Regular Season: 39-37-1 (ATS, ML, Teasers), units: +18.28 units
Playoffs: 1-3, units: -20.08
Good morning!
Today is the BIG day! I am here in Vegas at the Venetian and will be catching the game at Circa. I had a very mediocre regular season and took a huge L as I had the Chargers as my preseason fav to win the SB for 7 dimes Not to worry, as my second position was on the 49ers in:
-Preseason (+900)
-Week 4 (+600)
-Week 7 (+425)
-Week 11 (+400)
For a little over 8 dimes to recoup my Chargers loss and have a very nice year. Full disclaimer about this so as to give everyone some insight about my current position, what is at stake, if I will hedge or middle, and what went into my handicapping analysis.
This game is a tale of two teams viewed completely differently by the public. The 49ers have barely been able to beat a #7 seed in the GB Packers, and really *should* have lost to Detroit. Dan Campbell got a lot of head for the 4th and 2 call where Reynolds dropped a pass that hit him right in the hands, and it was certainly the right play call as the lions had a higher 4th down completion percentage than the kickers accuracy kicking from 45+ yards. You could say that the 49ers in a way very lucky to be here. Contrast that with the defending SB Champion Chiefs. This team looked so incredibly mediocre all year, with losses to the Lions, Broncos, Eagles, Packers, Bills, and Raiders. Then this team turned it up in the playoffs and beat the Dolphins, Bills and Ravens, with the last two wins coming on the Road to silence the critics.
How could anyone bet against Mahomes and company?
Lets look at where the line opened and where it has moved to, where the sharp/square money is going, and what we can we infer from this? The line opened at SF -2.5 and that lasted for about 1 minute before the bettors bet the line down to anywhere from -1.5 to -2. Depending on where you look (action app, ceasars, DK, BetMGM) it appears that > 60% (sometimes approaching 70%) of the tickets are on KC and almost 70% of the money is on KC. We saw the line settle at SF -2 throughout the week and just recently moved to -1.5.
If so much money is on KC, why hasn't the line moved to a pick'em? Are the books welcoming KC money and if so, what gives in terms of lack of line move? I get that you need a TON of money to actually move this line giving the amount of money that is being wagered on this event in this age of legalized sports betting, but I have to think that part of it is for protection given the large amount of futures money tied to the 49ers and the exposure that the books have.