Posted:
#1
took Colts before playoffs on a futures bet for $600 at 35/1 ($21,000) to win the SB; if they made it to the SB, I would hedge. Now that they're set to play NE, I see NE is +350 to win the AFC championship. here is what I'm thinking
Scenario 1: Colts make SB, I hedge, guaranteed money. Let's say it's against Seattle worst matchup possible from a ML perspective, I'm guessing it would be -300. I would hedge Seattle risking $9000 to win $3000. Sea wins $2400 (minus the $600 futures bet) or Colts win $12,000 (minus the $9000 on Seattle). Any other team matchup and I end up making more as the odds will be more in my favor.
Scenario 2: Take NE to win AFC risking $400 (+350) to win $1400. If NE wins and faces Denver, I'm projecting Denver would be about -4 @ -200 ML (given that NE was -1 at home when they last played). In this scenario, I would play NE for $300 as well, thus coming up on the +350/-200 difference and collecting $600 and cancelling out my Colts futures bet.
Am I missing any other factors? Sounds like a no-brainer to put $400 on NE to win the AFC championship and thus making my Colts play a free play, no?
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