Girthy Wild Card Playoff Picks. Cin-Pit write-up

I've been back and forth on all of these games which isn't a good thing but I've finally locked in a few picks.

Bengals ML +130

As I've stated in a few of my threads, I am a huge Bengals fan. Go to all the games, I'll be there tomorrow. I try to avoid bias and I'd say I do a pretty good job with that. Last week I couldn't have been cheering any harder for the Jets. Steelers at home... absolute worst case scenario for the Bengals. I think I'd rather be playing them in Pittsburgh. My initial thought, naturally, was here we go again. 4 straight first round losses and we face the team that always has our number and always crushes our dreams (Carson Palmer, 10 years ago today). But after taking the emotion out of it and really analyzing the match up, I started to see where the Bengals could have an advantage.

Let's not put too much emphasis into the last meeting. McCarron was not prepared to start that game and minus the two turnovers he played pretty well. The Steelers only scored 23 points on offense (taking away 10 points from the pick six and int returned to the bengals 10) and that was during the stretch they could not be stopped. The damage the Steelers did in that game was on 3rd down. The Bengals could not get off the field after playing very well on 1st and 2nd down. DeAngelo Williams only averaged 3.3 ypc in the game after averaging nearly 8 ypc in the first matchup, the Cin D had to focus on him. The Bengals always do a relatively good job on Antonio Brown but always get killed by Heath Miller. He destroys them on 3rd down. The Bengals D line is a very solid group but very inconsistent. They didn't get pressure on Ben last game and that will change. Not having DeAngelo will kill the Steelers and make them one dimensional. That will not be effective against the Bengals defense. Vontaze Burfict is playing his best football since his injury in 2013 and is finally fully healthy. He is extremely active and all over the field. He makes everyone around him better.

AJ McCarron has done a solid job in Andy Dalton's absence but he's going to need to step it up in two areas. He must get the ball out quickly. He has been holding on to the ball much longer than Dalton and is getting sacked at a higher rate while defenses are blitzing at a much lower percentage. He also must be accurate on throws down the field. He has missed a few open receivers down field the past few weeks. I do like that he does stretch the field and takes shots down the field. Why wouldn't you when you have weapons such as AJ Green, Marvin Jones, and Tyler Eifert. Marvin Jones is a FA this off season and will get a nice contract. He's big and athletic and AJ has thrown him the ball more than Dalton did and I really like that. Sanu has been involved more in the offense and the few wildcat looks he has gotten have been effective. Don't be surprised if this is the game that Hue Jackson calls for a Sanu throw. He is 3/3 with 2 touchdowns in his career. The Bengals have a solid offensive line and two good running backs. Jeremy Hill has been running with more urgency and better vision as of late. He's been dancing around less and they're going to need him to run hard tomorrow. Gio is a playmaker and is reliable out of the backfield. Bottom line, this team is loaded offensively and has no weak spots. Quarterback is the one question mark and as long as he stays mistake free and makes the plays expected of him, they should be able to move the ball on Pitt. Pitts D is really solid in the front seven but they have a very weak secondary. Ryan Mallet tore them apart for goodness sake.

Would I be surprised if the Steelers win. Absolutely not. I'm used to it. I'm ready for it. I can already feel the disappointment. But I think the Steelers are being overrated here and without DeAngelo Williams they will be very one dimensional. Big Ben is great and has dominated the Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium but Geno Atkins, Carlos Dunlap, and Michael Johnson will be coming after him and force him into some bad throws. The Bengals seem focused and ready. They've been there before (and lost) but I think McCarron is up for the challenge and the team believes in him. It will be raining during the game and I don't think that'll be a big factor but could benefit the Bengals and their running game. Should be similar to the first matchup in Pitt. The under is a great pick as well but I'll be rolling with Bengals ML. I can't take any more disappointment.

BOL

Packers -1

Not much of a write-up for this one. Just a feeling. Redskins are red hot and have been great at home all year but haven't played good competition. GB is playing so poorly but has played well against good teams. GB has looked plain bad so I wouldn't be surprised if they lose but I think Rodgers and company can squeak one out. The Redskins defense is not good so the Pack receivers may get open for once.

Might add another pick or a teaser before the games begin