JAN 18/19

116-100   +1585

2U  HOU +8.5 -108

This is basically giving a lot of credit to the way HOU DEF has stepped up.  I do not think KC will have the firepower to get a two-TD lead and keep it.  The weakest part of HOU DEF is the RUN DEF.  However, the KC RUN unit is actually a negatively rated efficient unit.

KC still has Mahomes, of course.  But I think there is a chance that they come out a bit flat because of too much time off.  Mahomes and KC are still only 16-17 ATS with the advantage of rest.  KC did a great job this year winning within a one-score margin, 10 games; only 4 games were won by more than 8 points. (1-5 ATS this year when favored by 7 or more)

I did see these numbers as well. Mahomes/KC are 54-15 SU since Mahomes was named the starter in 2018, but they’re just 31-35-3 ATS.

So, there are some ATS trends that KC will have to buck with a ‘large’ spread like this.  I think that HOU will also have a tad of confidence from last week’s nice win.

I feel that if HOU gets the ball and scores first, or stops KC and then can score first — this is a solid chance for HOU to cover.

However, if KC happens to get the lead early and their DEF goes into lockdown mode on HOU/Stroud and their PASS game — they have a chance to take a big lead.

I say this with the caveat of Mixon actually having a nice game last week.  This, by far, is the weakest unit HOU has — they also have a negative RUN game, and KC RUN DEF is also their weakest unit.

So, there is some chance that the RUN game can actually help Stroud — whereas, it has not helped much at all this season.

2U WAS +10 -117

I think this will come down to how well Daniels plays.  I pointed out last week the awful record 1st-year QBs have in their 1st playoff game against an experienced QB when talking about Nix.  Daniels exceeded the expectations.

If he is able to get rid of the ball clean, he should do well.  If he opts to take off, he should have great success running against DET.

One issue will be how well Daniels handles the Red Zone DEF of DET.  If they can break through for TDs, instead of settling for FGs, early in the game, then I think they can keep it closer than 10 points.

I saw this, which is interesting to consider:

“Daniels also has a ridiculous 98.1 QBR against the blitz over the past 6 games, so it’s going to be extremely difficult for Detroit to rattle this budding superstar just by bringing extra pressure.”

“The trends aren’t kind to home teams in this situation either. Per Evan Abrams, home teams in the Divisional Round coming off a bye are 33-42-1 against the spread (44%) since 2003. Additionally, they are 17-24-1 against the number (42%) as favorites of 7 or more points off a bye. Even against a team playing in its 2nd straight postseason road game, the team coming off the bye is still 15-22-1 ATS (41%).”

1U WAS U55.5 -107

DET DEF has improved and RZ DEF is great.  DET should mix it up enough to continue having their long drives.  This is a very key total number in the NFL, so it is worth taking a small chance if the game plays out the way I think it might.

2U LAR +6 -103

If Stafford can keep from making the same mistakes that Love did last week, I think they keep this close.  I feel that Stafford simply has more options and experience under pressure.  I think McVay will have both sides of his team ready.  If they can pressure Hurts into rushing his throws, he has not really looked that good.

But if PHL DEF takes over the game, like they did last week, I feel the LAR DEF has shown they can step up as well.  So, if it is a low-scoring game because of that, then it can be a close game.  This, coupled with the possibility that the gameplan might be a lot of Barkley to help Hurts, might slow the game down enough to keep it close.

But there is some concern that PHL and HURTS are due to have a breakout on OFF, and the LAR is due to play as they did earlier in the year.  I am betting on both units for LAR to be at their best and the PHL team relying on their DEF and running game and passing only when necessary.

1U LAR U44 -110

This is a play on the weather, especially the wind.  It looks right now that it will be borderline the MPH that will affect the total.

It also is a play on the much better play of both DEFs down the stretch.

.5U Hurts U205.5 Passing Yds -115

.5U Hurts O37.5 Rushing Yds -113

.5U Elliot O 6.5 Kicking PTs -149

2U BLT -1 -102

This will not be a rookie QB coming to BUF this weekend, but a QB having one of the best years ever.  However, does one good game in the playoffs mean that Jackson has overcome his playoff woes or not?  That will have to be shown.

This game is a matchup of two QBs with high expectations that need to show they can be elite in the playoffs and get to the Super Bowl — and win it.

It has been a while since the expectations for two QBs in the playoffs have been so high, and they have been matched against each other.  

BUF and Allen looked good against the best PASS DEF unit last week.  But the BLT whole DEF unit has really looked better late in the season and they are used to these types of games.

The weakest unit on the field should be the BLT RUN DEFENSE.  But they did a very good job against a decent run unit last week.  Even though PIT was obviously trying to establish the run.  I had the Allen over rushing attempts last week, and I think he simply has more options in the running game to make it work.

The other issue could be that the basic read-option plays that BLT was running so effectively last week may not be as effective against BUF.

So, the other mismatch should be the BLT PASS game against one of the worst PASS DEF units in the league, and certainly the worst one left in the playoffs.

So, if BUF concentrates on containing Henry, I think Jackson can take advantage of this through the air and possibly running himself.

A lot of this will depend on the weather.  If the game turns ugly because of this, that is a type of game BLT is very used to playing.

Good luck Raiders.  

@Raiders22

I feel that if HOU gets the ball and scores first, or stops KC and then can score first — this is a solid chance for HOU to cover.

However, if KC happens to get the lead early and their DEF goes into lockdown mode on HOU/Stroud and their PASS game — they have a chance to take a big lead.

Accurate assessment here   

One question though, how are you getting KC's run defense is a negatively rated efficiency unit?  DVOA has them 9th in the league (passing 17th) just behind the Bills

Nice input 22. GL 

@kcblitzkrieg

The Overall rating of efficient stats that make up the WAR is negative in their rushing game.

It is 28th at -.5

PE/Play is 28th -.017

EPA/A is 13th 0.00

Positive play% 10th 45.1%

YAC/att 32nd 2.2

BT&MT/A% 31st 8.9%

Hit at line% 7th 40%

Stuff% 8th 17.6%

Designed gap% 11th 70.7%

Blown Block% for Runs 13th 3.26%

BUT

Blown Block for Pass% is 1st 1.529%

Rushing WAR in 1-score game 27th -.4

Rushing WAR in 3rd/4th Q 26th -.2

It comes down to not having a solid RB — none of the 3 they use, Hunt, Steele, or Pacheco have been very good.

Some of the numbers that do look decent seem more to be coach-scheming and O-Line play than RB performance.  The coaching and designed plays look decent.  They are mixing the plays up well.  They are hitting the correct gaps.

The line is keeping them from getting stuffed.

But the RB numbers after contact and breaking and missing tackles are just not there.  Mahomes is the their most effective runner.  This is not uncommon with a mobile QB.  But Mahomes is doing it more than he should have to.

The issue is that they do not have the RBs that can take full advantage of the line play and the coaching mixture of play-calling.

But all they need is one to heir RBs to get hot and then ride him enough to allow Mahomes to do his thing.

@kcblitzkrieg

Their RUN DEF WAR is their weakest Unit on DEF.

They are 18th at .3

PS/Play is 20th at .309

EPA/A is 15th at -.03

But PASS DEF WAR is 14th at .9

PASS RUSH WAR is 10th at 1.3

So, I was saying that a way a team could take advantage of their DEF was to be able to run on them effectively.

I do not think HOU can do it though.  Because their running game has been bad.  BUT Mixon looked good last week.

So, it will be interesting to see how it plays out.

I keep telling everyone the swifty energy is weak this season. You have a chance. 

@Raiders22

 Guess which team D ranks #1 versus the run??? Hint, it ain't the Bills. 

@Buffalobob89074

 No sir.  Not for the year.  

But if you look at their last 5,6,7 game rolling average -- they have been very solid.

Top 1 or 2.  They look great against the run.

But for sure, this will be their final exam of the year against the run.

@Raiders22

 Understood, thanks.  

 Pacheco has always had poor vision and consistently leaves yards to be gained on the field.  He runs hard and that's about it.  When Hunt came back off his couch you could immediately see the difference but that didn't last long and he hit a wall after 4-5 games.  He's an upgrade over Pacheco in goal to go situations and Andy apparently feels the same as he has had the lead duty in those and other short yardage situations.  

@kcblitzkrieg

 Nice assessment 

@Raiders22

 Great write up. I was going to bet KC early in the week, but I’ve gathered enough information over the last two days to feel confident that Houston is the right side. I hate the fact that I’m backing CJ on the road in a cold weather game, but I have the line on the game between KC -3.5 and KC-6. I cant gather any information from anywhere including about a dozen power ratings that show KC being 8 points better than Houston.

Can you explain, if you get a chance what WAR is again? And why you value it so much personally? I recall you bringing up these numbers multiple times in previous conversations.