Easily the worst week for betting the NFL but somehow this is what the league wants

All these 8-8ish teams playing each other not to get wildcard spots but to actually win divisions because the level if parity in the league is that high. This is what they consider a great product?

If I was made commish tomorrow the first thing I would do is go back to 16 games and reverse the decision to expand the wildcard.

The first time they did it all the teams who wouldn't have got in under the old format all got their doors blown off in the wildcard week. I forget if last year was the same and can't be arsed looking it up right now.

But the worst change they made was making it so only one team can get a bye when it used to be the top 2 seeds.

Now, because there is only one bye and extra teams playing and all the division teams playing each other, you don't have any reason to fight for the 2 seed over the 3 other than to avoid the 1 seed until the conf final.

There was always some teams that could rest guys but now it's just the top seed resting guys, and the 2 and 3 seed not really sure if they want to win or not because they won't find out who they play anyway in many cases depending on time slots etc.

Used to be a solid angle to play on the 2 bye week teams in the divisional round and they took that away from us to promote parity and stuff wildcard weekend with mediocre teams just to keep a few extra fanbases involved for one more week. 4 div winners and 2 wildcards was better. There's 32 teams, 16 games made more sense too.

If you are betting big money on week 18 games you are either insane or you have some knowledge that others don't.

My advice is keep your powder dry until the playoffs as these games are crap for betting on. 'They' want as much chaos as possible this week. It's all designed now to have every game come down to the wire and every division come down to the wire and the wildcard spots, too.

I suppose it will be entertaining. I might put 10 bucks on each game just to keep myself interested in the manufactured chaos. Perhaps totals are of more value than sides in these circumstances but I'm not a totals player really.

One thing I will say is needing to 'win and get in' is a horrible angle to use to bet on a squad. If they were any good they would already be in. Which is why I'm really annoyed that Miami's defense has been so bad and Tyreek's status is up in the air, as I think the Dolphins could be a great example of value with people thinking the Bills will win because they need to.

The second thing I'll say is under these circumstances it is probably a good idea to wait until the last minute to bet and see what the line does.

That's what I'll be doing with Miami. Because if Tyreek is gonna play (I'd say he will but who knows) the line will change. If that happens the Dolphins will be the only actual play In make over 10 bucks this week.

But it's a good idea to watch the line for other games too like the ones where teams are playing who have nothing to play for (either locked in or out) because remember, these guys bet, their friends and families bet too. If there's reports of some teams emptying benches or already mentally on vacation there will be those in the know betting accordingly.

And in this easily worst week the first game up is easily the worst one. You're probably looking for a pick on it because you're a degenerate gambler and this is the only game on. That's okay. I mean you could do something meaningful with your Saturday but your probably sick of your family by now after the holidays and it's probably really cold out, too.

So you have the option of picking a team who doesn't need to win at all or a team that is so bad I can't even believe they have a chance to get in at all with a win and is playing their 3rd string QB.

Have fun with that. My ten dollar investment is going on the team that doesn't need the game. Because the Ravens just have everything going right for them this year. Huntly is capable and they lead the league in rushing, sacks and takeaways.

Those 3 stats are so huge. To lead in all 3 is why they are top seed and have many including myself, think Baltimore is SB bound.

Does being that good in key stats ALL go away because you play backups? I dunno. Maybe for one game. But at home, vs a rival who isn't that good? I'll stick with the team whose vibes are high, who can play loose, who can send guys they hate home.

Remember, the Ravens don't really do meaningless games. They had that insane preseason streak. They also would not only love to clown the Steelers but would probably not like to have this rival come up against them in the playoffs just because they know them so well and have given them problems in the past. So just oust them now if you can.

Like I said,  we know these guys all bet on the games. I wouldn't be surprised if they also have super rich guys like Lamar telling the backups they'll give them a little bit of cash if they win just to motivate them even more. Don't expect a total lack of motivation.

If you want proof that they can still win, look up their 2019 game vs the Steelers in the final week. Very similar situation and they beat the Steelers despite having top seed locked up and resting guys. Oh, and it was in the rain, too.

Cut and paste job from the game recap;

Soaked to the core after standing the rain for well over three hours, coach John Harbaugh smiled broadly once the Baltimore Ravens wrapped up the finest regular season in franchise history by playing hard and effectively in a game that had absolutely no bearing on the team's playoff stature.

"That puts an exclamation point on an excellent season," Harbaugh declared in the wake of the Ravens' 12th straight victory, a 28-10 rout of the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday.

The game meant far more to the Steelers (8-8) than the Ravens (14-2), who had already locked up the top seed in the AFC and rested seven key players.

No matter. Baltimore was looking to better the 13-3 record of the 2006 squad, and the Ravens never go easy when Pittsburgh comes to town.

"We definitely had to win this game. It means a lot to us to be 14-2 this year," cornerback Jimmy Smith said. "It's a Steelers game, too. It's not the Titans or something."

Harbaugh placed seven starters on the inactive list -- including quarterback Lamar Jackson, injured running back Mark Ingram (calf), guard Marshal Yanda and safety Earl Thomas.

All seven players, six of whom were voted to the Pro Bowl, should return to action on the weekend of Jan. 11-12, when Baltimore opens postseason play following a first-round bye.

---

Honestly if you bet this game you're gonna feel stupid if you lose because there's an obvious reason NOT to bet on either team. Why take a team that doesn't need to win and is resting all their starters? Why lay points on the road vs the best team in the league with one of the most mediocre?

But those are the options facing you if you simply cannot skip the game. That or the total.

I'd rather at least wait until tomorrow to feel stupid but gun to my head/ten dollar bet = Ravens +3.

@NutinButtLove

The Steelers' 2019 team were missing their #1 WR in Smith-Shuster and their #1 RB in James Conner for most of the year. 
Their aging oline was underpeforming and they couldn't run or pass block with any consistency. Their starting QB (Rudolph) didn't start in that game and was never the same that year after the head hunting hit by Earle Thomas in the earlier game versus Baltimore. 

Duck Hodges QB'd that game and on that day the whole team gave up IMO. I actually watched that game and the only thing this game today has in common with the present day players is the horrible weather. 

The Steelers are healthy on the offensive side of the ball and their D is getting back 2 safeties and their best ILB today. Their oline is coming off a brilliant job and while I don't expect the Steelers to run for 200 yards, I think they will improve from the 92 yards they had in 2019. 
The biggest reason I favor the Steelers is the improved play of Mason Rudolph. He can read defenses and has the guts to hang in the pocket to allow his receivers to get open. Both Trubisky and Pickett ran like scared rabbits when their receivers didn't break open in a few seconds. Another reason is that the team has rallied around the change at QB and a team will support a QB who they believe in. Anyone who watched the Steelers these last two games has seen a gigantic rebirth of confidence. 

The Steelers have won 6 out of their last 7 games versus Baltimore. Lamar is 2-4 lifetime against them and Huntley is a Lamar lite who is averaging under 6 yards per pass. The big question for the Steelers will be, can they contain the run attack of the Ravens? I expect them to bring their A game. 

TL;DR

more football is better than less.  week 18 is great save for NE/NYJ and even that has drama regarding Belicheck.

Denver/LAC and LV/KC dont have playoff implications but they are division rivals and there's a lot of interest in where LV/Denver/LAC are headed next season.

teams always rest players in last game of season so that's not gonna change.  this thread feels like complaining just to complain

@Buffalobob89074

actually, you are right Bob. I was looking at photo from that game I remember it even better know and it was a situation where they gave up. And a big key also - I thought Big Ben was the starting QB but anyway yes, Rudolph (who I told anyone who would listen was gonna save Christmas) might have one more week in him and he is seasoned vet now albeit with not a ton of starts.

But, he was awesome in college. He and James Washington torched the big12.

And kudos for pointing out all the weapons being missing which won't be the case today. But it WiLL be the case for Huntley he will have WRs.

Also, with Andrews hurt the emergence of Likely has been massive for them. So, not gonna play him either.

Besides that, I see lots of people remember the last time this happened and at first glance saw it like I did - repeat on the cards. While I usually think second guessing yourself is bad juju, in this case I'm going to defer to your analysis because the Ravens DID finally lose in preseason and even tho they won that game in 2019 with the top seed already secured, it didn't help. At all. They lost to the Titans after the bye week.

The focus this year is undoubtedly on what happens 3 weeks from now even more so bc of that.

Also, a win today means not only does tomorrow night's game equal the AFC East title, but will decide if the Steelers get in. And the more intrigue, the better.

You're not wrong.

I hadn't had my coffee yet. Is more football better? Well, by this stage I am getting weary but maybe next year since I am quitting betting on the idiot college kids ad the ruined bowl season and just sticking to NFL and the CFP playoffs, I will say yes.

I know there was always guys being rested but I still hate that they eliminated the bye from the 2 seed and put in teams that have no shot just to pad the schedule.

Since so many of those teams got blown out which is defeating the purpose of what they wanted, I wonder will we see increased 'help' from the zebras in keeping these wildcard 7 seeds in the game a little longer this year...

@NutinButtLove

 Agree with hating week 18 and the 7th playoff team. I think they should add a 2nd bye week and guarantee teams the weekend off before TNF. I never watch TNF I’d prefer doubleheader MNF…

@NutinButtLove

 "One thing I will say is needing to 'win and get in' is a horrible angle"....100 percent correct!

a) the final week is always crazy because some teams are out, some are in, some are fighting.  nothing changed here

b) more playoff teams are good.  it's means more football and it helps the final week be more interesting.  

wildcard round of playoffs home teams are:
SU: 52-42-0 (2.70, 55.3%)
ATS: 42-48-4 (-0.78, 46.7%)
O/U: 39-54-1 (0.72, 41.9%)

and in last 6 years
SU: 15-15-0 (1.20, 50.0%)
ATS: 10-19-1 (-3.18, 34.5%)
O/U: 12-18-0 (0.27, 40.0%)

some blowouts, some close games.  nothing changed there either long term or short term.  go back and look at some recent scores:

https://killersports.com/nfl/query?_qt=games&sdql=playoffs%3D1+and+p%3Aplayoffs%3D0+and+p%3Aweek%3Dweek-1+and+H&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++


if you think there is some quality issues, maybe so.  but bad football is better than no football at all.  CFB or NFL

the old saying is teams that NEED to win are like 100% losers in final 3 weeks and for sure thee worst div in nfc is the south 2nd worst is the north

tom brady live interview said it best this years teams are thee worst ever form er HC's said it too and all users members in other forums all agree

we neeed rule changes thee extra week is not fair now teams have 8 home games and 9 roads eithr go back to 17 week or add 1 more

@NutinButtLove

 Appreciate your gracious reply.  I love this Ravens' team (just not today) and think they are unbeatable and win it all if they don't suffer a catastrophic injury. 

Does it really matter? Gamblers always lose and the house always wins regardless 

In essence, Roger Goodell is the highest paid employee in the NFL.  You don't make 60+ million per year by irritating owners with woke, or flavor of the month type initiatives.  Goodell does a heck of a job maintaining the money printer for the owners.

There are no meaningless games as far as the owners are concerned...

As for the general public, face it, we're cannon fodder, addicts, whatever term you want to use.  Nobody, and I mean nobody is going to lay down their hard earned money this weekend in protest of practice squads playing each other.  Numbers flowing in and out of books will be like any other week; you, I and our neighbors will be wagering as usual.

So as long as "they" supply our fix, we'll keep on consuming.

@jefff

 Agree to disagree,I dont like or watch bad football...Unless I have money on it......so I guess I agree with you.lol

I agree. Like i said top in sacks, rush yards AND takeaways? Sign me up for a SB future. Also helps they destroyed the 9ers and Dolphins who many thought were big threats to them.

No difference this week than any other IF you know what you are doing. There are at least 3 games and up to 6 that if all plays out as should will be no sweat winners. I expect something to go bad in one of them possibly, so ill go 5-1 at worse but expect a 6-0 weekend in NFL

@MoPinkie

 Damn I like the confidence

@RavensOsNHoes

 You're not wrong, but this is what the forum is about, bunch of dudes trying to figure out what a bunch of overpaid dumb jocks can do with an inflated piece of pigskin.

I honestly almost quit this season because last year it was so obvious they try to make every game come down to the wire. And you can still see stuff that drives you mad - if a team has a 10-20 points HT lead they will almost always fail to score a single point in the 3rd quarter sometimes the whole half. The losing team is guaranteed to get a roughing or PI call their way in the last drive if they can avoid an INT they will usually score.

I also hate all these coaches constantly going for it on 4th down, going for 2 in weird spots, and the longer PAT. Again, adds to entertainment but is bad for bettors as it increases variance a lot more. Stupid espn graphics now even saying the coach should go for it. Analytics is BS. I been watching the games these teams are getting stuffed all the time trying to go for it on 4th down.

So I compromised by lowering my unit amount which was already conservative. I realized I actually enjoy the pregame prognostication more than watching and sweating games and if you just bet singles for small amounts you will neither get rich nor go broke from football betting as long as you make sure to balance favs and dogs and home and road teams. Actually any addiction specialist will tell you the anticipation is where the real attraction is to the buzz you're going for.

It's a long season so just try and build up slow and steady til playoff time and take bigger shots then if you see something you really like.

I quit parlays (money burners - why do you think every bookie site ad is all about them?) All the dumbest bettors I know stand in front of the kiosks for 30 mins putting on all these hail Mary parlays that never cash. Might as well play powerball.

And instead of watching games in my sitting room drinking beer all day I put a TV in my workshop where I make all kinds of stuff - paintings, mosaics, sculptures. So I do something productive with the day and am not just focused on the games which have way too many ads on them anyway.

Next season like I said I'm not touching a single college football bet until the CFP which will be expanded to 12 games. They ruined the bowls and I just suck at picking college games and I hate watching it anyway the coaches and kids are too frustrating to watch make so many dumb mistakes you don't see in pros. Kids on scholarship can't kick a FG from the 9 yard line lmao.

You're not wrong but I don't see what 'woke' has to do with it. That's an American thing where there's this 'woke' boogeyman trying to get you to do shocking stuff like wear masks in a pandemic.

I don't like how gambling has become so mainstream. Now it's all you see on all the broadcasts, really tacky how the networks have pushed so much gambling into their shows. Did they ever stop to think about how a parent can expose their kid to the great game of football without exposing them to the addiction with the highest suicide rate at the same time?

No, because they're greedy. Where I live gambling on sports has been legal for many decades. They just decided to semiban gambling ads on TV, they cannot be shown until 9.30 pm. And you never see the odds being shown on the sports shows about the sport. It was totally illegal in the US outside Nevada and the announcers would only dare ever make very vague sly reference to spreads or totals when a play late in the game was gonna affect it.

Now they start the game telling you every bet imaginable, player props etc. it's actually sick and we are going to see an unprecedented wave of gambling addicts in the US like never before.

When I started betting you had to know some Tony Soprano type, which was easy in Philly. It had a lot of drawbacks and I much prefer betting where it's legal but I think the advertising should be banned.

The only reason it's even legal now is none of these states can balance a budget and there is too much money to be made. Same with weed, just tax it and take the money to waste on whatever they waste it on.

I digress.

Bob, who do you like in the Texans/Colts?

I'm impressed with Stroud. He's not only been producing he has done what most rookies struggle to do he has hardly thrown any picks.

But, I'm a big fan of Minshew mania and Shane Steichen, too. I think Houston is actually overvalued here. It's still a tough spot for a rookie on the road. Not many rookie QBs lead their team to playoffs. Until he beats the Colts (he lost to them 31-20) I don't see why he should be favored on the road vs them.

I'm thinking despite the 51 scored in the earlier matchup, that with so much on the line the Under is a decent play. Usually in these kind of games you see a lot of red zone inefficiency. Both teams are tied for 3rd most FGs.

Also, each team has a top weapon returning from missing time with an injury. Nico Collins comes back for Houston and Zack Moss for Indy. A little rust on those guys can help an under. Also Moss has been really good vs the Texans so Demeco Ryans, a defensive coach, will likely key on him. While Indy can key on Collins as there are other WRs injured for Houston. The Colts will want to run and keep the ball out of Strouds hands. It is in a dome but I just think it scrapes Under with both teams using their kickers a lot - they both have guys with long range legs so with a lot on the line I think THIS game we won't see a whole bunch of going on 4th down unless it's late in the game and the team really needs to - you know, the way things used to be.

I don't usually take a side and total on the same game but since I'm only betting 10 bucks let's go crazy here and take the home dog and the under

So just to clarify my almost zero money plays are

Steelers -3

Colts +2

Colts/Texans Under 48

@NutinButtLove

 You said this site was a "bunch of guys sitting around and trying to figure out....". YOU ARE CORRECT. 

Ive never paid a service for plays and I have been crystal clear for years that i am not posting plays i spent hours "handicapping"...only a moron would think they could.

I simply passed along, under tag "They told me to Pound..." 70+% season long winners and were met with comments from people who simply only comprehend long writeup picks-  "Sand", "your pud", etc etc. 

Doesnt bother me a bit, just simply shows that i shouldnt be on Covers spreading good fortune. Ive posted less and less over last couple years. GL to ALL. Im sure most are making consistent money weekly, monthly, yearly.  Collecting six figure money from Bovada and BM in BTC every year is the best retirement acct while being semi-retired i can imagine. 

Congrats Niners and Wolverines