Futures bet finalized

Question

After much analytics and crunching the numbers, here is my ticket: Basically I am betting that NYG take down GB this weekend, then I can hedge in the following rounds and lock in profit with any outcome, even if it is chalk the entire way.

1/5/17 12:58pm

$250.00

$19,000.00

Pending

1/7/17 4:35pm Football NFL Super Bowl LI matchup - Pittsburgh Steelers vs New York Giants +7600

wildcat95 · Answer

After much analytics and crunching the numbers, here is my ticket: Basically I am betting that NYG take down GB this weekend, then I can hedge in the following rounds and lock in profit with any outcome, even if it is chalk the entire way.

1/5/17 12:58pm

$250.00

$19,000.00

Pending

1/7/17 4:35pm Football NFL Super Bowl LI matchup - Pittsburgh Steelers vs New York Giants +7600

BIGfnPOO · Answer

hahah i made the same bet .............@ arat behind 60-1

wildcat95 · Answer

If I had waited an hour, the line jumped to &#x2B;8400 on 5dimes.  Maybe I will double up, but then you are laying around $25K on a Pats hedge.

BIGfnPOO · Answer

i see now my bet is pitt beats nyg in sb...@ 60-1

wildcat95 · Answer

You need to add Pitt v NYG, much better odds

HIGHWAY1 · Answer

There are two matchups i find highly probable for the Super Bowl ... The first is what you mentioned Steelers v Giants, the other is Falcons v Chiefs.

The league loves putting a high powered offense against the dominant defense.

wildcat95 · Answer

Pats are beatable but it will be very tough for the Chiefs to go on the road and pull off the upset.  Actually, I don&#x27;t see them getting past the Steelers at Arrowhead. 5dimes has the Pats -295 vs Chiefs.  I would expect around -260 vs Pitt.

bpickin · Answer

I think it will be Pitt/Green Bay or Pitt/dallas and better chance of Pitt/Green Bay being that dak is a rookie...

bpickin · Answer

Giants have all ready been on the road for 2 weeks and this will make 3 and they will stay on the road. That just seems near impossible. I know they did I before, but was that following 3 final regular season road games? If so then good luck because that's a great bet. That would definitely be my third choice. I truly believe Pitt is going to the Super Bowl. I have had Pitt futures since before then season started and have been adding since their major losing streak early on... either way it's gonna be fun watching it unfold.

I haven't picked any plays for his weekend yet so my choices can obviously change, but even if a team covers the spread it doesn't necessarily mean they have to win or not...

Mathwiz · Answer

My future bet I placed today was. Pittsburgh &#x2B;800 to win it all. I think that&#x27;s great value. Also made a NBA champ wager. Rockets &#x2B;3300. I&#x27;ll take those odds for a $100 when it&#x27;s not my $100 to begin with. I&#x27;m up with book and will continue to be up.

Ed-Collins · Answer

I&#x27;d be very interested in hearing how/why you think &#x2B;800 is great value, especially with your chose handle name; Mathwiz.The math says otherwise.In order for Pittsburgh to win it all, they have to win four games.  It is possible to estimate their chances of winning each game, and after doing so we can determine the overall probability.Against the Dolphins they are favored by about 10 points.  This correlates to a win probability of .78.  (Source: Wizard of Odds website "Betting the NFL.")If the beat the Dolphins they will travel to Kansas City and play the Chiefs, where they will be a very slight dog, probably by two points.  However, let&#x27;s give them the benefit of the doubt and call this game a pick&#x27;em, for a win probability of .5Assuming they defeat the Chiefs they will probably have to travel to New England.  They will also be a slight dog in New England.  Let&#x27;s again give them the benefit of the doubt and say the spread is just 3, which correlates to a win probability of .40.I will also give them the benefit of the doubt and give them a win probability of .6 in the Super Bowl.Thus, their chances of winning the Super Bowl are the product of each individual probability..78 x .5 x .4 x .6 = .0936.   Their chances of Pittsburgh winning the Super Bowl are, at best, about 9%.It might also be as small as 6%. (.78 x .45 x .35 x .5)You will eventually go broke getting &#x2B;800 odds on an event that occurs just 6 to 9% of the time.Thus, I see NO value at all in &#x2B;800, let alone great value.487

glyde69 · Answer

Take them ML and roll all 4 games for a better payout.

piotrtoro · Answer

[Quote:You will eventually go broke getting &#x2B;800 odds on an event that occurs just 6 to 9% of the time.Thus, I see NO value at all in &#x2B;800, let alone great value.487  [/Quote]

rm990 · Answer

I&#x27;m with the other posters who are questioning the "value" here... If you like Pitt, great, by all means bet out on them. You&#x27;re just taking the worst of it with this bet though. Future odds are typically one of the worst propositions out there. There are occasions where you can extract value but this late in the game, books usually have these numbers pretty tight. I personally think the best time to bet futures is between the 1/4 and 3/4 mark of any season. You will sometimes find a team who ends up an overlay due to the book&#x27;s liability on other teams

wildcat95 · Answer

Agreed, the only value you get is matching them up with a long shot in the NFC.  The Giants have a legit path.  I strongly considered NE/NYG at &#x2B;2250.  Then you are only taking one dog and hedging them vs GB, Dall, and Atl/Sea winner.  Those numbers didn&#x27;t make sense.  Basically, NE has one semi-challenging game to make it through to SB.  They will be -6.5 vs KC and -4.5 vs Pitt.

Mathwiz · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by Ed-Collins]  I&#x27;d be very interested in hearing how/why you think &#x2B;800 is great value, especially with your chose handle name; Mathwiz.The math says otherwise.In order for Pittsburgh to win it all, they have to win four games.  It is possible to estimate their chances of winning each game, and after doing so we can determine the overall probability.Against the Dolphins they are favored by about 10 points.  This correlates to a win probability of .78.  (Source: Wizard of Odds website "Betting the NFL.")If the beat the Dolphins they will travel to Kansas City and play the Chiefs, where they will be a very slight dog, probably by two points.  However, let&#x27;s give them the benefit of the doubt and call this game a pick&#x27;em, for a win probability of .5Assuming they defeat the Chiefs they will probably have to travel to New England.  They will also be a slight dog in New England.  Let&#x27;s again give them the benefit of the doubt and say the spread is just 3, which correlates to a win probability of .40.I will also give them the benefit of the doubt and give them a win probability of .6 in the Super Bowl.Thus, their chances of winning the Super Bowl are the product of each individual probability..78 x .5 x .4 x .6 = .0936.   Their chances of Pittsburgh winning the Super Bowl are, at best, about 9%.It might also be as small as 6%. (.78 x .45 x .35 x .5)You will eventually go broke getting &#x2B;800 odds on an event that occurs just 6 to 9% of the time.Thus, I see NO value at all in &#x2B;800, let alone great value.487  [/Quote]Dude, you make me want to recant my wager. NICE explanation though. I&#x27;m making a wager. Not writing a thesis on Pythagoras&#x27;s theorem. Just kidding dude. I much appreciate your enthusiasm. You obviously have mathematical knowledge. Anyway, great write-up dude. Good Luck to you in your wagers.

Mathwiz · Answer

I plan on doing that. Pittsburgh will be a small dog versus KC and NE. Better for me of course. Thanks

pinballwizard · Answer

Fick, no wonder the bookies get rich.

Futures bet finalized

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