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green bay vs detriot . REALLY???

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Prospect
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Posted: #1
line opens at -13 and now down to -10.5 and people believe detroit can win or cover.. because green bay lost 2 games on road to 2 top tier playoff teams in there home stadium. top tier teams dont lose at home. with that said.
arron rogers now back at home is 24-0 at home in last 24 games he has not lost since opening game 2012 against s.f. and green bay is 17-5 ats against detroit since 1992.

coming home after back to back losses against the worst record team in NFL and the public wants the points. i expect it to be 14-0 gb in first quarter with detriot backers already sweating it out and slowly watch there pick fade away as gb stretches lead.

you know gb and arron are highly motivated after 2 losses back at home and with vikings having tied division record.

i have gb -10.5 in 8 team parlay and im going to hit that parlay this week.. i have solid picks.
 
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Posted: #2
division game after extra rest getting a boat load of points. Backdoor will be wide open if they don't Keep it close all game. What are you smoking?
 
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Posted: #3
bpickin, i never bet on a team to hope for a "back door cover" while the team im betting on is losing big. it does happen but not very often. in my opinion its these games that mess up a cappers head infuture  betting. a back door cover is different than a live dog in my betting on the dog with points.
detroit is not a live dog in this game.
in this game 1 of 3 things will happen

g.b. blows them out 11 or more points  (65% chance)
detriot covers (31% chance)
detroit wins outright (4% chance)



 
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Posted: #4
I wish you good luck . This is not a game that I would touch after getting burned by gb last week. I'm not big on faves as it is, but I can't side with them especially since it's a division game and Detroit is desperate to get things going.
 
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Posted: #5
No back door cover in this game.....
 
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Posted: #6
thanks bpickin,  we all know anything and everything happens in the nfl. i usually bet what has i see as an advantage.. if gb was undefeated i would worry it would be a let down game ( wont play hard to put game away early but just be competitive to win). i see gb re-energized playing at home. packers stadium does that to you.
 
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Posted: #7
Bol
 
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Posted: #8
double digit chalk within the division is not a good idea in the long run

this is a different team without Jordy

they haven't looked really dominant all year 

but GL
 
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Posted: #9
Ill be all over Green Bay.  No matter the number.
 
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Posted: #10
I dont see Detroit being  desperate at all.  I see no reason for them to care.  Theyre starting over.  The season is done. Even if not Stafford is not good.  Calvin aint the same.  Rodgers will light up this defense.  GB by 20+ easy.
 
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Posted: #11
The sharps pounded the Lions when the line came out. Of course the sharps have been on the Lions most of year and have lost.  For me it is the lions or nothing.  The Lions have been abysmal, and the Packers have a big look ahead facing the much more competitive division rival the Vikings next week.  I will stay away much better games out there.
 
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Posted: #12
Packer defense isn't 100%. They're not gonna slow Detroit down on offense 
 
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Posted: #13
powercore, to me a sandwich game (look ahead game) is when a good team travels to a non conference away game to play an avg team but looks ahead to a huge HOME divsion game but avg. team shows up to prove they came beat a good team. the good team barely wins and get out of town back home asap. (with home dog covering)
this game is not one of those games. lions are a bottom dweller low confidence DIVISION GAME. no look ahead by packers. they mean to take care of business and get points on the board at home after 2 straight losses and rebuild confidence. coaching and rogers are focused to reinstill confidence in the team in this game. a blow out does that heading into minn week after. a weak showing by green bay tells minn they can win and they will play harder. a blow out on detroit sends a message to minn - watch out this is the packers division we own this.
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by themouse:

powercore, to me a sandwich game (look ahead game) is when a good team travels to a non conference away game to play an avg team but looks ahead to a huge HOME divsion game but avg. team shows up to prove they came beat a good team. the good team barely wins and get out of town back home asap. (with home dog covering)
this game is not one of those games. lions are a bottom dweller low confidence DIVISION GAME. no look ahead by packers. they mean to take care of business and get points on the board at home after 2 straight losses and rebuild confidence. coaching and rogers are focused to reinstill confidence in the team in this game. a blow out does that heading into minn week after. a weak showing by green bay tells minn they can win and they will play harder. a blow out on detroit sends a message to minn - watch out this is the packers division we own this.

Yes, I like your logic, some the reasons I staying away from the game. I do not play NFL favorites over -7, been burned by too many backdoor covers especially when the favorite is public backed.  The OVER really looks like the play here, but I suck at totals so I don't play them anymore.  Green Bay really does need a bounce back in the worst way though.
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by Wizerguy:

No back door cover in this game.....



 
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Posted: #16
This kind of reminds me of the 2014 season where Rogers was telling everyone to RELAX when they started 1-2. Obviously much better start to this season but 2 straight losses seems to have people in a panic about how good they really are. Take a look at who they lost to...1 still undefeated team and 1 team who was undefeated until last week. Let's not get carried away here. Yeah both losses were ugly; not going to dispute that, but both games were away and Rogers is lights out at home which is where this game is. Detroit is not a good team this year, and I don't think that's up for discussion. One win against the bears, and 28 points against the Chargers in a loss (a very weak defense) and outside of that no more than 19 points scored in their other 6 games. I guess if you are taking Detroit you are hoping they put up 20+ points (which they haven't done against a decent defense yet) because I don't see GB scoring less than 30 in this game at home. I could be way off, but I would heavily lean packers here and if I were teasing this game I would be teasing GB down to -4.5 instead of thinking DET was a lock at +16. This game could get ugly in a hurry for DET and I wouldn't want to be counting on a backdoor cover if they were down by 17+ late in the game. Best of luck to anyone putting in a wager on this game.
 
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Posted: #17
Look ahead???? Slow down Detroit on offense??? 

It's a division game.  The games that matter more then any.  Detroit hasn't won in GB in 24 years.  

Detroit offense.... Lol.  Watch Stafford sir.  They have no offense.  
 
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Posted: #18
mouse- im a packer fan but bpickin is right. divisional games are a whole different ball game. gb may get off to a big lead early, as they often do, but they also sit on those leads. joique bell will see more carries as he is 100% for the first time this year. it doesn't make sense, I know, and it took me years to see this but I would go with det +13.5. however I cant go against my boys. no play for me. glta
 
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Posted: #19
Flat track bullies are back at home
 
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Posted: #20
I like GB -7 1H. 

Lions always with the slow start, Packers at home have had 2 TDs 1Q in several games so far.

I dont like playing halves or quarters unless there's a good reason. Last week I took NE 1Q. BOL
 
 
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Posted: #21
Yeah wow I admit I was wrong on this game. Good call to those of you who had money on DET either ATS or SU. Watched almost the entire game and was struck by how bad GB offense looked throughout. There were times where the GB receivers couldn't get any separation and even when they did get open Rogers couldn't seem to get the ball accurately to them. Not the offense we are used to seeing, and not the cool and composed Rogers we are used to seeing at home. I knew going into the season losing Jordy was going to be a big blow but didn't realize how much it would affect their entire offense not having him as a go-to guy. I really thought the crowd played a part as well...I mean booing to end the 1st half? Wow! Show a little respect to your team that was 6-2 at that point (2 losses to very good teams) and is having a slow start at home. Offenses have off days where they just don't click...it happens, rally behind your team in those moments. Talk about a spoiled fan base...so used to seeing perfection at home that any sign of trouble leads to booing. The crazy thing is they still had a chance to walk away with a win at the end. Oh well, I ended up taking the packers in 3 small bets this game (GB-7 at half),GB in a teaser, and GB-10.5 in a parlay and lost all 3. Live and learn.
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