New to the forum, but been sports betting for a while and was hoping for some advice from the sage experts here.
HEDGE ADVICE 1:
At the start of this NFL season I put on a 'season total wins' parlay at 19 to 1 odds. It's obviously a lot of money if it gets up and all legs are home except the Bengals over 6.5 wins. This one hurts, because they were 5 wins after 7 weeks... Anyway, they're currently on 6 wins and unlikely to beat the Steelers, so is there a smarter way to hedge than simply betting the Steelers at really short odds?
HEDGE ADVICE 2:
This one is harder. After the Colts lost the first few games, I put money on them to win the AFC South at 20 to 1 odds. A few Texans losses would have seen a nice pay day, but unfortunately they kept winning. If the Texans lose to the Jags and the Colts beat the Titans, it'll cash, but is there any smart way to hedge this?
Any advice gratefully received. I look forward to contributing to the forum and learning from you guys. :)
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Hi guys,
New to the forum, but been sports betting for a while and was hoping for some advice from the sage experts here.
HEDGE ADVICE 1:
At the start of this NFL season I put on a 'season total wins' parlay at 19 to 1 odds. It's obviously a lot of money if it gets up and all legs are home except the Bengals over 6.5 wins. This one hurts, because they were 5 wins after 7 weeks... Anyway, they're currently on 6 wins and unlikely to beat the Steelers, so is there a smarter way to hedge than simply betting the Steelers at really short odds?
HEDGE ADVICE 2:
This one is harder. After the Colts lost the first few games, I put money on them to win the AFC South at 20 to 1 odds. A few Texans losses would have seen a nice pay day, but unfortunately they kept winning. If the Texans lose to the Jags and the Colts beat the Titans, it'll cash, but is there any smart way to hedge this?
Any advice gratefully received. I look forward to contributing to the forum and learning from you guys. :)
First thing to think about in hedging a futures wager in my opinion: is the potential win “life changing money”....if yes then attempt to take some payback....if no then you made the wager originally thinking it would win so let it ride.
If you don’t want to adhere to the above philosophy then discussing wager amounts comes into play. How much is your 19-1 season win total parlay currently worth, and how much additional risk are you willing to take to “guarantee” a profit. For example a $100 wager that pays $1900 currently has a 13.3% chance of winning and an 87.7% chance of losing. A touch over double the implied odds of your original wager. Your only play is Steelers ML at -1000 in this scenario and you would need to add an additional $1000 of risk just to have a chance at your original wager back ($1100 total risked if Steelers win and $100 in return, but if Steelers lose you return $800 off of $1100 risked. If you decided to lay $2000 on Steelers ML you could potentially end up with $100 profit or -$200) no real “pure hedge” opportunity unfortunately unless you just want to play to get your original wager back.
Same scenario X2 at different odds on your second question although needing to hit 2 games on the ML wouldn’t be a hedge at all its a completely separate wager.
Let em ride and hope 1 hits would be my advice...and if you want a further breakdown Im happy to oblige...a few nears misses got you in this position, maybe one more can cash a ticket.
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First thing to think about in hedging a futures wager in my opinion: is the potential win “life changing money”....if yes then attempt to take some payback....if no then you made the wager originally thinking it would win so let it ride.
If you don’t want to adhere to the above philosophy then discussing wager amounts comes into play. How much is your 19-1 season win total parlay currently worth, and how much additional risk are you willing to take to “guarantee” a profit. For example a $100 wager that pays $1900 currently has a 13.3% chance of winning and an 87.7% chance of losing. A touch over double the implied odds of your original wager. Your only play is Steelers ML at -1000 in this scenario and you would need to add an additional $1000 of risk just to have a chance at your original wager back ($1100 total risked if Steelers win and $100 in return, but if Steelers lose you return $800 off of $1100 risked. If you decided to lay $2000 on Steelers ML you could potentially end up with $100 profit or -$200) no real “pure hedge” opportunity unfortunately unless you just want to play to get your original wager back.
Same scenario X2 at different odds on your second question although needing to hit 2 games on the ML wouldn’t be a hedge at all its a completely separate wager.
Let em ride and hope 1 hits would be my advice...and if you want a further breakdown Im happy to oblige...a few nears misses got you in this position, maybe one more can cash a ticket.
First thing to think about in hedging a futures wager in my opinion: is the potential win “life changing money”....if yes then attempt to take some payback....if no then you made the wager originally thinking it would win so let it ride.
If you don’t want to adhere to the above philosophy then discussing wager amounts comes into play. How much is your 19-1 season win total parlay currently worth, and how much additional risk are you willing to take to “guarantee” a profit. For example a $100 wager that pays $1900 currently has a 13.3% chance of winning and an 87.7% chance of losing. A touch over double the implied odds of your original wager. Your only play is Steelers ML at -1000 in this scenario and you would need to add an additional $1000 of risk just to have a chance at your original wager back ($1100 total risked if Steelers win and $100 in return, but if Steelers lose you return $800 off of $1100 risked. If you decided to lay $2000 on Steelers ML you could potentially end up with $100 profit or -$200) no real “pure hedge” opportunity unfortunately unless you just want to play to get your original wager back.
Same scenario X2 at different odds on your second question although needing to hit 2 games on the ML wouldn’t be a hedge at all its a completely separate wager.
Let em ride and hope 1 hits would be my advice...and if you want a further breakdown Im happy to oblige...a few nears misses got you in this position, maybe one more can cash a ticket.
Thanks for taking the time to reply, freestylin :)
I've got $100 wagered on the first scenario @19.12 = 1912 bucks if it cashes.
I've got $165 wagered on the second scenario @ 15.57 = 2404 bucks if it cashes. (apologies, I said 20 to 1 in the opening post, but when I double checked it was actually these odds).
Letting it ride is still an option and even if both lose I've had a profitable season, but I just wanted to understand my options with the help of some more experienced sports bettors.
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Quote Originally Posted by freestlyin:
First thing to think about in hedging a futures wager in my opinion: is the potential win “life changing money”....if yes then attempt to take some payback....if no then you made the wager originally thinking it would win so let it ride.
If you don’t want to adhere to the above philosophy then discussing wager amounts comes into play. How much is your 19-1 season win total parlay currently worth, and how much additional risk are you willing to take to “guarantee” a profit. For example a $100 wager that pays $1900 currently has a 13.3% chance of winning and an 87.7% chance of losing. A touch over double the implied odds of your original wager. Your only play is Steelers ML at -1000 in this scenario and you would need to add an additional $1000 of risk just to have a chance at your original wager back ($1100 total risked if Steelers win and $100 in return, but if Steelers lose you return $800 off of $1100 risked. If you decided to lay $2000 on Steelers ML you could potentially end up with $100 profit or -$200) no real “pure hedge” opportunity unfortunately unless you just want to play to get your original wager back.
Same scenario X2 at different odds on your second question although needing to hit 2 games on the ML wouldn’t be a hedge at all its a completely separate wager.
Let em ride and hope 1 hits would be my advice...and if you want a further breakdown Im happy to oblige...a few nears misses got you in this position, maybe one more can cash a ticket.
Thanks for taking the time to reply, freestylin :)
I've got $100 wagered on the first scenario @19.12 = 1912 bucks if it cashes.
I've got $165 wagered on the second scenario @ 15.57 = 2404 bucks if it cashes. (apologies, I said 20 to 1 in the opening post, but when I double checked it was actually these odds).
Letting it ride is still an option and even if both lose I've had a profitable season, but I just wanted to understand my options with the help of some more experienced sports bettors.
Thanks for taking the time to reply, freestylin :)
I've got $100 wagered on the first scenario @19.12 = 1912 bucks if it cashes.
I've got $165 wagered on the second scenario @ 15.57 = 2404 bucks if it cashes. (apologies, I said 20 to 1 in the opening post, but when I double checked it was actually these odds).
Letting it ride is still an option and even if both lose I've had a profitable season, but I just wanted to understand my options with the help of some more experienced sports bettors.
In my opinion the first wager is impossible to hedge given the odds for the Steelers to win the game SU...you made the parlay thinking at some point the Bengals would win 7 games and it just hasn’t fallen your way, to even have a chance at cashing it fortunate.
The second wager would again require additional risk for the potential of securing some (less than the full payout) of money in return. I don’t see any Colts/Titans odds posted anywhere just yet but regardless it wouldn’t be a hedge given that 2 scenarios must occur. You would need to make a completely separate wager on Jacksonville ML (additional risk for a change at a hedge). If that wins then you win that individual wager and give yourself a chance to either attempt a hedge on what I would assume will be a slight underdog Titans team or win your original wager on Colts to win the division. Given that this has been flexed to SNF I have a sneaky suspicion a true line won’t be posted until late late this week and it will probably be something close to a PK to give books the opportunity to avoid hedges on your exact wager should Jacksonville beat Houston.
Let em ride and hope 1 hits would be my advice...$265 after having a great season should affect how you sleep at night. While it seems you are in a good position you truly aren’t in any great shape on either wager.
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Quote Originally Posted by Deathace:
Thanks for taking the time to reply, freestylin :)
I've got $100 wagered on the first scenario @19.12 = 1912 bucks if it cashes.
I've got $165 wagered on the second scenario @ 15.57 = 2404 bucks if it cashes. (apologies, I said 20 to 1 in the opening post, but when I double checked it was actually these odds).
Letting it ride is still an option and even if both lose I've had a profitable season, but I just wanted to understand my options with the help of some more experienced sports bettors.
In my opinion the first wager is impossible to hedge given the odds for the Steelers to win the game SU...you made the parlay thinking at some point the Bengals would win 7 games and it just hasn’t fallen your way, to even have a chance at cashing it fortunate.
The second wager would again require additional risk for the potential of securing some (less than the full payout) of money in return. I don’t see any Colts/Titans odds posted anywhere just yet but regardless it wouldn’t be a hedge given that 2 scenarios must occur. You would need to make a completely separate wager on Jacksonville ML (additional risk for a change at a hedge). If that wins then you win that individual wager and give yourself a chance to either attempt a hedge on what I would assume will be a slight underdog Titans team or win your original wager on Colts to win the division. Given that this has been flexed to SNF I have a sneaky suspicion a true line won’t be posted until late late this week and it will probably be something close to a PK to give books the opportunity to avoid hedges on your exact wager should Jacksonville beat Houston.
Let em ride and hope 1 hits would be my advice...$265 after having a great season should affect how you sleep at night. While it seems you are in a good position you truly aren’t in any great shape on either wager.
Thanks for taking the time to reply, freestylin :)
I've got $100 wagered on the first scenario @19.12 = 1912 bucks if it cashes.
I've got $165 wagered on the second scenario @ 15.57 = 2404 bucks if it cashes. (apologies, I said 20 to 1 in the opening post, but when I double checked it was actually these odds).
Letting it ride is still an option and even if both lose I've had a profitable season, but I just wanted to understand my options with the help of some more experienced sports bettors.
1st Scenario - Either let it ride or guarantee yourself ~$100 in profit betting PIT ML using the hedge calculator.
2nd Scenario - I'm in the same boat as you and you can hedge this because the colts game is SNF.
Depending on your thinking...an example on the very left of the spectrum (if you are confident the Jags could win but want to hedge) - you could bet Texans ML $495 to win $165.
IF Texans win... profit = $0
IF Texans lose... your future bet placed turns into a straight Colts ML ticket at $165 to win $2239
From here you could use the hedge calculator to guarantee profit of ~$1,200.
I will be choosing to be on the opposite side of the spectrum and am expecting a Texans win so I will be betting a large sum on Texans ML... and then if that loses leaving just enough wiggle room to breakeven with a TEN ML ticket.
Let me know if you have questions - I am using https://www.bobbybucks.com/hedge_calculator.php as my calculator.
0
Quote Originally Posted by Deathace:
Thanks for taking the time to reply, freestylin :)
I've got $100 wagered on the first scenario @19.12 = 1912 bucks if it cashes.
I've got $165 wagered on the second scenario @ 15.57 = 2404 bucks if it cashes. (apologies, I said 20 to 1 in the opening post, but when I double checked it was actually these odds).
Letting it ride is still an option and even if both lose I've had a profitable season, but I just wanted to understand my options with the help of some more experienced sports bettors.
1st Scenario - Either let it ride or guarantee yourself ~$100 in profit betting PIT ML using the hedge calculator.
2nd Scenario - I'm in the same boat as you and you can hedge this because the colts game is SNF.
Depending on your thinking...an example on the very left of the spectrum (if you are confident the Jags could win but want to hedge) - you could bet Texans ML $495 to win $165.
IF Texans win... profit = $0
IF Texans lose... your future bet placed turns into a straight Colts ML ticket at $165 to win $2239
From here you could use the hedge calculator to guarantee profit of ~$1,200.
I will be choosing to be on the opposite side of the spectrum and am expecting a Texans win so I will be betting a large sum on Texans ML... and then if that loses leaving just enough wiggle room to breakeven with a TEN ML ticket.
Let me know if you have questions - I am using https://www.bobbybucks.com/hedge_calculator.php as my calculator.
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