Posted:
#1
2016 results: https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=102238262
WC Round
Houston Texans + 3
Cincinnati Bengals + 3
Minnesota Vikings + 5.5
Green Bay Packers ML
Divisional Round
New England Patriots - 5
Green Bay Packers + 7
Seattle Seahawks + 3
Denver Broncos - 7
Championship Round:
New England Patriots - 3
Arizona Cardinals + 3.5
Superbowl:
Denver Broncos + 6 (-120)
First score of the game: Field Goal (+150)
Over 3.5 Field Goals scored (+150)
Over 1.5 Field Goals scored in First Half (+100)
Postseason record: 9-4-1 ATS (+ 5.5 units)
As you know I'm more NBA and soccer bettor but really love to bet on NFL postseason and I will bring all of my winnings from last postseason and will invest them this postseason to see if I will find way again to win.
Already locked:
Houston Texans - 3.5
What an awful game... If Carr was healthy this would be no brainer but sadly the times change. Texans are typical home team with 7-1 record. They will face second/third string QB on Saturday. I know one thing... don't put your money on thrash QB. Houston QB is also thrash but have some experience and he actually play well game against Raiders in Mexico City earlier in the regular season. In fact Texans deserved to win that game and if you remember referees put some hard work to bring Raiders to victory. Houston were the better team and I think they matched well against Oakland. Raiders are bottom tier defense and according to my stats Houston actually find way to put some points against poor defensive teams. Texans are one of the worst playoff teams that have ever played in postseason for sure but they have HFA... they have one of the best defenses in the league and I think they can handle Carrless Raiders to 14-17 or lower points mark. I'm Raiders fan and don't like Texans at all but right now I feel Houston is the right play.
Other leans:
Steelers - points
Packers - points
Road underdogs that won 6 or less games in the previous season (Giants and Dolphins) are 4-19 SU in postseason since 2001. These teams are overvalued according to this history stat and they have only 17.4% chance to pull ML upset. I know the sample size is too small but who cares... I invest my last postseason winnings so nothing come from my pockets right now. Road underdogs that lost their postseason game covered in only 31% of the time. It seems to win in NFL postseason is enough to just pick the winner ML. The ATS will just come in good percentage. If the ML home favorite winner covers in 69% ATS of the time in the playoffs and we have 80% favorite ML winner accuracy according to some really good logic trend we have 55.2% chance to hit that favorite ATS blindly. I still don't understand NFL very well but I know when some teams are overvalue according to some simple trend. At least one of Packers and Steelers will cover IMO.
Not sure about Seahawks/Lions game yet. Seattle is ML lock for me but the spread is too scary. Also think that all four home teams will advance to the next round so probably will add some four team favorite ML parlay. Right know the odds are + 240.
BOL
WC Round
Houston Texans + 3
Cincinnati Bengals + 3
Minnesota Vikings + 5.5
Green Bay Packers ML
Divisional Round
New England Patriots - 5
Green Bay Packers + 7
Seattle Seahawks + 3
Denver Broncos - 7
Championship Round:
New England Patriots - 3
Arizona Cardinals + 3.5
Superbowl:
Denver Broncos + 6 (-120)
First score of the game: Field Goal (+150)
Over 3.5 Field Goals scored (+150)
Over 1.5 Field Goals scored in First Half (+100)
Postseason record: 9-4-1 ATS (+ 5.5 units)
As you know I'm more NBA and soccer bettor but really love to bet on NFL postseason and I will bring all of my winnings from last postseason and will invest them this postseason to see if I will find way again to win.
Already locked:
Houston Texans - 3.5
What an awful game... If Carr was healthy this would be no brainer but sadly the times change. Texans are typical home team with 7-1 record. They will face second/third string QB on Saturday. I know one thing... don't put your money on thrash QB. Houston QB is also thrash but have some experience and he actually play well game against Raiders in Mexico City earlier in the regular season. In fact Texans deserved to win that game and if you remember referees put some hard work to bring Raiders to victory. Houston were the better team and I think they matched well against Oakland. Raiders are bottom tier defense and according to my stats Houston actually find way to put some points against poor defensive teams. Texans are one of the worst playoff teams that have ever played in postseason for sure but they have HFA... they have one of the best defenses in the league and I think they can handle Carrless Raiders to 14-17 or lower points mark. I'm Raiders fan and don't like Texans at all but right now I feel Houston is the right play.
Other leans:
Steelers - points
Packers - points
Road underdogs that won 6 or less games in the previous season (Giants and Dolphins) are 4-19 SU in postseason since 2001. These teams are overvalued according to this history stat and they have only 17.4% chance to pull ML upset. I know the sample size is too small but who cares... I invest my last postseason winnings so nothing come from my pockets right now. Road underdogs that lost their postseason game covered in only 31% of the time. It seems to win in NFL postseason is enough to just pick the winner ML. The ATS will just come in good percentage. If the ML home favorite winner covers in 69% ATS of the time in the playoffs and we have 80% favorite ML winner accuracy according to some really good logic trend we have 55.2% chance to hit that favorite ATS blindly. I still don't understand NFL very well but I know when some teams are overvalue according to some simple trend. At least one of Packers and Steelers will cover IMO.
Not sure about Seahawks/Lions game yet. Seattle is ML lock for me but the spread is too scary. Also think that all four home teams will advance to the next round so probably will add some four team favorite ML parlay. Right know the odds are + 240.
BOL
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