Early wk 1 thoughts

Browns... ML... or wait to get +3 / 3.5 before kick off!

The Bengals got an overrated LT, and lost 3/5 of their secondary. 

The Browns revamp their dline, get their oline back healthy, and add an off season w/ Watson. 

I mean this sincerely, I don't know of position group I would choose the Bengals over the Browns in. 

QB - sure, Burrow, but Watson has been RIGHT THERE.

WR - sure Chase + Higgins + Boyd, but Coop, DPJ + Moore (who apparently aint that bad) aren't far off.

LBs - Browns linebackers were all hurt last year, I like the Bengals two alot - but Walker an JOK are very good when healthy (the depth is shockingly poor). 

I think the Browns new dline are gonna swamp this predicatablly poor oline for Burrow. Maybe it's  Burrow being a warrior and holding onto the ball to long to make some great plays, or whatever... He's gonna be under smoke all game. Browns got great secondary too (on paper).

I'll be on the Browns ML baring any injuries.

Can't wait to get back to some football - hope everyone had a great spring!

Burrow is barely better than Watson? Put the crack pipe down 

@the1toturn2

 yeah hes definitely smoking crack lmao 

whats going to win the browns this game is their defensive. i imagine a low scoring defensive tug of war match. the points he mentioned about the O line for bengals is true but joe "barely" being better than deshaun "right now" is a wild statement. watson still got some rust to shake off. 

The total  is set at 47 as of right now 

U_C-I likely  won't have a "dawg" in the fight on this game, but perhaps a couple things to consider:

That was a tough L to take for Cincy in the AFC Championship Game last January.  Figure a focused effort from NE Ohio native Burrow and the rest of the Bengals. They have struggled in Cleveland recently. 

The Browns made multiple off-season D changes and have a new DC. Perhaps they will need adjustment time.

The other thing I noticed is they didn't exactly play vs. the toughest slate of QB's LY. NFC South,  Wentz, and Flacco amongst others. Bengals a whole different animal.  

Good luck this season!

@the1toturn2

 There isn’t one throw joe can make that Watson cant. He is every bit of a qb … if not better than shiesty. And I love joe, but Watson absence has many people forgetting the dog shit teams he has always carried. But I’m smoking crack so go head and bet against him 

No one mentioned Chubb. Edge to browns

Browns also dominate the h2h last little while if I'm not mistaken 

I think that's incorrect.  CLV is 3-12-1 ATS in the last 16 vs. CIN.

However CLV is 9-6-0 ATS as a home dog vs. CIN dating back to 1991.  The O/U is 4-10-1 to the Under which makes 47 look like a pretty high total.

As a CLV fan I wonder how ready Watson will be in week #1 after last year's horrible season.

@DogbiteWilliams

Browns won 8 of last 10 vs Bengals

Bengals haven't won in Cleveland since 2017

CLV has won the last 5 home games vs. CIN, but they are just 1-3-1 ATS in those games.  Remember, CIN was weak before they drafted Burrow - they won only 12 games combined in seasons 2018, 2019 and 2020.  CLV was -8.5, -8 and -5.5 hosting CIN in those 3 seasons.  CLV won them all but just went 0-2-1 ATS.

In the last 9 games that CLV was a dog vs. CIN they went 2-7 SU and ATS.  One good point for CLV in those two victories: CLV scored 41 on 2021-11-07 and 32 on 2022-10-31.  CIN got revenge on 2022-12-12, winning 23-10 as a 4 point home favorite.

As of now I haven't found any queries strong enough to warrant a wager.  Good luck with whatever you decide to do.

Edit:  CIN and CLV haven't matched up in week 1 since 2011 when CIN won 27-17 as a 6.5 road dog.

Personally I'm not to concerned w/ latest h2h. 

Just thinking: 

Burrow could regress to mean

Watson could progress to mean 

Bengals D has lost two starters, 

Browns D has added two starters.

Bengals O strength is Browns D strength. Bengals O could be neutralized w/ pass rush. Yes Burrow gonna get his yards, but lets get some pressure an some turnovers. I'm not worried about the Bengals running on the Browns shyte rush d. 

I think the Browns move the ball. They could run last year when everyone knew they were gonna run. This year, you gotta respect the pass - Chubb gonna run wild.

Not smoking crack - jus like the Browns here, an if I can get em at home for +3 or +3.5, I'm in. I like em ML as it is! I'll triple the bet at +3.5. 

Would like the Brownies alot at +3.5 also.....

Two of the analysts on Daily Wager, Tyler Fulghum and Joe Fortenbaugh, both are bullish on CLV this season.  Before ESPN refused to renew his contract, Doug Kezirian thought CLV was worth an AFC North division wager at +380 or +420.  CLV is down to +350 at Heritage, so Kezirian may have moved the market.

Current AFC North odds at Heritage:

CIN  +110

BAL  +220

CLV  +350

PIT  +450

Cade York has me double thinking about this bet. 

Browns gotta bring in a new kicker. 

York may end up being great - but not in Cleveland. 

@Unders_Club

 Under might be the better play

47.5 a big number and burrow won't be at 100% if he plays

I like Burrows but it's not a good sign when you can't stay on the field. The fact that he's down again with another injury when all he was doing was rolling out and throwing a pass in practice this is very bad sign on him staying healthy at any point in his career.

@Silverstones

Yeah, it seems that Burrow has durability issues for sure but I just wonder what incentive does Watson have to perform now that all of his money is guaranteed?
Is he just mailing it in now? I saw a few of his games last year and something is not right with him and it goes beyond knocking off the rust from the long layoff. Anyone else notice that? 

These interdivisional games can be ugly tough to handicap as there are often surprising results as the teams know each other so well, plus I have lost a lot of respect for Stefanski and no longer think he has the right stuff to produce results on the field. The game should make for an intriguing matchup but I also think the Bengals lost some key players which will weaken them on defense. 

@Buffalobob89074

 I agree with the Watson thoughts. 

All i see is average / poor play... All i hear is how great he is at practice. 

May be jumping the gun on this team... got a large future on them for Super Bowl at 34 - 1 already placed. 

Hope they jus pound the rock an play solid turnover defence.