JAN 11-13

It should be an entertaining and exciting playoffs.  It is very different than in other sports, where they are a series.  These will all be must-win games.  So, there are not a lot of chances for a ‘better’ team to overcome mistakes or a bad game-plan in one game as there would be in a series.

2024-2025

Regular season:  114-96   +1949

Playoffs:  

2023-2024

Regular season:  133-110  +2465

Playoffs:  19-11 +2270

2022-2023  

Regular season:  73-59 +939

Playoffs:  11-7 +346

2U LAC -3 +102

If their defense plays like they can and Herbert has a good game, they should win easy enough.  This is where Harbaugh can show why he is here.

1U PIT +10 -114

Either Jackson plays like the regular season QB or the playoff QB.  The last meeting was the 1st time in the last 10 meetings that either team has won by more than 10 points and PIT had chances to keep it closer.  Plus, PIT has won 8 of the last 10 meetings.  Pickens will have to catch the balls this time.

I think PIT will have to make it an ugly game and I am curious how much BLT will try to establish the run just to make it easier for Jackson to have a good first game in the playoffs.

I really want to play the UNDER here as well.  Because PIT will want to make sure they try to run enough to open the passing game up and keep Jackson off the field.  Like, I said, I also think BLT will try to do the same to help Jackson’s confidence in the playoff setting.

But I just cannot have both wagers at a time when Jackson may be due a playoff breakout game.

DEN/BUF

1U J Allen O7.5 Rushing atts -105

Allen has run more in the playoffs than he has in the regular season — 8.3 and 6.8.  I think with DEN having such a good pass defense he will opt to tuck it and run somewhat more.  I also think they will have the ball a lot if Nix cannot stay on the field.

As much as I think DEN defense can hold back BUF’s high-powered offense, I just cannot take a young QB against an experienced QB in the playoffs in one of the toughest places to play a playoff game.

A rookie QB against an experienced playoff QB is like 19-37 ATS (34%) in the last 20 years or so.

No matter how good a defense is, if your offense does a lot of 3-and-outs the defense will get tired.

It will be very interesting how this game plays out.  If DEN were to pull the upset off, I think they could be a force against BLT and, for sure, against KC.

2U GB +5 -105

I think this should be a close game if Love steps up and his elbow is really fine.  Hurts has just not been that impressive.  That assumes he will be okay to play and not be too rusty.

2U WAS O50.5 +100

I think this sets up very well to be a high-scoring affair.  Maybe the coaches scheme it to try to outguess what the opponent will game-plan for — and it might slow the game down.  But neither defense looks like they will be able to slow the other one down.  It could very easily be a game where it comes down to who has the ball last for a game-winning FG.

1U LAR +130

I just did not see Stafford have any problems with the blitz and pressure of the MIN defense the last time they played.  Usually Stafford has some issues against defenses that pressure and he forces the ball and makes mistakes.  So, I am not sure if he can be that clean again or not.  But I think all the WRs had full practice and the passing game has looked strong down the stretch.  I worry how Darnold will do in back-to-back pressure games.

Excellent write-up , Raiders.  

Really appreciate you sharing your analysis behind the picks.  I'm with you on LAC.  Harbaugh and the boys should take care of HOU.  They hold a huge coaching advantage,  and HOU has not looked well in the last 6 games.. 

@Raiders22

 I like your take on the Rams game. Not sure I can bet them because of the way an aging Stafford handles pressure these days. Every time I bet Stafford he folds up like a lawn chair. Of course, every time I bet against him he’s super man. The Rams are my nemesis in NFL betting. Anyway…

Im looking at the under because I think both QBs can struggle here. I think there’s a good chance of a scoreless quarter as well. Wish I got it at 48, but I’m looking at under 47.5. What say you?

@Raiders22

Good luck Raiders.  

22 

@brn2loslive2win

Very good points.  

Stafford struggles against pressure.  This year he had a rating of 111.5 with no pressure but a rating of 47.  That is awful and a HUGE disparity.

However, MIN has a hyper-agressive defense and will be blitzing and pressuring.

But, as I mentioned above, in the first game it did not seem to bother him at all.  He had a nice game where the pressure did not bother him and 124 rating and no sacks.

I also think all of his WRs practiced and will play and perform.  Nacua ended the season as the most efficient WR.  If Kupp plays like he can, it will be great.  MIN will have a hard time if Stafford is able to pick them apart.

Plus, LAR rested some key folks last week and MIN had to play everyone.  If Stafford has the playoff poise he should and their defense plays like it has been, then I think LAR should win the game.

The total I had set at 43.  So, I think a case could be made for that.  I am leery about how both teams play at a 'neutral' venue.  The I was not sure if 'rested' players would come out rusty or on fire; or, if 'disappointed' players having to play a wildcard game and not getting a bye would be super-motivated.  I think a total play comes down to how exactly how both teams start the game out and their mindset.  Plus, LAR defense has been playing good and MIN did last week but let the game get away late, but it still stayed under.

I think all of that dissuaded me from a total play.

But I think all of that will average out over the entirety of a full game and I simply saw better value on the side play.

But you make a great point about Stafford and a low-scoring game.

@brn2loslive2win

 I will add that in the NFL -- 47 is a very 'key' number.  More games end there than any other.  

So, if you see value on the under, like I do, then a half-point should be fine.  

This is so key that when they set it at 47, they are, more or less, saying the game could go either way.

So, in a sense, you are simply 'getting' a half-point and not 'needing' a half-point -- IF you like the UNDER.

@Raiders22

 GL to you Raiders. You’re a valuable asset around here and there isn’t many these days. Your insight is always appreciated. 

@Rush51

Thanks 

Yessir.  It came down to coaching/QB combo to me.  I like Stroud a lot and I think he is going to be very good.  BUT they needed a RB bad.  They went and got one and it has not helped at all and maybe hurt a bit.  BUT if he is healthy and can have a good game that can turn the tables.

LAC has at the second-best Pass Defense (2.4) behind DEN.  It is very good.  There Pass Rush is good (1.3).

BUT their Run Defense is one of the worst (-.2).  That is how they can be beat.

I simply do not think HOU can run on them because their RUSH game is awful and their efficiency rating is actually negative (-.5).

But that is what makes it so interesting in a playoff game -- to see if it actually plays out like you think it will.  That is why coaches gameplay to attack perceived weaknesses and try to shore up their own from being attacked.

BOL Raiders - prolly tail a few of these for action