Don't understand why you guys rely so heavy on these year end rankings. The teams playing now are way different to how they are at the beginning of the season.
Performance of a defense is often affected by it's offense and it's ability to keep the defense off the field. Eagles offensive personelle is a lot different than it was most of the year.
Same with pats. There's been many injuries both sides of the ball so it's really not good to rely solely on the overall year rankings. Yea pats got blown out week 1 against kc. Don't know how many yards they gave up but a few bad games can really skew your rankings. They've played pretty good defense as of late though. Better than I've expected.
I hate pats and tom Brady with a passion but I hate losing more. Might he double whammy but here goes.
Pats -4.5
Under 48
Good luck!
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Don't understand why you guys rely so heavy on these year end rankings. The teams playing now are way different to how they are at the beginning of the season.
Performance of a defense is often affected by it's offense and it's ability to keep the defense off the field. Eagles offensive personelle is a lot different than it was most of the year.
Same with pats. There's been many injuries both sides of the ball so it's really not good to rely solely on the overall year rankings. Yea pats got blown out week 1 against kc. Don't know how many yards they gave up but a few bad games can really skew your rankings. They've played pretty good defense as of late though. Better than I've expected.
I hate pats and tom Brady with a passion but I hate losing more. Might he double whammy but here goes.
Don't understand why you guys rely so heavy on these year end rankings. The teams playing now are way different to how they are at the beginning of the season.
What a screwy post. His second sentence directly contradicts his first sentence.
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Quote Originally Posted by aznluder:
Don't understand why you guys rely so heavy on these year end rankings. The teams playing now are way different to how they are at the beginning of the season.
What a screwy post. His second sentence directly contradicts his first sentence.
QUOTE Originally Posted by aznluder: Don't understand why you guys rely so heavy on these year end rankings. The teams playing now are way different to how they are at the beginning of the season. What a screwy post. His second sentence directly contradicts his first sentence.
How so? I'm questioning how you can judge a teams current performance based on stats from 4 months ago when lots have changed. Instead look at the recent performance but don't rely too much on it as there are other factors in play such as matchups and situations playcalling.
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Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams:
QUOTE Originally Posted by aznluder: Don't understand why you guys rely so heavy on these year end rankings. The teams playing now are way different to how they are at the beginning of the season. What a screwy post. His second sentence directly contradicts his first sentence.
How so? I'm questioning how you can judge a teams current performance based on stats from 4 months ago when lots have changed. Instead look at the recent performance but don't rely too much on it as there are other factors in play such as matchups and situations playcalling.
how about last 3 games week 17 and why did brady polay all game vs jets who came in with 3rd string rookie qb bryce petty any way pats gave up 6 week 17 .14 to titans and 20 to jags which ='s 40 points.Eagles gave up 6 to dallas 10 to falcons and only 7 to the vikings which is only 23 points 40 - 23 = 17 points better are the eagles on defense and points allowed and both teams played at comfy home all 3 games
It's quite comical how you decide to pick just past 3 weeks including a week 17 game and carefully decided to NOT include the 3 week stretch (not thay far back) where they gave up 24, 35, and 29 points to the GIANTS!!!
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Quote Originally Posted by zebrakiller:
how about last 3 games week 17 and why did brady polay all game vs jets who came in with 3rd string rookie qb bryce petty any way pats gave up 6 week 17 .14 to titans and 20 to jags which ='s 40 points.Eagles gave up 6 to dallas 10 to falcons and only 7 to the vikings which is only 23 points 40 - 23 = 17 points better are the eagles on defense and points allowed and both teams played at comfy home all 3 games
It's quite comical how you decide to pick just past 3 weeks including a week 17 game and carefully decided to NOT include the 3 week stretch (not thay far back) where they gave up 24, 35, and 29 points to the GIANTS!!!
How so? I'm questioning how you can judge a teams current performance based on stats from 4 months ago when lots have changed. Instead look at the recent performance but don't rely too much on it as there are other factors in play such as matchups and situations playcalling.
Jeff Sagarin's Overall power ratings have NE -1.40. His Recent powers ratings (weighing more heavily the recent games with Foles at QB) have PHL -1.81. Putting more emphasis on recent games rather than what happened at the beginning of the season makes me like PHL more. Either PHL's defense is peaking at the right time and/or Foles is performing just fine in PHL's offense.
If you don't know who Jeff Sagarin is, you are a woefully uninformed sports bettor.
You have NE - 4.5 and I have PHL +4.5.
We'll see what happens.
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Quote Originally Posted by aznluder:
How so? I'm questioning how you can judge a teams current performance based on stats from 4 months ago when lots have changed. Instead look at the recent performance but don't rely too much on it as there are other factors in play such as matchups and situations playcalling.
Jeff Sagarin's Overall power ratings have NE -1.40. His Recent powers ratings (weighing more heavily the recent games with Foles at QB) have PHL -1.81. Putting more emphasis on recent games rather than what happened at the beginning of the season makes me like PHL more. Either PHL's defense is peaking at the right time and/or Foles is performing just fine in PHL's offense.
If you don't know who Jeff Sagarin is, you are a woefully uninformed sports bettor.
QUOTE Originally Posted by aznluder: How so? I'm questioning how you can judge a teams current performance based on stats from 4 months ago when lots have changed. Instead look at the recent performance but don't rely too much on it as there are other factors in play such as matchups and situations playcalling. Jeff Sagarin's Overall power ratings have NE -1.40. His Recent powers ratings (weighing more heavily the recent games with Foles at QB) have PHL -1.81. Putting more emphasis on recent games rather than what happened at the beginning of the season makes me like PHL more. Either PHL's defense is peaking at the right time and/or Foles is performing just fine in PHL's offense.If you don't know who Jeff Sagarin is, you are a woefully uninformed sports bettor.You have NE - 4.5 and I have PHL +4.5.We'll see what happens.
Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams:
QUOTE Originally Posted by aznluder: How so? I'm questioning how you can judge a teams current performance based on stats from 4 months ago when lots have changed. Instead look at the recent performance but don't rely too much on it as there are other factors in play such as matchups and situations playcalling. Jeff Sagarin's Overall power ratings have NE -1.40. His Recent powers ratings (weighing more heavily the recent games with Foles at QB) have PHL -1.81. Putting more emphasis on recent games rather than what happened at the beginning of the season makes me like PHL more. Either PHL's defense is peaking at the right time and/or Foles is performing just fine in PHL's offense.If you don't know who Jeff Sagarin is, you are a woefully uninformed sports bettor.You have NE - 4.5 and I have PHL +4.5.We'll see what happens.
Good luck to you. Someone will win lol
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Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams:
QUOTE Originally Posted by aznluder: How so? I'm questioning how you can judge a teams current performance based on stats from 4 months ago when lots have changed. Instead look at the recent performance but don't rely too much on it as there are other factors in play such as matchups and situations playcalling. Jeff Sagarin's Overall power ratings have NE -1.40. His Recent powers ratings (weighing more heavily the recent games with Foles at QB) have PHL -1.81. Putting more emphasis on recent games rather than what happened at the beginning of the season makes me like PHL more. Either PHL's defense is peaking at the right time and/or Foles is performing just fine in PHL's offense.If you don't know who Jeff Sagarin is, you are a woefully uninformed sports bettor.You have NE - 4.5 and I have PHL +4.5.We'll see what happens.
Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams:
QUOTE Originally Posted by aznluder: How so? I'm questioning how you can judge a teams current performance based on stats from 4 months ago when lots have changed. Instead look at the recent performance but don't rely too much on it as there are other factors in play such as matchups and situations playcalling. Jeff Sagarin's Overall power ratings have NE -1.40. His Recent powers ratings (weighing more heavily the recent games with Foles at QB) have PHL -1.81. Putting more emphasis on recent games rather than what happened at the beginning of the season makes me like PHL more. Either PHL's defense is peaking at the right time and/or Foles is performing just fine in PHL's offense.If you don't know who Jeff Sagarin is, you are a woefully uninformed sports bettor.You have NE - 4.5 and I have PHL +4.5.We'll see what happens.
Also the super bowl with all the distractions and time preparation is not like any normal game. I've been debating on both sides for awhile and not real confident in pats at all but it's not like I can lay off betting the biggest game of the year.
My over point and peave of this post is not my pick but putting your judgement on a team covering based too much on yearly stats. Zebra can you post that rankings thing again? I can't find it anywhere.
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Also the super bowl with all the distractions and time preparation is not like any normal game. I've been debating on both sides for awhile and not real confident in pats at all but it's not like I can lay off betting the biggest game of the year.
My over point and peave of this post is not my pick but putting your judgement on a team covering based too much on yearly stats. Zebra can you post that rankings thing again? I can't find it anywhere.
FO did this research some years back, they have a regular DVOA and a weighted DVOA which more recent games carry more weight, they researched the playoffs and found the entire regular season was a better predictor of playoff games then letting more recent games carry more weight.
More recently they have said it has turned to more recent games carrying more weight but only by a small amount.
More recent games is not any great predictor, judging SB teams by the entire seasons games is a great predictor over the years.
That is not my opinion but a fact. Anyone can look up these things but I suspect many people like to apply their common sense which is nothing more then opinion based instead of looking up the facts.
But the problem this year is the Foles factor, who only has a very small sample of games, we just don't know enough about his play to make any sense out of the entire seasons worth of stats, so yes it might be possible you win the Pasts -4.5.
But Pats winning will not be because the entire seasons worth of stats don't work, we don't have an entire seasons worth of stats on Foles.
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FO did this research some years back, they have a regular DVOA and a weighted DVOA which more recent games carry more weight, they researched the playoffs and found the entire regular season was a better predictor of playoff games then letting more recent games carry more weight.
More recently they have said it has turned to more recent games carrying more weight but only by a small amount.
More recent games is not any great predictor, judging SB teams by the entire seasons games is a great predictor over the years.
That is not my opinion but a fact. Anyone can look up these things but I suspect many people like to apply their common sense which is nothing more then opinion based instead of looking up the facts.
But the problem this year is the Foles factor, who only has a very small sample of games, we just don't know enough about his play to make any sense out of the entire seasons worth of stats, so yes it might be possible you win the Pasts -4.5.
But Pats winning will not be because the entire seasons worth of stats don't work, we don't have an entire seasons worth of stats on Foles.
It's quite comical how you decide to pick just past 3 weeks including a week 17 game and carefully decided to NOT include the 3 week stretch (not thay far back) where they gave up 24, 35, and 29 points to the GIANTS!!!
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Quote Originally Posted by aznluder:
It's quite comical how you decide to pick just past 3 weeks including a week 17 game and carefully decided to NOT include the 3 week stretch (not thay far back) where they gave up 24, 35, and 29 points to the GIANTS!!!
Guys, this is the PLAYOFFS.None of that meaningless data matters. Just like it matters little during the regular season...it matters much LESS now.Whomever the shield wants.....will win. It stats were such a deciding factor, NE would be playing MIN on Sunday.
Exactly my point. There's too many other factors and variants to look at to make a good judgement. And you know crazy shit could always happen making all the stats and analysis all meaningless like some fluke play.
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Quote Originally Posted by WHATTAPLAY:
Guys, this is the PLAYOFFS.None of that meaningless data matters. Just like it matters little during the regular season...it matters much LESS now.Whomever the shield wants.....will win. It stats were such a deciding factor, NE would be playing MIN on Sunday.
Exactly my point. There's too many other factors and variants to look at to make a good judgement. And you know crazy shit could always happen making all the stats and analysis all meaningless like some fluke play.
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