7/9/2009
DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
A LOOK AT REGULAR SEASON WIN PROPS IN THE AFC
I want to spend the next few days talking about what the sharps are thinking about Regular Season Win propositions that are currently bettable in Las Vegas and offshore.
Even in the heart of summer, bettors are thinking about football!
Today I'm going to run the latest numbers for the AFC, home of the Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers, and where all the buzz is centering right now on Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. I'll come back Saturday morning with a look at the NFC, where the power teams in the East are trying to figure out how to keep somebody like Arizona from going back to the Super Bowl!
If you're not familiar with these type of bets, they're very simple. Sportsbooks post an Over/Under number for victories...a number like 7½ or 8½...and bettors take their shots at whether a team will win more or less than that number. If action comes in heavily on one side, sportsbooks may lift the total by a half a win or a win...or they may charge bigger vigorish. For example...a lot of people bet the Jets to go Over 7 wins, so some places are charging as high as -160 on the moneyline if you want to get on that bandwagon. It's +140 on the return if you want to take the Jets Under 7 wins at some shops.
Simple enough. Just like Over/Unders in all other sports. The difference here is that you put your money down in June, July, or August...and you don't get paid until January! If you can handle a sportsbook holding your money for that long without paying you any interest, then these props may be just for you. I can tell you that Vegas sharps play A LOT of these because they believe the edges are so big (particularly against the openers). To them, their edge is bigger than the interest they'd make if the money was sitting in a bank, or even if they were just using their money for daily baseball bets.
SHARPS LOVE REGULAR SEASON WIN BETS!
Let's go division by division in the AFC today. We'll look at the NFC in the article that runs Saturday morning through the weekend.
AFC EAST
New England: 11½
Buffalo: 7½ or 8
NY Jets: 7 or 7½
Miami: 7
Sharps hit Buffalo Under 8, which is why you see extra vigorish in places on the Under at that number, or 7½ for the total at other places. Those numbers may strike you as a little low considering how well this division played last year. Note that Miami and New England both finished 11-5 (Miami won the tie-breaker and the playoff spot). The Jets were 9-7. Buffalo was 7-9. Why would a group that won 38 games in 2008 only be projected for about 33 or so in 2009?
The schedule strengths are going to be much tougher! This group had a very easy schedule in 2008. The reviews I've seen have them playing four of the easiest eight schedules in the whole league. This season, the AFC East has to play the AFC South (Indianapolis, Tennessee, Jacksonville, and Houston) along with the NFC South (Carolina, Atlanta, New Orleans, and Tampa Bay).
Let's also remember that Brett Favre played well for the Jets until his shoulder went out. They may have trouble reaching that level of performance with a new head coach and a new starting quarterback.
So, even though Tom Brady is back in the lineup, and New England may be back in championship form, the AFC East is expected to be a weak division in the minds of sharps. They expect a big drop off for Miami, and maybe for everyone besides New England. I think you'll see that in early season game lines too. Be sure your power ratings are in line with the sharp thought process here.
AFC NORTH
Pittsburgh: 10½
Baltimore: 8½ or 9
Cleveland: 6½ or 7
Cincinnati: 6½
You might be surprised that Pittsburgh is so low. They won the Super Bowl last year after a 12-4 regular season campaign. They return all the key talent. Why would the projection be for just 10½ wins?
The public will probably be betting that Over. Sometimes good teams do go Over their double digit numbers. Sharps generally bet more Unders than Overs (as most winning bettors do), and are skeptical about the ability to repeat. Remember how everyone thought New England would have another great year last season. Injuries happen. Bad luck happens. Sharps figure Pittsburgh is likely to regress to the mean in terms of luck. So, that 10½ has stayed where it opened.
The most betting interest here as been on Baltimore going Over 8½. The vigorish is now very high if you still see an 8½ out there. The Ravens went 11-5 last year with a rookie quarterback who's likely to get better. Super Bowl teams often regress to the mean, but the near-miss teams are prone to break through. Sharps thought the market opened Baltimore at way too low a number and bet accordingly.
What about Cleveland and Cincinnati? Both those franchises are a mess right now. Cleveland has a new coach but uncertainty at quarterback. Cincinnati didn't change coaches even though many of us expected they would. Both teams only won four games last year. Can either or both make a run at .500 this season? Remember they have four games against Pittsburgh and Baltimore. A lot of sharps hit Cleveland Under 7 when it opened. I was surprised myself that a 4-12 team had 7 for their opening number. Looks like Eric Mangini was seen as an upgrade over Romeo Crennel by oddsmakers.
A lot of the numbers you see today will strike you as being lower than you had expected. Don't division winners usually get to about 12 victories? Tennessee was 13-3 last year, while Indianapolis was 12-4. Why are their numbers 10 and 9 this year? Why was 12-4 Pittsburgh posted at just 10½ wins in this proposition?
In the past, oddsmakers used to post higher numbers. Sharps pounded the Unders...and sharps WON! Oddsmakers are playing defense these days. They'll let squares take some shots on the big name teams figuring that injuries and competitive balance will work out in the sportsbooks favor over the long haul. When squares win, they win a little. When sharps win, they win a lot! Oddsmakers are trying to keep sharps from winning a lot. Since sharps favor Unders, many of these totals will seem low to you.
Early action I've been monitoring shows some affection for Tennessee at that number. They did have the best regular season record at 13-3, while playing in a tough division. It's not like they were a pretender in the way that somebody like Miami was. Sharp money has created a vig of -130 on Over 9 in some places.
I'm also seeing Under bets for Houston at 8½. That's a team that can make a run at .500 most years, but hasn't yet proven they can get over the hump and make the playoffs.
AFC WEST
San Diego: 9½ or 10
Denver: 7
Oakland 5½ or 6
Kansas City: 5½ or 6
I know a lot of sharps were surprised last year at how bad this division got. You may have forgotten that 8-8 was good enough for first place!
Denver fired its coach and traded its quarterback. Kansas City fired its coach and traded for a new quarterback. Oakland fired its coach early last season. Only San Diego has stability, but injuries and a lack of intensity led to underachievement in 2008.
Sharps tend to be conservative when changes are made. You don't want to tie up your money for six months only to find out that a new coach inspired a big surprise (either good or bad). Sharps like to be reasonably sure of their value when making a bet. That's why I'm not seeing much betting interest yet in this group.
Quick Notes:
Miami: 4 games (an 11-5 team with a projection of 7)
Tennessee: 4 games (a 13-3 team with a projection of 9)
Kansas City: 4 games (a 2-14 team with a projection of 6)
Jacksonville: 3 games (a 5-11 team with a projection of 8)
7/11/2009
DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
CONTINUING OUR LOOK AT
REGULAR SEASON WINS WITH THE NFC
Earlier this week, I posted the Regular Season Win totals for AFC teams that are available right now in Las Vegas and offshore. As promised, I'm back today to look at the NFC.
The NFC has a very interesting cluster of divisions that can create some illusions for handicappers. The East division is very tough, with four good teams who will be beating up on each other all year. The South is very close, though Tampa Bay is expected to fall off the pace in 2009. That's creates a condensed set of numbers where everyone's projected in the 8-10 range even though they're expected to be very good.
The North and West divisions are weaker, but also competitive. As a result, THOSE teams are largely projected in the same range. If you had matchups on neutral fields between the divisions (say...the whole NFC East playing the whole NFC North), the East teams would be favored across the board. Yet, the nature of their schedule shapes make the league seem more condensed than that.
Oh, within the NFC this year, the East plays the South! So, the best divisions will play each other, making it even tougher for the 'true' powers of the conference to make a run at 11 or 12 victories. Last season only the Giants, Carolina, and Atlanta made it as high as 11 wins, and the best divisions weren't playing each other.
With that in mind, let's run through the four remaining divisions in our trip across the league this week...
NFC EAST
NY Giants: 9.5 or 10
Philadelphia: 9.5 or 10
Dallas: 9 or 9.5
Washington: 8 or 8.5
Nobody was under .500 last year in this group, and oddsmakers have priced everyone within striking distance of that range again in 2009. What a great division! The Giants have won a recent Super Bowl. Philadelphia just missed last year. Dallas is usually seen as one of the best teams in the conference even though it's been awhile since they played to that level. Washington should get more respect from the national media given how well they've held up their end of the bargain in this very tough group.
Most of the sharp action I've seen has been on the Giants Under 10, and Philadelphia Over 9.5. The 'value of a win' is so high within the likely strike zone that many sharps are just betting toward the whole number with those teams.
I was also seeing pessimism about Washington at 8.5. The vigorish is high on the Under at stores that are still carrying that number.
It's too bad so many good teams are clustered in two divisions. In my view that helped set the stage for Arizona's surprising run last year. They were so much fresher in January because they hadn't played grueling divisional wars throughout the season.
NFC NORTH
Chicago: 8.5 or 9
Minnesota: 8.5
Green Bay: 8.5
Detroit: 4.5
The quality may not be here, but we're still looking at a very interesting race. Chicago got bet by sharps after they acquired Jay Cutler from Denver. The Bears were always seen as 'being a quarterback away' from having a top notch team. Cutler has a great arm (if not great composure and maturity), and was seen as an upgrade. There hasn't been much betting action on these teams other than the Bears thus far.
Detroit's an interesting case because they were winless last year and have cleaned house. An 'expansion' team would have trouble reaching 5 wins. Will Detroit be an expansion caliber team this year? Maybe with the dead weight gone from management the team will bounce back quicker than expected.
Oh, I thought it worth noting that none of these teams had a winning record against the spread last year. Minnesota was 10-6 straight up but 6-10 ATS. It's possible to better expectations against season win totals while failing to even reach them on a game by game basis.
NFC SOUTH
New Orleans: 9
Carolina: 8.5
Atlanta: 8.5
Tampa Bay: 6.5
Conversely, nobody in the NFC South had a losing record against the spread last year! This stuff can get tricky. If you think a team is going to be underrated, so you bet their season win total Over, or do you bet them against the weekly numbers every Sunday? To each his own. To me, they're different issues. One takes a big picture look at overall potential. The other can be influenced by injuries, letdowns, lookaheads, and a tendency for the public to ignore developments during the regular season.
Did you realize that New Orleans finished last in 2008? Now they're projected to finish first! This is more a case of oddsmakers knowing that the public would probably try to bet New Orleans. Drew Brees gets a lot of hype because of his big passing numbers. And, the Saints were 10-5-1 ATS last season. Gamblers have a good taste in their mouth for the Saints, so their total is a bit higher than the others.
Tampa Bay made a coaching change, and has the look of a team in turmoil. In a tough division, that can turn 3-3 into 0-6 at the drop of a hat. Throw in those matchups against the NFC East, and you can see why the Bucs fell so far. They were 9-7 last year, but are now seen as a potential 6-10 or 7-9 type team. Sharps were looking to bet Under, but oddsmakers nullified that to a large degree by posting such a low total.
NFC WEST
Arizona: 8.5
Seattle: 8.5
San Francisco: 7 or 7.5
St. Louis: 5.5 or 6
San Francisco was hit hard at Over 7 by sharps who saw that number. The vigorish is high if you still see that number posted anywhere. Sharps have a lot of respect for what Mike Singletary brought to the table in the weak West. Toughness is just want was needed to make the 49ers competitive again.
Seattle is an interesting case. They don't have Mike Holmgren any more as head coach. Jim Mora is the replacement. He's not seen as a great coach...but this isn't a great division either! Seattle will be healthy this year, meaning there's a good chance they get back in the playoff mix. Oddsmakers anticipated that to a degree with a number like 8.5. Remember the Seahawks were just 4-12 last year because of all the injuries.
Can Arizona make another run at history? I can't say that people are lined up to bet Over 8.5, which is odd for a Super Bowl team! It's true that last year was a bit flukey. But, Kurt Warner is a great quarterback when he has time. Given the friendlier rules for offensive lineman last year in the area of holding, Warner is fully capable of having another big season if he stays healthy. You might be surprised that the prior Super Bowl teams were actually bargains for bettors last season. The Giants passed their season win total with a 12-4 mark, and were also a whopping 12-4 against the number (best in the league along with Tennessee). New England was 11-5 even with Tom Brady missing the year, and went 9-7 ATS. Maybe Arizona will be the steal of the year in 2009!
Some quick notes:
*Three NFC teams were 5-11 or worse last year, yet only Detroit is priced at a number of five or lower this year. If your analysis sees a potential disaster coming for one or more franchises, you may have a pretty good sized margin for error.
*Three NFC teams were 11-5 or better last year, but only one team is priced at 10 wins or more right now. Both of those numbers are much lower than in the AFC. The NFC is seen as a much deeper conference where it's difficult to post a really great record.
*Biggest differences between 2008 final record and 2009 market projection:
Detroit: 4.5 games (an 0-16 team with a projection of 4.5)
Carolina: 3.5 games (a 12-4 team with an 8.5 projection)
Seattle: 3.5 games (a 4-12 team with a 7.5 projection)
St. Louis: 3.5 games (a 2-14 team with a 5.5 projection)
We've now gone through regular season win totals for all 32 teams, all eight divisions in the NFL. Exhibition football is about a month away. I know we're all looking forward to that! Nothing beats the excitement around Las Vegas and Reno when a new football season is about to start.
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