Posted:
#1
Yesterday: 1-0-0 +$250
YTD: 1-0-0 +$250
I have quite a few leans for Sunday, but I have already locked in my first pick.
NE Patriots -3.5 (-108) vs. MIA Dolphins -- Risking $200 to win $185.18
-- I know earthWake won't be pleased with this pick, and for that I am sorry. Check the science:
Last season the Patriots were missing at the same time: Vollmer, Gronk, Wilfork, Mayo and Kelly. They finished 12-4, secured their 4th straight first round bye and made it to the AFC Championship. At times throughout the season, another key offensive player, in Shane Vereen, was injured or limited. This year, they have built their team specifically to beat the Denver Broncos.
Expect to see Gronk (limited) and Vereen, and the healthiest, most potent defence they have had in years (with the exception of the aforementioned Kelly as he was cut). You do not want to pass against this team. You just don't. Once Browner gets back from suspension, with Revis island also in the secondary it's just plain scary.
Stevan Ridley's job is on the wire here. He will not fumble the ball. He won't. I wouldn't be surprised even if his carries were limited and more work went to Vereen, but if he can perform at his 2012 levels, or even CLOSE, this game might get blown out of the water completely.
On the other side of the ball, you've got Ryan Tannehill, with one of the leagues weaker running tandems in the NFL (sorry, Lamar Miller needs to prove me wrong one season, or he's totally written off in my books as all hype). In order for Bill Lazor's offence to work (like it did in Philly), you need a strong run game, and even with the addition of Knowshon Moreno, I can't believe it's good enough to run that up-tempo offence effectively, not yet at least.
They beat the Patriots last year in the closing weeks of the season. Unfortunately, they then went on to lose to the Bills and Jets, amassing 7 points between both games and missing the playoffs. Their offence just isn't that good yet, though it is better than last year.
Their receiving core has improved to one of the better ones in the NFL, but unfortunately it's not a favourable matchup in week 1. With the ability to run the ball severely limited and danger downfield for Hartline and Wallace, I see this as a tough day down in Florida.
Even though Tannehill is making progression as a QB, he's not even close to elite, which is where Tom Brady is relaxing atop a pedestal with Gisele.
Prediction: NE Patriots 27 MIA Dolphins 16 (I also am leaning the under, but will not be betting it).
Best of luck, more plays to follow closer to Sunday. 
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