First thread ever! Week 12 NFL Picks

Been watching these forums for sometime now and finally decided to join and start posting my own picks for NFL games.  So as of right now my record is 0-0 and here are my picks for week 12. 

Kansas City -7.5
I am sick of reading everybody all over Oakland for the sole reason that they think b/c KC just beat Seattle and have to travel to Oakland and KC has Denver the following week that KC doesn't care about this game and will over look Oakland and somehow shit the bed.  Well in my personal experience for those who have actually played sports at a high level before would know that you play every game hard to win b/c its in your nature, regardless of who you are playing.  These are professional athletes and this is their pride on the line every single game.  Furthermore this is a division game and it does not matter who you get a win against a win is a win especially a division win.  KC is the stronger team with more talented players and better coached and will be ready for this game just like every other game this season.  Period.  KC wins and covers.

Atlanta -3.5
For the record this is the game I am least confident about however I digress.  Falcons might have a loosing record this year in a shit division but one thing is for certain they play their best football at home and the Browns play their worst football in away non-divisional games.  The only thing that scares me about this game is not knowing how well Josh Gordon is going to fit into the Browns new offensive system and knowing the Falcons have nobody on D to shut him down or even shadow him really is a little scary.  But I expect Matt Ryan to hook up with Julio Jones and Roddy White enough times to lead them to a tough home win and cover the spread. 

Philadelphia -11
Simple.  Philly is an offensive power house with the best special teams in the league right now by far.  Yes I know they got blown away by Green Bay last week but that was in Green Bay where Green Bay is pretty much unstoppable this year in blistering cold weather, I don't care who you are there is no way to be prepared for that brutal environment unless you play there.  Point being lets not let a bad game make us forget what this team does best.  Put up points on both side of the ball and run opposing defenses into the ground with relentless attacking.  The Titens looked pretty good against a beat up Pittsburgh Defense but the rookie quarterback will commit enough turnovers and mistakes to make this a blow out victory for philly.  Not to mention that relentless blitzing will not serve the Titans well against Chip Kelly's Spread Offense spearheaded by Lesean McCoy and Darren Sproles.  Philly wins and covers.

Green Bay -9.5 
Do I really need to write this one up?  Its Arron Rodgers division game so doesn't matter home or away.  Both teams know each other very well and right now Green Bay just looks unstoppable and Minnesota will not be the team to stop them from rolling right now.  Green Bay wins and covers.

Cincinnati +1.5
Bengals having an off year this year and pretty much unpredictiable.  But no denying the Bengals have played their best football against weaker non-division opponents in away games this year.  And the way they played against the Saints last week was pretty damn good.  Thats also exactly how expect them to come out against the Texans where Andy Dalton has lost 2 playoff games at Houston in recent years I expect him to get some revenge this week in a non-prime time game on a Sunday afternoon and when it is not the playoffs.  So yeah rolling with the Bengals and points here this week as much as that kills me to say they are too good of a team to keep up their terrible slump and the win against the Saints last week is exactly what they needed to give them a spark.  Bengals to win outright and therefore cover the spread as well.

Denver -7.5
Payton Manning may have lost his 2 top targets but that won't stop him from rolling over a Miami Dolphins team at home in Denver.  Tannahill will have his typical terrible game after a stretch of good games like he always does and he is long over due.  Dolphins will not be able to prepare for the frigid cold in Denver and the thin air in the environment nor will they be able to prepare for a pissed off Manning coming off back to back losses one of the a blow out and the other to the Rams......need I say more?  I know I know what about Miami great pass rush just like the Rams?  Well Manning is also the greatest at making adjustments and believe me he will be ready for the Dolphins pass rush.  Manning bounces back in a big way at home and the Broncos win and cover the spread.


That's all I got for this week's games.  The rest of the games on the slate I wouldn't touch with a 10 foot pole.  Maybe take Indy at home to cover over the Jags especially after the Colts took a beating at home against NE last week.  Plus Luck is clutch in division games and I am sure is pretty pissed off still from last week.  Anyway BOL to everybody. 

In reference to your KC pick.

All I meant was that I kept reading people saying KC will not cover and may even loose the game solely bc they are worried about Denver the following week and don't care about the game with Oakland. I just feel that is a complete flawed way of picking a team to bet on that's all. But thank you my good sir and best of luck to you too.

A lot of people are taking Oakland ML... Why? Hopes and dreams IMO. Two things here: one team is hungry for a division crown and the other for ONE WIN. So, take the hungry winless Raiders +7 or ML? 

All this Oakland love around here is just 

Thanks for your response. That clears that up. BOL to a profitable week.

Great picks and write ups. Good read. I disagree with the Atlanta pick, and would take Cleveland, but certainly not confident enough to put any dough on it. Both teams have a ton to play for, I just think Josh Gordon makes a bigger impact than people expect vs. the pylons in the Atlanta secondary.