REGULAR SEASON: 53-44 (+510)
PLAYOFFS: 6-7 (-145)
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Much better the 2nd weekend going 3-2 only missing out on Saints -8 (thanks Wil Lutz) and the UNDER in the Pats/Chargers game (no idea the Pats were going to be that good). Only three more games in the NFL season, which is always sad.
LA Rams @ New Orleans Saints
Projected: Saints -4.5 O/U 57
Actual: Saints -3.5 O/U 56.5
Pretty close on this one all around, nothing really out of the ordinary for lines in the Championship round, you know the teams inside and out. Rams were able to run it straight down the Cowboys throats for 3 hours while the Saints had a much more unconventional way of winning their game against the Eagles.
Rams outside of the state of California this year have not been as impressive as they have been when the situation is in their favor. They were 2-4 ATS this year out of their state, and those two wins were against the Cardinals at the end of the year who weren't trying, and the Lions who barely tried. The Rams allow the 7th highest yards per play in the NFL while the Saints gained the 7th highest yards per play. The Rams came into New Orleans in the middle of the season and got fairly well spanked, and that was with Cooper Kupp helping the offense. They had no answer for Michael Thomas and Drew Brees the entire game.
The Sheldon Rankins injury on the Saints D-Line is going to be huge. He was their best interior lineman by far and with the emergence of CJ Anderson to help spell Gurley and keep his workload smaller the Rams could slow the game down big time with the running game like they did against Dallas. Sean McVay has been the hot name in coaching for the past two years, and is already developing a head coaching "tree" as if he's been in the league for a decade. His ability to gameplan and adjust in-game is incredible. Saints offense has been stuck in neutral ever since they got smacked in the mouth by Dallas. 19.1 points per game in their last 6 games compared to 37.2 points per game in their first 11 games. The Saints don't force a ton of turnovers on the defensive side of the ball.
Overall I think the biggest factor in this game is going to be travel or lack thereof. The Rams have proven all season that they don't travel into difficult situations and perform well. In Seattle they needed a 4th quarter comeback while the Seahawks were still considered a rebuilding team with no real shot at the playoffs. Allowed Russell Wilson to do whatever he wanted. The week after in Denver Jared Goff had his worst game of the season and they barely held on against Case Keenum. We've already covered what happened when they came to New Orleans the first time. When they had the huge Sunday night matchup against the Bears where it was great offense vs. great defense they laid their biggest egg of the season only putting up 200 yards of offense. This is not a team that travels well. On the flip side of that you have the New Orleans Saints who will have been at home for over a month by the time this game is played. They came out lazy and sloppy against the Eagles and it nearly cost them. I'm a little hesitant to fall into the high scoring shootout expectation for this one with the Rankins injury. I think the Rams are able to move the ball fairly well with their running attack. When it comes down to it, this season in the NFC it's been about Drew Brees and the Saints. They've been the absolute best the entire way...and I trust Drew Brees in this situation a lot more than Jared Goff. The Superdome will be absolutely mind-numbingly loud for 3 and a half hours. I see it starting off slower as both teams try and feel each other out, a bunch of running and relatively safe plays...14-10 at the half...Saints take over in the 2nd half with some Jared Goff mistakes.
New England Patriots @ Kansas City Chiefs
Projected: Chiefs -2.5 O/U 57.5
Actual: Chiefs -3 O/U 54.5
Figured this one would be a field goal game, giving the Chiefs the 3 points for the home field advantage, which is something that they wanted for this specific scenario. They looked good last week against the Colts, I won't say great. They clearly had some playoff demons that they were able to get rid of, but to beat the Patriots you have to play better than what they did against Indy. The Patriots on the other hand once again hit their stride in January. As usual everyone wrote them off in September claiming that Brady was too old, they got rid of all their best players again, and the Patriots dynasty was over. They win 5-7 games in a row in October/November and once again prove that they deserve to be in the conversation and aren't going anywhere. They lose to Miami in Miami in December...turn on the over-reaction switch once again...and it all ends with a first round bye, home divisional game that they are able to win fairly easily without much stress, and a trip to the AFC Championship game. All my non-Patriot fans here in NH were struggling to believe the fact that I wasn't worried about the Chargers...but it's all because I've seen that movie 8 straight years now in the second weekend of January. For New England, the season starts with the AFC Championship game...and it's gonna be a great one!
There is only one way to beat Tom Brady and the Patriots in a game that matters. You have to pressure him up the middle. You have to force at least one turnover. You cannot make mistakes (either turnovers or penalties or coaching decisions). The Chiefs were tied for the lead this year in defensive sacks with 52 (3.25 per game). Between Dee Ford, Chris Jones, and Justin Houston the Chiefs have no problem putting pressure on the opposing quarterback...but it's usually not up the middle. They got to Brady twice in the first matchup...and also forced one fumble. I feel like for the Chiefs to be able to win this game, they will have to beat both of those numbers.
What might be the biggest factor heading into this one will be the mistakes. The Chiefs made too many of them in the first matchup, whether it be turnovers (2 interceptions by Mahomes), penalties (5 for the Chiefs, 0 for the Patriots), or coaching decisions, they had a great chance to win that game and allowed Brady to do what he always does. Andy Reid's playoff record is not impressive by any stretch of the imagination. 12 wins, 13 losses, one Super Bowl appearance, and has not been known to make the right decision more often than not. The Patriots just don't make mistakes. Best in the NFL in penalties against, one of the best turnover margins once again. Almost always better prepared, and with a better gameplan. It's what we saw against the Chargers right from the start.
Patriots are completely healthy. Chiefs have some guys that are banged up.
Arrowhead Stadium is one of the best homefield advantages in the league, and they will make it tough.
Weather is supposedly going to be Arctic cold, possibly record setting.
Tom Brady is the best QB ever when it comes to beating opposing QB's in the first playoff appearances. Last year against Nick Foles was the first time a relatively rookie playoff QB was able to win. Other than that it's Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, or Joe Flacco. His soundbites are becoming increasingly salty as the league moves more and more on the Mahomes/Goff/Watson/Luck bandwagon.
LA Rams @ New Orleans Saints
Projected: Saints -4.5 O/U 57
Actual: Saints -3.5 O/U 56.5
Pretty close on this one all around, nothing really out of the ordinary for lines in the Championship round, you know the teams inside and out. Rams were able to run it straight down the Cowboys throats for 3 hours while the Saints had a much more unconventional way of winning their game against the Eagles.
Rams outside of the state of California this year have not been as impressive as they have been when the situation is in their favor. They were 2-4 ATS this year out of their state, and those two wins were against the Cardinals at the end of the year who weren't trying, and the Lions who barely tried. The Rams allow the 7th highest yards per play in the NFL while the Saints gained the 7th highest yards per play. The Rams came into New Orleans in the middle of the season and got fairly well spanked, and that was with Cooper Kupp helping the offense. They had no answer for Michael Thomas and Drew Brees the entire game.
The Sheldon Rankins injury on the Saints D-Line is going to be huge. He was their best interior lineman by far and with the emergence of CJ Anderson to help spell Gurley and keep his workload smaller the Rams could slow the game down big time with the running game like they did against Dallas. Sean McVay has been the hot name in coaching for the past two years, and is already developing a head coaching "tree" as if he's been in the league for a decade. His ability to gameplan and adjust in-game is incredible. Saints offense has been stuck in neutral ever since they got smacked in the mouth by Dallas. 19.1 points per game in their last 6 games compared to 37.2 points per game in their first 11 games. The Saints don't force a ton of turnovers on the defensive side of the ball.
Overall I think the biggest factor in this game is going to be travel or lack thereof. The Rams have proven all season that they don't travel into difficult situations and perform well. In Seattle they needed a 4th quarter comeback while the Seahawks were still considered a rebuilding team with no real shot at the playoffs. Allowed Russell Wilson to do whatever he wanted. The week after in Denver Jared Goff had his worst game of the season and they barely held on against Case Keenum. We've already covered what happened when they came to New Orleans the first time. When they had the huge Sunday night matchup against the Bears where it was great offense vs. great defense they laid their biggest egg of the season only putting up 200 yards of offense. This is not a team that travels well. On the flip side of that you have the New Orleans Saints who will have been at home for over a month by the time this game is played. They came out lazy and sloppy against the Eagles and it nearly cost them. I'm a little hesitant to fall into the high scoring shootout expectation for this one with the Rankins injury. I think the Rams are able to move the ball fairly well with their running attack. When it comes down to it, this season in the NFC it's been about Drew Brees and the Saints. They've been the absolute best the entire way...and I trust Drew Brees in this situation a lot more than Jared Goff. The Superdome will be absolutely mind-numbingly loud for 3 and a half hours. I see it starting off slower as both teams try and feel each other out, a bunch of running and relatively safe plays...14-10 at the half...Saints take over in the 2nd half with some Jared Goff mistakes.
Imo...better to not think about it too much, and just enjoy the ride 
Sheldon Rankins is the Saints best interior lineman, but not by as far as you think. The Saints are small market team, so most folks outside of the region do not follow them that well. But remember that awful game against Dallas on Thursday night? Well the offense was bad that night, but it was typical of road team on Thursday night football...sloppy and unfocused.
But, the Saints defense came to play. They sacked Dak Prescott 7 times. Yes little know fact for some reason. But Sheldon Rankins replacement, David Onyematta, had 3 of those sacks.
He's a very capable replacement and probably even a little bit better against the run. However, he's still young so the Saints will need someone else to step up with defensive calls on the line.
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