IH8ColdWeather NFL Week 2

Week 1: 1-4 

Jets -3 (-135) 

Colts -2.5 (-110)

Lions -1/Texans PK (-120)

Lets discuss....

NY Jets -3.5 at Tennessee Titans

Aaron Rodgers has never started his career 0-2

After a SU loss, Rodgers he is 63% ATS

This is a bad spot for the Jets in that they are coming off a MNF loss, short week, traveled back to NY from SF and now travel to Tennessee AND have the patriots on deck next week on Thursday (3 games in 10 days)

Jets looked like they could be run on last week. Their interior DL looks like a concern because teams are double teaming Quinnen Williams. The Jets are really missing John Franklin Myers and Bryce Huff and it showed against the 49ers

If there is one thing that the Titans did well last week, especially in the first half, was run the ball against a decent bears defense. Titans OL coach Bill Callahan is the O-line coach for the Titans and he will try to exploit the jets defense on the ground. This is my main concern with backing the Jets in this spot, as the Jets looked like they could be exploited on the ground last week against SF.

Titans defense did not give up an offensive TD last week, are they that good, or was Caleb Williams that bad?

Last 9 starts for Will Levis, he is 2-7 SU with a 57% completion percentage, 5-6 TD/INT ratio and 74.4 QBR

He makes too many mistakes. He looks rattled at times when he is in the pocket. Poor decisions, inconsistent, and still playing like a rookie despite being the second year man

If the Jets can get out to a lead, they will be able to put more pressure on Levis in obvious passing situations. The Titans offensive like looked abysmal last week and Levis was pressured the entire game by the Bears front four. If the Jets can do the same and he Levis starts moving or trying to improvise in the pocket, I could see him being good for at least one interception against this Jets defense.

This is more of a fade spot against Levis than it is going against the Jets. I would say that with the Jets expectations on this season, Rodgers coming back, the team knows they can't start the season out 0-2 and I look for them to show up in this spot.

Indianapolis Colts -2.5 at GB Packers

The look ahead line was Packers -5 if Jordan Love was playing. The current line at most placed is Colts -3. That is an 8 point adjustment! There are only a few players that can make that kind of a point move with the point spread, across the key number of 3 and 4. That is like going from Andrew Luck to Scott Tolzein, Aaron Rodgers to Tim Boyle, Patrick Mahomes to Blaine Gabbert. Should the Jordan Love to Malik Willis move the line 8 points?

• Malik Willis, for his career, has a completion percentage of 52%, 0 TD, 3 interceptions on 67 pass attempts
• On 67 pass attempts, he has taken 15 sacks….holds on to the ball too long
• In College, when he played a formidable opponent at liberty like the Ole Miss game, 0 TD 3 INT

• Colts placed their top corner JuJu Brents on IR
• Colts starting safety Julian Blackmon will be out for the game
• Kwity Paye and Deforest Buckner are both listed as questionable for this game

Missing your top corner, starting safety, and having your top two defensive lineman potentially be out is big for an already sub-par defense with a below average secondary and basic scheme 

Gus Bradley runs a bunch of cover 3, very little blitzing was torched last week by the Texans

On the other hand the Packers defense is above average in the secondary with Jiare Alexander, Xavier McKinney and Erik Stokes.

Like the Levis situation, this is a fade spot on Malik Willis. QB play is so integral to the NFL and handicapping. Matt Lafluer is an incredible coach, and excellent offensive coordinator and he can scheme around Willis deficiencies to some degree, but I think it will be too much for the kid to overcome, especially since he didn't even start training camp with the Colts and was just traded to them 3 weeks ago...

I bough the hook on the Jets game for anyone who is wonder about the 135 juice

Best of luck today!

@mrusso

NO Saints at Dallas Cowboys -6 - pass on this game for me

Cowboys are notoriously very good at home as large favorites under McCarthy and Dak Prescott, they will jump out to a lead and then play very aggressive defense. Derek Carr has been subpar when facing pressure, and Dallas, for what they lack on defense against the running game, has speed and can get to the QB in obvious passing situations.

Dak as a favorite of 6 or more points is 31-13-1 ATS since 2021 - the second best record in the NFL behind Jared Goff

Dennis Allen is 5-16-2 ATS after a win

Saints have Lattimore and Matheau are both questionable and didn’t practice yesterday

This would be a big loss being without your best corner and safety

Oh and C-70Blues....do me a favor and stay out of my thread you clown.

Followed on Indy. Liked your analysis. Was logical, concise, good stats.. made sense to me.

But as they say "On Any Given Sunday"..

Still appreciate the effort though.

Keep positive.. your luck will turn.