. Even if Gabe Davis is out, Shakir could be the next breakout 2nd receiver like Gabe Davis was. They got 2 capable pass catching tight ends in Knox and Kincaid. Then there's Josh Allen when he's running which is always a handful.
Verdict
I think it will be another close game just like the regular season match earlier this year and it will come down to who has the ball last. I'm not calling for a Chiefs outright upset, but it wouldn't surprise me if Mahomes gets the last laugh. On the surface this opportunity sets up for Josh Allen to finally get a playoff win over Mahomes, possibly his best chance yet. The question though is can the Bills take advantage of it in front of their home crowd? You would think so right? However In this particular spot I have to take Mahomes in the underdog role.
I am guessing this game a close one in the end, may be something like 21-20 Bills. I give Bills the edge over Chiefs here, since Josh Allen's home record is 7-1 for this regular season and 5-1 in the postseasons.
I am guessing this game a close one in the end, may be something like 21-20 Bills. I give Bills the edge over Chiefs here, since Josh Allen's home record is 7-1 for this regular season and 5-1 in the postseasons.
Eat with Pacheco? Reliable targets that are not named Travis Kelce? Have you watched KC this year at all? They have the 18th ranked run game and the WRs have dropped passes in big spots all year.
The first part of the writeup is what jumps out at me. The Chiefs having to go on the road being unfamiliar territory.
Even Brady didn't make it to the SB every year he was in the playoffs believe it or not and he never had an offense sputtering like this in the 2nd half.
Eat with Pacheco? Reliable targets that are not named Travis Kelce? Have you watched KC this year at all? They have the 18th ranked run game and the WRs have dropped passes in big spots all year.
The first part of the writeup is what jumps out at me. The Chiefs having to go on the road being unfamiliar territory.
Even Brady didn't make it to the SB every year he was in the playoffs believe it or not and he never had an offense sputtering like this in the 2nd half.
Eat with Pacheco? Reliable targets that are not named Travis Kelce? Have you watched KC this year at all? They have the 18th ranked run game and the WRs have dropped passes in big spots all year. The first part of the writeup is what jumps out at me. The Chiefs having to go on the road being unfamiliar territory. Even Brady didn't make it to the SB every year he was in the playoffs believe it or not and he never had an offense sputtering like this in the 2nd half.
Yes I have.
Chiefs can run the ball, at a decent 4.3 ypc but they don't run it enough, the 4th least attempts which is why they're 18th in rushing yards. Pacheco could've been a 1,000 yd rusher. Bills run defense allowing 4.6 ypc, middle of the pack against the run, also 4th least rush attempts against them. If opposing teams ran more on them they would be a bottom 20 unit. The key for Chiefs offense to lean a little more on the run game. Yes I'm aware of the dropped passes, most in the league. Rashee Rice is their best playmaker despite the drops this season he's catching them better lately... And at this point Mahomes should throw it to Gray more he has better hands than Kelce
Eat with Pacheco? Reliable targets that are not named Travis Kelce? Have you watched KC this year at all? They have the 18th ranked run game and the WRs have dropped passes in big spots all year. The first part of the writeup is what jumps out at me. The Chiefs having to go on the road being unfamiliar territory. Even Brady didn't make it to the SB every year he was in the playoffs believe it or not and he never had an offense sputtering like this in the 2nd half.
Yes I have.
Chiefs can run the ball, at a decent 4.3 ypc but they don't run it enough, the 4th least attempts which is why they're 18th in rushing yards. Pacheco could've been a 1,000 yd rusher. Bills run defense allowing 4.6 ypc, middle of the pack against the run, also 4th least rush attempts against them. If opposing teams ran more on them they would be a bottom 20 unit. The key for Chiefs offense to lean a little more on the run game. Yes I'm aware of the dropped passes, most in the league. Rashee Rice is their best playmaker despite the drops this season he's catching them better lately... And at this point Mahomes should throw it to Gray more he has better hands than Kelce
The Chiefs have scored just 70 points on the road in the 2nd halves this season. I'm not counting last week's meaningless finale at Sofi Stadiunm, but I am counting the game they played in Germany against the Dolphins. I strongly suspect this weakness will cost them their season tonight.
The Chiefs have scored just 70 points on the road in the 2nd halves this season. I'm not counting last week's meaningless finale at Sofi Stadiunm, but I am counting the game they played in Germany against the Dolphins. I strongly suspect this weakness will cost them their season tonight.
I agree KC is the right play DK but I can't bring myself to take any action on them, they are not the same team made SB's and the Bills are hungry to beat them and this is a great spot for them to do it. Then you look at all the Bills injuries, can't see taking the Bills.
To me it's KC or pass. Mahomes is incredible as a dog, very similar to Brady.
I agree KC is the right play DK but I can't bring myself to take any action on them, they are not the same team made SB's and the Bills are hungry to beat them and this is a great spot for them to do it. Then you look at all the Bills injuries, can't see taking the Bills.
To me it's KC or pass. Mahomes is incredible as a dog, very similar to Brady.
@MrBator Would you recommend teasing the Cheifs up?
Nope, but I would recommend putting "i" before "e" except after "c." But seriously, if you like the Chiefs today, I think a 1st half bet on them is more promising than a full game bet.
@MrBator Would you recommend teasing the Cheifs up?
Nope, but I would recommend putting "i" before "e" except after "c." But seriously, if you like the Chiefs today, I think a 1st half bet on them is more promising than a full game bet.
I agree KC is the right play DK but I can't bring myself to take any action on them, they are not the same team made SB's and the Bills are hungry to beat them and this is a great spot for them to do it. Then you look at all the Bills injuries, can't see taking the Bills. To me it's KC or pass. Mahomes is incredible as a dog, very similar to Brady.
The Chiefs have been underdogs just twice in the last three seasons, and both games were played last season. Most of Patrick Mahomes' success as an underdog happened in 2018 and 2019, his first two seasons as the team's starting QB.
I agree KC is the right play DK but I can't bring myself to take any action on them, they are not the same team made SB's and the Bills are hungry to beat them and this is a great spot for them to do it. Then you look at all the Bills injuries, can't see taking the Bills. To me it's KC or pass. Mahomes is incredible as a dog, very similar to Brady.
The Chiefs have been underdogs just twice in the last three seasons, and both games were played last season. Most of Patrick Mahomes' success as an underdog happened in 2018 and 2019, his first two seasons as the team's starting QB.
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