What is up my covers brothers. I had a few days off this week so I went back from week 1 and rewatched several of the games, updated my power rankings, looked at the look ahead line for next week, and updated my notes based on the game film and box score. Admittedly, this is a tough week to cap. Not much that I really like and several games that I am most definitely fading. The above card is my official card and I may make a play on the Chargers based on line movement and a trend that I like. Nothing official yet
Colts at Jaguars
The Colts are the best bet this week in my opinion. They have one of the top defensive line units in the NFL, especially against the run. The first time they played the Jags in week 1, they stopped multiple 4th and 1 and short yardage plays to the point where Jax went to the quick passing game. The Colts were beating the Jags 21-17 at the end of the 3rd in that game and the game *should* have ended 24-21. The defense was gassed and on one of the last drives allowed a long conversion on 3rd and 12 that led to a score to put the Jaguars up 24-21. Then, the colts gave up a garbage TD where Travis Etienne had a long TD run due to a missed tackle at the end of the game that made the score 31-21. Despite these two scores, at the end of the game, the Colts still drove down the field with Minshew and had a chance to score at the end on 4th down as time was expiring. The opening line was Jaguars -5.5 and the line is sitting at Jaguars -3.5 at most books. This is due to a ton of sharp money coming in on the Colts. The Jaguars seem to be favored by the public after going 2-0 during their European road trip and beating the Falcons and the Bills. Traveling back to Europe, and with their 37-17 loss to the Texans as a distant memory, why wouldn't the public back the Jaguars against the Colts and their backup QB? This just screams let down spot in a divisional matchup. This game really should come down to a field goal either way and I see tremendous value in backing the Colts at any number 4 or above.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
YTD: 11-6-1 (ATS, ML, Teasers), + 15.5 units
WEEK 6 CARD:
Colts +4 (-105) - 4 units
Titans +5 (-110) - 2 units
NO Saints -1.5 (-110) - 2 units
What is up my covers brothers. I had a few days off this week so I went back from week 1 and rewatched several of the games, updated my power rankings, looked at the look ahead line for next week, and updated my notes based on the game film and box score. Admittedly, this is a tough week to cap. Not much that I really like and several games that I am most definitely fading. The above card is my official card and I may make a play on the Chargers based on line movement and a trend that I like. Nothing official yet
Colts at Jaguars
The Colts are the best bet this week in my opinion. They have one of the top defensive line units in the NFL, especially against the run. The first time they played the Jags in week 1, they stopped multiple 4th and 1 and short yardage plays to the point where Jax went to the quick passing game. The Colts were beating the Jags 21-17 at the end of the 3rd in that game and the game *should* have ended 24-21. The defense was gassed and on one of the last drives allowed a long conversion on 3rd and 12 that led to a score to put the Jaguars up 24-21. Then, the colts gave up a garbage TD where Travis Etienne had a long TD run due to a missed tackle at the end of the game that made the score 31-21. Despite these two scores, at the end of the game, the Colts still drove down the field with Minshew and had a chance to score at the end on 4th down as time was expiring. The opening line was Jaguars -5.5 and the line is sitting at Jaguars -3.5 at most books. This is due to a ton of sharp money coming in on the Colts. The Jaguars seem to be favored by the public after going 2-0 during their European road trip and beating the Falcons and the Bills. Traveling back to Europe, and with their 37-17 loss to the Texans as a distant memory, why wouldn't the public back the Jaguars against the Colts and their backup QB? This just screams let down spot in a divisional matchup. This game really should come down to a field goal either way and I see tremendous value in backing the Colts at any number 4 or above.
The Ravens have looked good when they are healthy. Their ability to win depends largely on whether or not Lamar turns the ball over and runs with the football as if he is holding a hot potato. In week 1 against the Texans, he had two key fumbles, one while he was scrambling holding the ball all the way out as he was trying to juke a defender. He faces a Titans defense this week that has been very mediocre (at best) against the pass but they are one of the better run stopping units. I think this plays into Tennessee's strength and Baltimores defense, as the Titan's ability to stop the run should force Jackson to go with the quick, intermediate, and deep passing game.
This is a game where again these two teams travel across the pond. There really is no home field advantage here. The line movement has been interesting. I realize that the line has moved from 4 all the way to Titans +5.5 indicating serious money and likely some sharp guys and betting syndicates liking the Ravens. I can appreciate this. The Ravens are finally getting healthy. Their starting safety and corner are back, and Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen are two of the most physical inside linebackers in all of football. It will be a great matchup watching them go up against Derrick Henry. The Titans offensive line is in the bottom third in the league and they will be challenged all games against this Ravens defense, meaning the Titans success is going to rest in the hands of Ryan Tannehill
If there is one thing that I like about this game that features two of the more physical AFC teams going toe to toe against one another, it is the fact that the Titans, with Mike Vrabel, are once again in the dog spot. I love taking Vrabel with the points. Yes, the Ravens are likely PISSED after letting last weeks game against the Steelers slip away from them and will look to play inspired ball but, just like the Colts vs. Jags matchup, I see this a close one where points will come at a premium.
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Titans vs Ravens
The Ravens have looked good when they are healthy. Their ability to win depends largely on whether or not Lamar turns the ball over and runs with the football as if he is holding a hot potato. In week 1 against the Texans, he had two key fumbles, one while he was scrambling holding the ball all the way out as he was trying to juke a defender. He faces a Titans defense this week that has been very mediocre (at best) against the pass but they are one of the better run stopping units. I think this plays into Tennessee's strength and Baltimores defense, as the Titan's ability to stop the run should force Jackson to go with the quick, intermediate, and deep passing game.
This is a game where again these two teams travel across the pond. There really is no home field advantage here. The line movement has been interesting. I realize that the line has moved from 4 all the way to Titans +5.5 indicating serious money and likely some sharp guys and betting syndicates liking the Ravens. I can appreciate this. The Ravens are finally getting healthy. Their starting safety and corner are back, and Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen are two of the most physical inside linebackers in all of football. It will be a great matchup watching them go up against Derrick Henry. The Titans offensive line is in the bottom third in the league and they will be challenged all games against this Ravens defense, meaning the Titans success is going to rest in the hands of Ryan Tannehill
If there is one thing that I like about this game that features two of the more physical AFC teams going toe to toe against one another, it is the fact that the Titans, with Mike Vrabel, are once again in the dog spot. I love taking Vrabel with the points. Yes, the Ravens are likely PISSED after letting last weeks game against the Steelers slip away from them and will look to play inspired ball but, just like the Colts vs. Jags matchup, I see this a close one where points will come at a premium.
CJ Stroud. The kid looks poised. Despite injuries to his offensive line, the kid has yet to throw an interception. Yes, he is running for his life but his accuracy with the ball througout these first few games of the season has been admirable. I have to admit that I totally wrote this kid off. I used to live in Columbus and would watch him play at OSU. I always thought that he would be a total bust in the NFL and had Anthony Richardson graded higher than him in the draft and thought that the Texans really blundered when they took this kid. I will admit that he has proved me wrong. It seems like every time I check a box score, he is throwing for 300 plus yards. The Texans came off a tough loss versus Atlanta where Stroud manufactured a late drive to put the Texans ahead of Atlanta. The Texans are well coached. Their defense is playing inspired. Prior to their loss against Atlanta, they had beaten up on the Steelers quite convincingly and smashed the Jaguars in week 3 to the tune of 37-17. Now, they are back home and getting points??
How is NO the road favorite? Has Derek Carr really played that well to deserve this? They smashed the lowly patriots 34-0 nothing last week and this is fresh in everyones mind. Recency bias can be difficult to overcome when betting. Where do we go with this matchup?
I think that this will be one of the most intriguing games to watch tomorrow. I really think that the Houston Texans are really underrated and probably hold the coaching advantage here as well. The reason I lean the Saints is because of their elite defense. Their defense is healthy. This will be a great test for them. With the exception of the TB Bucs a few weeks ago, the defense had held multiple opponents to less than 19 points/game
I will take the better defense in this situation, going against a (very good) rookie QB. I think that this will be the first week that CJ Stroud will throw an interception.
Now, having said that - The Houston Texans got starting LT Laremy Tunsil and LG Tyus Howard back. They now have 3 of their 5 starting lineman healthy. The Texans offensive line recorded the highest pass blocking efficiency in week 5 after allowing just 3 pressures on 35 drop backs. Furthermore, based on PFF, Laremy Tunsil did not allow a single pressure last week and recorded the highest pass blocking grade among all offensive tackles in week 5.
CJ Stroud, with protection.........will he be successful against NO.
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NO Saints at Texans
CJ Stroud. The kid looks poised. Despite injuries to his offensive line, the kid has yet to throw an interception. Yes, he is running for his life but his accuracy with the ball througout these first few games of the season has been admirable. I have to admit that I totally wrote this kid off. I used to live in Columbus and would watch him play at OSU. I always thought that he would be a total bust in the NFL and had Anthony Richardson graded higher than him in the draft and thought that the Texans really blundered when they took this kid. I will admit that he has proved me wrong. It seems like every time I check a box score, he is throwing for 300 plus yards. The Texans came off a tough loss versus Atlanta where Stroud manufactured a late drive to put the Texans ahead of Atlanta. The Texans are well coached. Their defense is playing inspired. Prior to their loss against Atlanta, they had beaten up on the Steelers quite convincingly and smashed the Jaguars in week 3 to the tune of 37-17. Now, they are back home and getting points??
How is NO the road favorite? Has Derek Carr really played that well to deserve this? They smashed the lowly patriots 34-0 nothing last week and this is fresh in everyones mind. Recency bias can be difficult to overcome when betting. Where do we go with this matchup?
I think that this will be one of the most intriguing games to watch tomorrow. I really think that the Houston Texans are really underrated and probably hold the coaching advantage here as well. The reason I lean the Saints is because of their elite defense. Their defense is healthy. This will be a great test for them. With the exception of the TB Bucs a few weeks ago, the defense had held multiple opponents to less than 19 points/game
I will take the better defense in this situation, going against a (very good) rookie QB. I think that this will be the first week that CJ Stroud will throw an interception.
Now, having said that - The Houston Texans got starting LT Laremy Tunsil and LG Tyus Howard back. They now have 3 of their 5 starting lineman healthy. The Texans offensive line recorded the highest pass blocking efficiency in week 5 after allowing just 3 pressures on 35 drop backs. Furthermore, based on PFF, Laremy Tunsil did not allow a single pressure last week and recorded the highest pass blocking grade among all offensive tackles in week 5.
CJ Stroud, with protection.........will he be successful against NO.
Last year, during the regular season, the team that faced the SF 49ers (win or lose) had an 0-15 SU record the following week......
The reason is because this team is just so damn physical. They will wear you out. They maul defenses with their zone running scheme and it takes time for teams to recover. I recognize that it is my Chargers team (I have huge futures bets on the Chargers and 49ers) that Dallas is playing this week. I know that Dallas plays solid coming off of a bad loss (look at the Arizona game) but this is just one trend that is difficult to ignore. You can scratch the *home field* advantage that doesn't exist for the home game for the Chargers. The Dallas O-line is one of the best units in the league when healthy and their ability to run the ball plays in to the Chargers weakness (poor against the run). Tyler Smith is the highest graded Offensive Guard in the NFL right now and he and Zach Martin are both playing at an all-pro level and are both in the top 5 offensive guards in the NFL. I think Dallas will run all over the Chargers to make things easier for Dak Prescott. However, the trend above is very, very hard to ignore...
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Last year, during the regular season, the team that faced the SF 49ers (win or lose) had an 0-15 SU record the following week......
The reason is because this team is just so damn physical. They will wear you out. They maul defenses with their zone running scheme and it takes time for teams to recover. I recognize that it is my Chargers team (I have huge futures bets on the Chargers and 49ers) that Dallas is playing this week. I know that Dallas plays solid coming off of a bad loss (look at the Arizona game) but this is just one trend that is difficult to ignore. You can scratch the *home field* advantage that doesn't exist for the home game for the Chargers. The Dallas O-line is one of the best units in the league when healthy and their ability to run the ball plays in to the Chargers weakness (poor against the run). Tyler Smith is the highest graded Offensive Guard in the NFL right now and he and Zach Martin are both playing at an all-pro level and are both in the top 5 offensive guards in the NFL. I think Dallas will run all over the Chargers to make things easier for Dak Prescott. However, the trend above is very, very hard to ignore...
Last year, during the regular season, the team that faced the SF 49ers (win or lose) had an 0-15 SU record the following week...... The reason is because this team is just so damn physical. They will wear you out. They maul defenses with their zone running scheme and it takes time for teams to recover. I recognize that it is my Chargers team (I have huge futures bets on the Chargers and 49ers) that Dallas is playing this week. I know that Dallas plays solid coming off of a bad loss (look at the Arizona game) but this is just one trend that is difficult to ignore. You can scratch the *home field* advantage that doesn't exist for the home game for the Chargers. The Dallas O-line is one of the best units in the league when healthy and their ability to run the ball plays in to the Chargers weakness (poor against the run). Tyler Smith is the highest graded Offensive Guard in the NFL right now and he and Zach Martin are both playing at an all-pro level and are both in the top 5 offensive guards in the NFL. I think Dallas will run all over the Chargers to make things easier for Dak Prescott. However, the trend above is very, very hard to ignore...
From what I heard, the trend is 1-19. I do believe this Monday might be an exception because 1) Dallas has had an extra day to prepare and lick their wounds and 2) Dallas is going into a bye and they can empty the tank on Monday.
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Quote Originally Posted by Ih8coldweather:
Last year, during the regular season, the team that faced the SF 49ers (win or lose) had an 0-15 SU record the following week...... The reason is because this team is just so damn physical. They will wear you out. They maul defenses with their zone running scheme and it takes time for teams to recover. I recognize that it is my Chargers team (I have huge futures bets on the Chargers and 49ers) that Dallas is playing this week. I know that Dallas plays solid coming off of a bad loss (look at the Arizona game) but this is just one trend that is difficult to ignore. You can scratch the *home field* advantage that doesn't exist for the home game for the Chargers. The Dallas O-line is one of the best units in the league when healthy and their ability to run the ball plays in to the Chargers weakness (poor against the run). Tyler Smith is the highest graded Offensive Guard in the NFL right now and he and Zach Martin are both playing at an all-pro level and are both in the top 5 offensive guards in the NFL. I think Dallas will run all over the Chargers to make things easier for Dak Prescott. However, the trend above is very, very hard to ignore...
From what I heard, the trend is 1-19. I do believe this Monday might be an exception because 1) Dallas has had an extra day to prepare and lick their wounds and 2) Dallas is going into a bye and they can empty the tank on Monday.
I ML'ed The Colts +180 on Monday. I agree this game should come down to the wire. I also reviewed game #1 between The Colts and Jags. Colts were leading going into the 4th quarter. Colts also didn't have Moss or Jonthan Taylor playing that game. I love the revenge angle that Minshew presents going back to play his old team Jacksonville. He's played well in the games he's started when A Richardson has been injured. 3-0 as a starter. I love this spot as a let down spot for The Jags, add in the jet lag traveling back from 2 weeks in Europe. The Colts were in that game week 1 with a rookie QBs first start and both of their starting RBs not playing.
Slam the ML as that +170 odds are worth the risk. Nice write up. I agree with alot of what you wrote. GL
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@Ih8coldweather
I ML'ed The Colts +180 on Monday. I agree this game should come down to the wire. I also reviewed game #1 between The Colts and Jags. Colts were leading going into the 4th quarter. Colts also didn't have Moss or Jonthan Taylor playing that game. I love the revenge angle that Minshew presents going back to play his old team Jacksonville. He's played well in the games he's started when A Richardson has been injured. 3-0 as a starter. I love this spot as a let down spot for The Jags, add in the jet lag traveling back from 2 weeks in Europe. The Colts were in that game week 1 with a rookie QBs first start and both of their starting RBs not playing.
Slam the ML as that +170 odds are worth the risk. Nice write up. I agree with alot of what you wrote. GL
Tough game to call either way. The Chargers have the Chiefs on deck. I like that they’re the team coming off of a bye rather than the cowboys getting banged up. I think Kellen Moore will call an excellent game.
Dallas has no middle linebacker essentially…
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@begginerboy
Tough game to call either way. The Chargers have the Chiefs on deck. I like that they’re the team coming off of a bye rather than the cowboys getting banged up. I think Kellen Moore will call an excellent game.
Believe me I am not loving any of these bets. Some of the best bets are the toughest ones to make…
I can appreciate the devils advocate.
I looked hard at the Bengals Seattle game. Bengals seem to be the huge favorite by everyone on this forum. Seattle O line is sub par and folks think the bengals can get on track. But Seattle has a good secondary and two of the best corners in the league. I think this will be a great game and a toss up just like the rest of these games.
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@WilliamMunny
Believe me I am not loving any of these bets. Some of the best bets are the toughest ones to make…
I can appreciate the devils advocate.
I looked hard at the Bengals Seattle game. Bengals seem to be the huge favorite by everyone on this forum. Seattle O line is sub par and folks think the bengals can get on track. But Seattle has a good secondary and two of the best corners in the league. I think this will be a great game and a toss up just like the rest of these games.
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