Early Week 1 Wager

Thought I would throw an early pick out, opinions welcome. 

NE +9.5 Cinn

Surprised by all the Bengal SB talk, I'm not sure this team is capable,  especially on D.

Assuming QB Burrow returns healthy,  he will make plays, he is outstanding. WR Chase vs. CB Gonzalez will be intriguing.  Cincy lost RB Mixon and WR Boyd. Their OL could still be a problem, LT Brown didn't play well LY.

Patriot D did play well LY, especially because the terrible QB play put them in difficult spots often. QB Brissett will steady the position.  RB Stevenson should find room vs. a suspect Bengal D missing DT DJ Reader.

Won't predict NE outright, I'll call it 23-20 Bengals. Thoughts on this game or another? 

Patriots have so much speed at the wideout and with Jacoby rocket arm they should be a high octane offense this season

According to Joe B. he is ready " give people something to talk about" be that as it may if 9' is available come game week, I'll consider it. Only reason I see to justify that number is a possible 27- 14 type of Cincy win.

I like NE.  While I haven't yet placed a wager on NE, I will NOT be taking CIN.

@maxwagers781

 NE has limited experience at WR. I do believe the Pat's will have success running the ball, hopefully opening up opportunities. 

Biscuiteater-Burrow a great ambassador for the game ! Remember "Burrowhead?" Of course,  anything can happen.  Bengals have struggled at least two years in a row on opening day. 

DBW-I am going to wait also. Although,  I don't believe it will go to double digits,  despite the inevitable Cincy money. 

@Trooper64

i think they need to pass the ball to open up the run. last season they showed their potential but they were inconsistent. patriots can't be the conservative team they were and expect different results. a change in identity to become a more aggressive attacking offense is what will save this them from the fall out the ranks of elite. 

wide receivers: polk, douglas, bourne, osborn, juju, et al., can each have breakout seasons

@maxwagers781

 juju breakout ??  As in, Juju Smith Schuster ??  

So no hope in Drake huh.... 

Never seen "high octane" and Jacoby Brissett used in same sentence.  Should be fascinating to see.... 

@Trooper64

 Bengals have struggled at least two years in a row on opening day. 

Yes, they have losing both openers last two years  

This was with a Burrow who had an appendectomy weeks before training camp began and then a calf strain in camp last year.  Both forced him to miss the majority of camp and pre-season.  Let's see if he can stay healthy leading up to week 1.  

So someone with "respectable career numbers" is a reason to take him as a big dog on the road in week one??? I'm amazed at the reasoning people post to back their wager. 

@maxwagers781

 If throwing sets up the run, so much the better. Still feel like QB Brissett has limitations.  However, definitely an upgrade over Jones. 

@kcblitzkrieg

 It is possible Burrow might have a monster season, if he can stay healthy.  Losing Mixon and a D with some holes will likely put Cincy in some shootouts.

On a side note,  I am a looongtime Raiders fan, (50 years!) but I really like Mahomes. Best of luck to the Chiefs!

@maxwagers781

 jacoby is the starter in week 1 unless there's an injury. people don't think he's capable of pulling out a few w's but the guy is a veteran who can play. his career numbers are respectable. but that patriots schedule is daunting and i could see maye step in by either halloween or thanksgiving if the season is slipping far out of reach. 

This "high octane offense" as you described it was last in the league at just under 14 points per game last year.  I realize they have a new OC but you just went from "rocket arm Brissett in high octane offense" to "he's a vet who has respectable career numbers".  That was my initial point.  There is nothing "high octane" about this Pats offense.  The most realistic chance they have of being anything close to a "high octane" offense is with Drake.  You know exactly what Jacoby's ceiling is.  We know nothing about Maye right now. Jacoby's ceiling, in conjunction with an improved Oline, a talented defense that underperformed last year, and feeding Ramondre the rock plentiful times, could get them from the "worst in the league offense" to a respectable 16-20 range offense.  

There are plenty of instances in NFL history where the team signs the veteran QB to come in and be that week 1 starter, a "bridge" to the rookie QB.  Everyone assumes (in July) that the "plan" they NFL team has told you is going to go exactly as you think.  Then all of a sudden its week 3 of pre-season and some rookie named Russel Wilson is named starter over the teams high priced FA QB from Green Bay they just brought in to mentor the kid.  Plans can and will change, don't get too caught up on the coach speak.  

Nothing against Jacoby, he is a respectable fill in starter and can win a game with no turnovers, running the ball and his defense being good.  

@Trooper64

For sure.... Burrow is nice MVP candidate at 10-1 odds 

@Trooper64

 If throwing sets up the run, so much the better. Still feel like QB Brissett has limitations.  However, definitely an upgrade over Jones. 

Mac was good his rookie year with McDaniels as OC.  Belichek fooked this one up by bringing in the "tag team" defensive and Special teams retread coach duo for Mac in 2022, followed by O'Brien year 3.  Mac will be a great back up option down in Jax if Trevor ever misses time.  

Let me guess...the next reason you're leaning towards NE is because Jacoby will be "fired up" for that game. 

there you go … guess all you can.. 

@kcblitzkrieg

 This is excellent analysis and I forgot just how weird things got under GOAT Coach Belichick the last couple years.  

Jones did play well his rookie year and is in a much better situation with way more talent in Jax.

QB's go down every week,  Jones may well receive another opportunity. 

I wonder if Burrow is going to miss Tyler Boyd, dude was steady.

I wish Tyler Boyd has been nicknamed "Tweety" Boyd.