A niche in the lines exist for sure money.
275 plus KC
500 plus Pittsburg
600 plus new Orleans
Wins the super bowl.
A 20 unit 11 unit and 9 unit pays 55 unit.
Hence example
200 dollars for. Kansas City.
110 for Pittsburg
And 90 for new Orleans.
If another team emerges it to fave these league leaders
It will be a heavy underdog and a hedge exists to poaitive return.
If these teams face each other your already hedged for the m/l....
The three are leaders in their divisions .
The three represent 96% probability of being in the super bowl. When the super bowl emerges the probability of having the favorite team at great odds emerges.
It works I do it every year....
The books will make money pay the bills keep the lights on and hope y'all get a covid shot soon....
Anyone in the playoffs ..
No one knows how Covid is going to pan out ...
Also they might add another seed and eliminate the bye in the process ...
Dont think betting on 3 seperate chalks makes any sense ...
No way ..KC is going to the extremely tough to beat .. Watching key drives on all 22 I'd embarrassing for the NFL ...They get away with a ton of holding when the REFS allow it...
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Ok I have in this equation the top three teams to win ml super bowl at neg 300. Is there a better line and I feel the Saints will face KC or Pittsburg. If this doesn't
whatever team neg puts up will be a huge dog on the ml in my opinion. I lose if none of those teams actual make the big game.....
If the playoffs started now these would be the teams, but injuries happen down the stretch, teams peak early, other teams get on a roll and emerge.
Last season at this point the four top teams were ravens, patriots, 49ers and saints, none of them won the sb and only one made it to the conference title game. Playoffs could be crazy this year because there will be empty stadiums and more upsets because of a lack of homefield advantage.
Well... are you hedging with Pittsburgh in case KC has an off day? I thought about this for a quick second. It looks like you're going with the top teams but IMO the NFC is more open than the AFC. I don't think any of those teams can beat the Chiefs in the playoffs despite any given Sunday. So although I never do this kind of betting, I would think there's more value in betting another team from the NFC. Rams, Packers, Seahawks and Bucs all have potential. I don't think the Bills, Titans or even Steelers can beat the Chiefs. I liked the Ravens way back before Jackson regressed a bit and the option play wasn't quite as effective for them. They had the defense that might be able to throw something at Mahomes. Maybe the Steelers can come up with something but I'll have to see it to believe it.
Here is the seeds been in SB past 7 years............................... and this is common place in NFL, not just past 7 years although we did go through a period where surprise teams did make the SB, majority of them lost to chalk , but even in that period you still had to be on the right team with many to chose from to get one of the few winners.
2013 ... 1 and 1
2014....1&1
2015...1&2
2016....1&2
2017 ...1&1
2018...2&2
2019 ...1&2
a 1 seed has made 6 of past 7 SB's and has won 4 of past 7 SB's , one of the 2 seeds won was Pats over the Rams both 2 seeds and Pats are going to be amoung the heavy chalk so that makes 5 of 7 heavy chalk won SB.
THE LAST TIME YOU EVEN GOT A SNIFF AT A LONGER SHOT TEAM WINNING SB WAS 8 YEARS AGO, you could easily go 10,12 years or more without any longer shot team winning the SB.
Even then you'd have to be on the right long shot team since there will be many to chose from and at times the least likely long shot team is the one that wins the SB in the rare cases one of those teams does happen to win, like the 2007 Giants.
Nothing wrong with betting chalk as he has done here.
Yes I do agree we don't know how covid will play out but that is not a reason to back a long shot team as you have no clue whether covid will affect that long shot team either, you simply don't know the answer to who will be affected, so therefore you want to use info you know the answer to, not info you don't have a clue who will be affected.
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