Today marks the 49ers 20th playoff game since 2011. Excluding last year's loss to the Eagles, where the had no able body to throw the football, the 49ers have gone 13-5 SU in those 18 games. Those 5 losses were:
2011 - overtime loss to Giants in NFC championship game
2012 - Loss to Baltimore in Super Bowl by 3, where they had the ball first and goal to win the game
2013 - Loss to Seattle by 6 in NFC championship, where they were denied at the goal line on the final play
2019 - Loss in Super Bowl to the Chiefs where they lead by 10 points with 7:03 to play in the game
2021 - Loss in NFC championship game after leading by 14 in the 4th quarter
If you look at the Shanahan era alone, the Niners are 8-2 SU in the playoffs. In the 2 losses, the Niners had the game firmly in hand in the 4th quarter and were arguably one play away from winning both games.
If you look at Shanahan in the playoffs alone, including the Patriots Falcons Super Bowl, he has had double digit leads in the 4th quarter in his 3 playoff losses.
the 49ers are 6-0 their last 6 playoff games as favorites.
There is nothing in SF's recent history to give any indication they will get dominated today. They might lose the game, but if they do it will be close. They are always well prepared. If The Niners blow another late double digit lead today, they will have a permanent stink on them, a la Buffalo Bills.
The Chiefs enter this game with the #27 ranked DVOA run defense, facing a team whose identity is running the football well. The Chiefs gave up 4.5 yards per carry during the regular season and are only 7-6 when teams run for 110 yards against them. Baltimore only ran the ball one time in the first half after Gus Edwards long run early in the AFC championship game. They never went back to the run after that. If the Niners run the ball, it will open the Niners playbook up wide and they will win this game today.
Secondly, The Chiefs defense excels at blitzing with a 61.5% pressure rate. Spagnola's playoff history suggests this will be a point of emphasis today for the Chiefs. Brock Purdy is number one in the league by far at beating the blitz. To me, these are the 2 biggest keys to the Niners winning today.
I initially like the under in this game, but it seems so does everyone else. San Fran's defense hasn't played a great game in months. Not sure if they can revert to form today, but getting embarrassed the last 2 games for the world to see should provide some motivation.
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