I need answers to two questions...

All the talk today has been about all the line movement in the Cleveland Pittsburgh game, and rightfully so as the only game on the board. But it’s also left me with 2 glaring questions, so...

1.  The line has moved from Cle -3 to +2.5...a 5.5 point move. And the only two angles for this I’ve heard have been “it’s Big Ben’s last home game”, and “Cleveland has nothing to play for anymore”. Next week the Browns are -3 favorites over the Bengals, yet they still will have nothing to play for. 

Maybe Cincy rests a player or two however they still have very much to play for in terms of seeding. You could even throw in the revenge angle from when Cleveland smashed them 41-16 earlier in the season. The Bengals have clearly shown over the course of the year they are the better team. 

So if the Browns have nothing to play for this week and nothing to play for next week either, how do these lines make any sense?

Question #2 is...

Most of the time I see people on here dithering over a half a point here or a half a point there as if it’s the life or death factor between a pick being a no-play or max unit bet. And people also paying a 15-20% premium to buy that half point or point to be super “sharp” and get the perfect number they want.

But today we’ve had a 5.5 point line movement and I see so many threads where people who liked Pittsburgh early at +3 are still loving it now at -2.5 without a care in the world. Hell, maybe even double down! 

So if 99% of the time a 0.5 half point is the razor thin margin between liking side A or side B, why now with a 5.5 point shift people couldn’t give two fukks about it?

@dcp1985

 Back up QB Cle always better than Cincy's QB .

Burrow will not play next week !

@dcp1985

 Cle -3 vs LV after that Cle+3 Vs LV

Final 16-14 LV won !

Game day it would professional money moving a line so that's a clue.  These heavy hitters probably know something is amiss in the Cleveland room with regards to player status for tonight.

As for next week; Burrow will sit so that's going to drive the line the most.  Chase has broken the records so he may only play a sparingly.  Think of next weeks game as a pre-season type game where the line means very little.

Look who the Titans and Chiefs play next week, Cincy will not move up and they have a home playoff game to start.  There is no way in any known universe that Cincy will consider fielding a full line up to get a particular opponent; they've achieved what they set out to do at the start of the year.

@jamesboron

 Are we 100% Burrow sitting out next week? Bengals still playing for seeding and having home field at least for the 1st playoff week.

@dcp1985

 The coach will be fired if he put Burrow plays next week.

You watch his ankel   yesterday?

@jamesboron

 In all fairness to that Raiders game, that game was probably the biggest covid shiit mess of the year...postponed multiple times and Cleveland having to bring in guys off the street just to field a roster. 

I haven’t heard a peep about anything like that for tonight’s game unless they spring it all last minute.

@dcp1985

 For #2...it is 2 different situations, because new information came out to move the line.  You don't want to bet a bad line out of laziness.  But if the QB gets COVID and the line is +6 and they take the line down and open it back up at pick, you would still bet it at pick even though it is a bad line, because of the new info.   

@thorpe

 That’s what I mean though...I haven’t seen any new info about big time players being out with covid. Everyone knew this was Big Ben’s last home game months ago. And everyone knew both these teams were likely on the outside looking in for the playoffs before the original line came out. So what’s moved it?

Hey dcp,

People "couldn't give two fukks" because most bettors don't think the game will end with a PIT win and a CLE back door cover.  Half a point is as thin a margin as you can get, true...but most times the sharps aren't winning with a back door cover...that's for us average joes who take the dogs.  Sharps avoid the spread whenever possible to avoid refs bad calls and missed FGs and dropped TD passes.  Sharps prefer the ML and think they have the better team.

This is a once-in-a-lifetime game at Heinz Field for the Steelers faithful.  Ben's only retiring once.  They can take their kids and family, and themselves, and say they were there to see it.  This is big stuff.  Just like when Bradshaw played his last game...and all the Steeler HOF greats did the same; it's NFL history.  Nobody's dikking around over the half-point...certainly not the sharps and not us, either.

Cheers, bud

Cinn would need a miracle or two to improve their current playoff situation. They will most likely rest stars

15% of NGL games land on 3, that’s huge

It's public money moving the line.  Everyone has heard Cleveland has nothing to play for and its Ben's last game, so the buy the shit out of Pitt.

Do this, Google the Browns beat writers and read the article they posted.  At least one Brown has something to play for.

The most important point nobody in this thread has mentioned, Pittsburgh is still alive in the Playoffs, which is a huge incentive.

If Pitt wins this week and next week against the Ravens and the Colts lose their last game, Pittsburgh makes the playoffs.  That is why the line swung so much, because Cleveland got eliminated yesterday, when Cinci beat KC and Pittsburgh is still alive.  NOBODY is betting on Pittsburgh because it is Ben's last game.

BOL!!!!

I may no know much but if cleve is so out of it and its bens last home game, why only3 ? I think cleve covers and possibly wins. Besides green bay last night, vegas isnt gonna give another one away. Like i said, i think cleve wins. Best of luck you guys!

Steelers' O line still plays like Swiss cheese looks, regardless of whether it's Ben's last game.

@In2it

 Yes I never mentioned it and I get it, but there’s still a huge difference between  “mathematically” being alive for the playoffs, and actually being alive for the playoffs.

Pitt has to win out both games, probably a pick’em at best for each so that’s maybe a 25% shot. AND the Colts have to lose to the Jags...maybe a 5% chance. So we’re actually looking at just over a 1% chance that Pitt makes the playoffs. So technically yes they still have something to play for, but you can’t tell me that every single player in that Steelers room knows they have no chance it’s just a matter of when.

@dcp1985

 Again.  Public perception.  The public is not bright and there are a whole lot of them.