You can save yourself a lot of money in this business if you just avoid bad teams... which are more often than not led by bad QBs and backup QBs.
CLE, NYG, LVR, and TN immediately come to mind this past season.
Look at this way.. Do you really want to entrust your money w/ these shitty QBs, "hoping" that you are getting enough points ? (No.) You can't forecast just how poorly they handle the football, which lead to TOs... which are game-wreckers. It is OK to 'blackball' certain teams, meaning you bet on them under no circumstance. 
The chalkiest season in DECADES.
Every year favorites ATS cash at about 41-47%. I don’t want to say it’s a given, as there’s always outlier years, but expect “chalk” to always be on the north side of 50%.
The occasional year things end up more chalky, you might be 51-52%
Then the one year that comes along…..where if u take away week 18 when all the spreads were upside down…..and the favorites hit at 59.5% Well over 60% since week 4 or 5…….
Maybe THIS isn’t the season to proclaim that betting bad teams…..is a lock and it’s a cardinal rule to stay away from “bad teams.” Maybe this season isn’t the time to manipulate younger bettors into a 2025 bloodbath!!
Maybe I’m crazy…….
And shit, if you came out week 8 and gave reasons that bad teams are especially bad this year. That (insert 12 bad team) will burn up your money. I would argue. And then after the season, I would apologize and tell you good call sniffing that out and I failed into making my own adjustments……
You telling us after the season who sucks!!!!!!
TJ and R51 are blowing smoke, and research shows that dogs (Ds) are, in the long run, more lucrative than favorites (Fs).
While the 2023 and 2024 seasons had Fs covering more than 50% of the games, Ds had the edge in 15 of the previous 18 seasons.
The Sports Database has data back to 1989. Naturally any claims which are valid for over 30 seasons is more reliable than a one-season sample.
The simple query "D" shows they are ATS: 4564-4349-259 (-0.0,51.2%).
Now let's check winning percentage (WP), because sometimes strong teams are Ds:
D and WP < 40 ATS: 2038-1885-100 (-0.1,52.0%)
D and WP > 40 ATS: 2073-2037-127 (-0.0,50.4%) That's right - the weaker teams do better ATS than the stronger teams.
Now let's check really weak teams, those that probably have pathetic QBs that are on VERY few fantasy football teams:
D and WP < 19 ATS: 817-688-37 (0.1,54.3%) Sometimes a lousy QB can be an NFL bettor's ace in the hole.
Cold hard facts validated by research beat baseless bullshxt opinions almost all of the time. Individual games and even entire seasons can vary.
Really ? I didn't see it that way from the start. I never bet "on" Daniel Jones ( wasn't a believer), Deshaun Watson , Cooper Rush, Jameis Winston, and whoever LVR and TN decided to start this year....Not Once. So, no, it's not that difficult to 'blackball' some QBs i.e teams, from consideration.
Go read my post again.. just because I never bet on these teams w shitty QBs.... "" doesn't mean I bet against them every time " . I'm not profiting from it, but I do keep myself away from losing money.
Because these lines are tying so large, I'll never bet the Fav either because I hate laying big points..
... I am thinning out the herd and finding better opportunities ( games) elsewhere.
And If I ever started a thread on this....think about it. it wouldn't be very entertaining to most . I wouldn't be telling you who to bet on.... I would telling you who to avoid.
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