From VSIN Sports:
- The outright winner has covered the point spread in all but six of the last 44 (86.4%) conference championship playoff games. The most recent team to not do that was the Rams of 2022, as they edged San Francisco 20-17 as 3.5-point favorites. If you recall, this is just a tic below the current wild card rate of (86.6%) by outright winners but well above the divisional round rate (75.6%).
- Hosts are on a 16-4 SU and 13-7 ATS (65%) run in conference championship play, with both the Chiefs and Eagles beating the point spreads in their games a year ago.
- There have been 10 road favorites in the last 26 years of the conference championship playoffs, and those teams are 6-4 SU and 5-4-1 ATS. Most recently, Minnesota lost in 2018 to Philadelphia, 38-7 as a 3-point favorite. Neither game will feature a road favorite in 2024.
- Beware of large home favorites in the conference championship round, at least in terms of laying the points, as those closing as 7-point favorites or more are 12-6 SU but just 6-12 ATS (33.3%) since 1999.
- Conversely, hosts favored by less than 7 points are 17-5 SU and 15-7 ATS (68.2%) in their last 22 tries.
- The last 20 times that a home team has won and covered the point spread in the conference title games, that game has also gone Over the total at a 14-6 (70%) rate. However, this was 0-2 in 2023. The last 12 times that a road team covered the point spread in conference title action, Under the total is 8-4, including 2-0 in 2022.
- Teams that won by 7 points or less in the divisional round are just 3-17 SU and 8-12 ATS (40%) in their last 20 road conference title game appearances, including the loss by San Francisco last year. This trend applies to Kansas City this Sunday.
- In intra-divisional conference championship games of this playoff round, the favorites are on a 5-1 SU and 3-3 ATS (50%) surge. This won’t apply to either contest for a second straight season.
- Home teams are 14-3 SU and 11-6 ATS (64.7%) in the last 17 AFC clashes and 14-5 SU and 10-9 ATS (52.6%) in their last 19 NFC tilts.
- Of the teams in the AFC and NFC Championship contests this year, Baltimore is making its fifth straight appearance since 2001, all on the road, boasting a 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS in the prior four. Kansas City is in for a sixth straight year and looking for a fourth AFC crown, having split the games 3-2 SU and ATS. However, this will be the first one they have played on the road since a 1994 loss at Buffalo. San Francisco is making its 11th conference title game appearance since ‘93 and owns a 3-7 SU and 4-6 ATS record in the prior six while Detroit has only played in the game once, losing 41-10 to Washington in 1992.
- Since the 2004 season, playoff experience has meant a great deal to championship hosts. In fact, home teams that were in the playoffs the prior year are on a 23-7 SU and 18-12 ATS (60%) run, including 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS (60%) versus teams that weren’t in the playoffs the prior season. Both AFC teams were in the 2023 playoffs, as was San Francisco. Detroit is in its first playoffs since 2017.