Quote Originally Posted by Mathwiz:
My future bet I placed today was. Pittsburgh +800 to win it all. I think that's great value.
I'd be very interested in hearing how/why you think +800 is great value, especially with your chose handle name; Mathwiz.
The math says otherwise.
In order for Pittsburgh to win it all, they have to win four games. It is possible to estimate their chances of winning each game, and after doing so we can determine the overall probability.
Against the Dolphins they are favored by about 10 points. This correlates to a win probability of .78. (Source: Wizard of Odds website "Betting the NFL.")
If the beat the Dolphins they will travel to Kansas City and play the Chiefs, where they will be a very slight dog, probably by two points. However, let's give them the benefit of the doubt and call this game a pick'em, for a win probability of .5
Assuming they defeat the Chiefs they will probably have to travel to New England. They will also be a slight dog in New England. Let's again give them the benefit of the doubt and say the spread is just 3, which correlates to a win probability of .40.
I will also give them the benefit of the doubt and give them a win probability of .6 in the Super Bowl.
Thus, their chances of winning the Super Bowl are the product of each individual probability.
.78 x .5 x .4 x .6 = .0936. Their chances of Pittsburgh winning the Super Bowl are, at best, about 9%.
It might also be as small as 6%. (.78 x .45 x .35 x .5)
You will eventually go broke getting +800 odds on an event that occurs just 6 to 9% of the time.
Thus, I see NO value at all in +800, let alone great value.
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