Jimmus' Week 5 NFL Picks (2-1 Last Week)

Last Week: 2-1-0 (+$90)

YTD: 2-1-0 (+$90)

The highlight of last week:

Honourable mention: Cleveland throwing away another game they could have won to ensure that the Oakland Raiders covered the -2.5 spread.  Thank you.

Onto this week!

Denver Broncos ML (+100) vs. NY Jets -- Risking $100 to win $100

I still can't buy in on Sam Darnold and the up-and-down New York Jets (with a heavy lean towards down).  Don't get me wrong, I don't think the Broncos have done anything to blow my mind this year, and it's not easy to ever bet on Case Keenum, but they were able to hang with the high powered Chiefs offence and hold Mahomes to his worst game of the season (still with a TD, no ints, and a rushing TD hahaha).  I believe the Broncos Defense, although not what it was even 2 years ago, can put the pressure needed on Darnold, force a couple turnovers and pull out a boring win.

Baltimore Ravens -3 (-115) vs. Cleveland Browns -- Risking $115 to win $100

The Baltimore Ravens allowed more than 14 points against in only one game this season and rank second only to the Jacksonville Jaguars in Yards against per game.  In the game they lost, Flacco turned the ball over 3 times.  This is a tougher one because Cleveland could actually be 4-0 right now, but just statistically this feels like a very strong play.  Better offensive rankings and defensive rankings by a significant margin for the Ravens.  That and the fact that they are starting to get some good looks with Lamar Jackson make this an early week bet for me.  I could see this line moving.  I might bet the Cleveland TT under when it is released if it's 21.5 or less.

Tennessee Titans -3.5 (-110) vs. Buffalo Bills -- Risking $165 to win $150

Never in my life did I think I would be betting a game that involved these two teams.  It just seems like a terrible game to bet.  On paper though, The Bills are an absolute dumpster fire, and probably the worst team in the NFL.  They beat the Vikings, sure, but the Vikings defense is not looking at all like it did the past couple of years.  The Tennessee Titans, on the other hand, have started to show that they may not actually be pretenders.  Do they need to improve on the offensive side of the ball still?  Sure.  The reality is that the Titans beat Houston, beat Jacksonville, and beat the Eagles.  I'll take the team that is finding a way to get it done, not a team that scored zero points just a week ago with a rookie QB.

Also leaning on Cowboys ML and Redskins ML, but not pulling the trigger on either yet.

Best of luck everyone! 

 - Jimmus

Adding:

NE Patriots -10 (-125) vs. IND Colts -- Risking $125 to win $100

Considering the number of missing weapons in Indy and losing a starting safety to injury, not to mention the return of Edelman and the Patriots returning to form last week, this seems like a "trap line".  Normally that's really hard to say about double-digit favourites.  I read a couple of people who thought NE might look ahead or the Colts could get some garbage time TDs, but the Patriots never take their foot off the gas, regardless of the size of their lead or time in the game.  I see this being another stomping such as they administered on Miami.  

Josh Gordon over 35.5 Yards Receiving (-135) -- Risking $270 to win $200

This is my favourite play so far of the season (hence the almost 3 units on it).  Gronk will be limited due to his ankle injury, Edelman will be getting a lot of attention on defence, and that frees up the other big, strong receiver on offence to make plays.  I wouldn't be shocked if Gordon was the leading receiver this game.  He's shown he only needs 2 receptions to get this number, and I guarantee with Gronk not participating in practices, this guy was getting tonnes of practice and time to learn the routes.  Big game for Gordon, feel free to pick in in your DFS leagues too!

OAK Raiders +5 (-110) vs. LA Chargers -- Risking $110 to win $100

OAK Raiders vs. LA Chargers o52.5 (-110) -- Risking $110 to win $100

I said it when I picked the Raiders last week - They could currently be undefeated.  They have the second best offensive stats (not points, but yards) in the NFL next to the ridiculous offence of the Rams.  They're above some other noteworthy teams like Pittsburgh, TB, NO, Atlanta, and yes, even the Chargers.  That being said, both of these teams have a very strong offence, and if they both go off, we could see another 60-65 point game!  I'm telling you right now, don't sleep on Oakland, even if they lose this game, you will be able to get paid on these guys moving forward in the season!

Best of luck guys and dolls.  

 - Jimmus