REGULAR SEASON: 53-44 (+510)
PLAYOFFS: 0-0
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Finished the season with a nice week and some nice profit. Added on the Colts last night, but since I didn't post it I won't count it towards the record. Not the percentage that I necessarily wanted throughout the season, but a profit is a profit. Now on to the playoffs where we continue to put in the same work and process that we do all year.
Wild Card Weekend Game Breakdown/Line Analysis:
Indianapolis vs Houston
PROJ: Hou -3 O/U 47
ACTUAL: Hou -2.5 O/U 47
Pretty easy to predict where this one would end up. Both of their matchups this season ended as a field goal differential...and it's likely that this one will be in that range as well. Houston played 5 of their 16 games against playoff teams this season and went 2-3 with the two wins coming in OT...and the OT win against the Colts was almost handed to them with the tough fourth down play call. The Colts weren't much better...also going 2-3 against the playoff opponents. All 3 losses were at the first part of the season...the above mentioned OT game against the Texans, then a road game in New England on a short week, followed by a lackluster performance against the Jets. Colts are the hottest team in the league right now winning 9 of their last 10 games and the Texans are historically a choking playoff team. First playoff appearance for DeShaun Watson, so the pressure is clearly on the home team here. If i can get more than a field goal for whatever reason I'd be on the Colts but the OVER is also looking nice. Initial prediction would be 27-24 Colts. Stay away for now.
Seattle vs Dallas
PROJ: Dallas -2 O/U 41
ACTUAL: Dallas -2.5 O/U 42.5
Another game that was relatively easy to predict...and I think this is the game of the weekend. Comes down to an experienced, veteran playoff team that is lead by a QB/Coach combo that has been to two Super Bowls and won one going up against a team that has an inexperienced QB/Coach combo who have yet to win a playoff game. Strong lean towards the Seahawks here on initial view because of those reasons. The Cowboys are one-dimensional...and in order for them to win everything needs to fall into place. The game needs to be at home...Cowboys are 7-1 at home. They need to score first in the game...Seattle is 12th in the league in first quarter scoring while the Cowboys are 1st in the league in first quarter defense...only 24 points allowed. Dallas needs to win the running battle and Zeke needs to have a huge game. The number one rushing offense in the league is...the Seattle Seahawks. What is making me hesitate is the fact that if the Cowboys can score first they can easily control the ball and win the game. I think that's exactly what this one will come down to.
LA Chargers vs Baltimore
PROJ: LAC -1 O/U 45.5
ACTUAL: BAL -2.5 O/U 41.5
Toughest game to predict out of the opening weekend. Chargers were clearly one of the best teams in the NFL all season long...fought for a number one seed. Ravens started out hot, fell off the map, then were resurrected by a rookie QB who can't really throw, but is the most electric runner since Mike Vick. Another reason why this one is a brutal game to cap is that the Chargers are historically chokers in the playoffs much like the Texans and Cowboys...but they also went 7-1 on the road this year. Initial lean would be towards the Chargers because I think they are the better team. The Ravens defense is very good obviously, but the Chargers just have so many darn weapons and can do so many things well that I feel like they will be able to move the ball quite a bit. Baker Mayfield and the Browns moved the ball pretty well against the Ravens on Sunday...and they don't have half the offensive talent. The one thing the Ravens defense doesn't really do is force turnovers...they were slightly below average in all turnover stats. I see the Chargers defense being fast and athletic enough to contain Lamar Jackson and force him to throw more than he wants, especially if they can jump out to a lead. Initial prediction would be Chargers 24 Ravens 20
Philadelphia vs Chicago
PROJ: CHI -6 O/U 45
ACTUAL: CHI -6 O/U 41
Will have to wait until closer to game time and see how the practices go this week for the true health of Nick Foles. The Bears defense is no joke, and I'm sure Khalil Mack will be more than happy to test out those ribs and see how he feels. Bears have an offensive coach but their pass/run % is only 53/47...which is more run-happy than most might think. Eagles run defense is heavily praised by most, but they don't get run on very often, so the per-game stats might be a bit of fool's gold. They do allow some big hitter runs...ranking 21st in the league in yards per rush. Biggest difference in this game besides the health of the quarterback health is the turnover differential. Eagles rank 25th in the league this year in turnover differential...unless Nick Foles does some Nick Foles stuff I can't see them winning this game. Initial prediction Bears 28 Eagles 17
It's really close, but yes right now I would rather have Dak Prescott than Nick Foles
It's really close, but yes right now I would rather have Dak Prescott than Nick Foles
LA Chargers +2.5 ($110 to win $100)
LA vs Baltimore OVER 43 ($110 to win $100)
Too tough for a rookie QB to beat an elite team two times within a few weeks. Ravens defense is right up there with the Bears defense, but I like the Chargers to take everything that they were able to do a couple weeks ago and adjust.
Prediction: Chargers 27 Ravens 20
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