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Johnson's NFL Week 6

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Legend
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Posted: #1
OVERALL RECORD:  14-10   (+0.7u)

Sides:  9-6  (+2.3u) 
Totals:  5-4  (-1.6u)
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Solid 3-1-1 week last week...nailing my only 2 unit play with the Packers on Thursday Night. 

In continuing with my better overall QB theory based on my rankings the "better" QB went 4-2-1 ATS this week and won the only road matchup (Wilson vs Cousins) to go to 9-4 ATS on the road.
 
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Posted: #2
Line Projections:


Indianapolis  (-7)  vs  Houston    48

Jacksonville  vs  Tennessee  (-5)   43
Baltimore  (-4.5)  vs  Tampa Bay   45
Denver  (-8)  vs  NY Jets    49.5
Detroit  (-3)  vs  Minnesota   45
New England  (-4)  vs  Buffalo    44
Carolina  vs  Cincinnati  (-3.5)   47
Pittsburgh  (-3)  vs  Cleveland  43
Green Bay  (-2)  vs  Miami   46
San Diego  (-7.5)  vs  Oakland   48
Chicago  (-1.5)  vs  Atlanta   46.5
Dallas  vs  Seattle  (-4)   47
Washington  vs  Arizona  (-5)   44
NY Giants  vs  Philadelphia  (-3)   50

San Francisco  (-3)  vs  St. Louis   43.5
 
Legend
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Posted: #3
Probably going to roll big with Indy...I think Houston is severely over-rated

Why is Cincy so heavily favored?  Should be a close game as Carolina doesn't have much travel time.

Also don't think the Seahawks dominate the Cowboys as much as the line would indicate.  Cowboys protect the QB and have a great offensive line...that's how you stay with Seattle.


 
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Posted: #4
I m right there with u on INDY. Got them at -2.5
How do u feel about the pats -3 at buff? I feel like buffalo is a little overrated but r the pats back or just had one good showing?
 
Legend
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Posted: #5
Week 6 QB Rankings:

1.  Manning P.
2.  Rodgers
3.  Luck
4.  Brees
5.  Brady
6.  Wilson
7.  Rivers
8.  Romo
9.  Newton
10.  Dalton
11.  Manning  E.
12.  Stafford
13.  Flacco
14.  Cutler
15.  Kaepernick
16.  Ryan
17.  Roethlisberger
18.  Foles
19.  Smith A.
20.  Davis
21.  Orton
22.  Hoyer
23.  Locker
24.  Tannehill
25.  Stanton
26.  Fitzpatrick
27.  Bortles
28.  Cousins
29.  Bridgewater
30.  Glennon
31.  Smith G.
32.  Carr
 
Legend
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Posted: #6
The games in which there is a 15+ difference in the rankings are...

#3  Luck  @  #26  Fitzpatrick
#13  Flacco  @  #30  Glennon
#1   Manning  @  #31  Smith G.
#12  Stafford  @  #29  Bridgewater
#5  Brady  @  #21  Orton
#2  Rodgers  @  #24  Tannehill
#7  Rivers  @  #32  Carr


Going to be VERY interesting to see where this theory takes me this week.  The better QB by 15 or more ranking is 9-4 ATS on the road...and that's every instance this week.
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by sidr314:

I m right there with u on INDY. Got them at -2.5
How do u feel about the pats -3 at buff? I feel like buffalo is a little overrated but r the pats back or just had one good showing?


Would lean towards the Patriots...but it's not going to be as easy as some would think...I can see a 27-20 game.
 
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Posted: #8
I think u have alex smith rated a little low. Hes playing real solid football... I agree with u on indy as well as the cincy game that line is off imo.. also have dallas beating seattle they have the makeup of a team that can get it done as long as they dont beat themselves with negative plays and penalties..
 
Legend
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Posted: #9
That 16-20 ranking is a tough spot...those guys are all essentially interchangeable. 

I can see Dallas winning on the road as well...but it's tough.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #10
Rivers #7 really?  Can I ask what that's based on?
 
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Posted: #11
Rivers is top 3
 
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Posted: #12
GL, CMJohnson1
 
Legend
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by MikeF11:

Rivers #7 really?  Can I ask what that's based on?


#1 in QB rating this year

#4 in passing yards

12 TDs 2 INTs

70% completions

4-1 record
 
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Posted: #14
Thought about putting Rivers even higher.
 
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Indianapolis Colts -2.5  (1.1 to win 1)

Was going to go bigger on this one...but not a huge fan of the public money flooding in.  The better quarterback has won every Thursday night game this year.  Luck is moving into MVP conversations...and I don't think Watt is enough to slow him down.  The better quarterback is 9-4 ATS on the road this year as well.

Prediction:  Colts 31  Texans 21
 
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Posted: #16
CMJ....gonna tease the 7 games with a +15 QB ranking difference!! Wish me "Andrew" Luck!!!! Lol
 
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Posted: #17


Another positive start to the week
 
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Posted: #18

Was on the same side. Gl this week
 
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New England Patriots -1  (1.1 to win 1)

Better quarterback on the road.  Brady owns the Bills.  Bills rushing game is the only thing that worries me...but with the defense getting more and more used to each other and stepping up their effort last week I feel confident they can reasonably shut down Jackson and Spiller.   Should be a relatively close game, but the Pats will hold on late.

Prediction:  Patriots 24  Bills 17
 
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Panthers vs Bengals OVER 43.5  (1.1 to win 1)

Every game since Greg Hardy has been removed from the Panthers lineup has gone over the total for them.  I've been kind of repetitive in my write-ups saying that it allows the offense to not worry as much on the lineman and get to the 2nd level with Davis and Kuechly.  The Bengals aren't in desperation mode for sure...but they will want to focus a lot of their attention on this one after the embarassment on Monday night.  Panthers have the offense to keep up with Cincy as well.

Prediction:  Bengals 30  Panthers 20
 
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Posted: #21
San Diego Chargers -7  (2.2 to win 2)

This is the bigger play of the week for me.  Derek Carr has been terrible for the Raiders this year...but they are going to keep throwing him to the wolves as a learning experience.  The Chargers are one of the best offenses in the league this year with one of the best quarterbacks in the game.  This is the first great offense the Raiders have faced...and they have just now settled into a normal travel schedule after flying about 300,000 miles in the first couple weeks of the season.  Rivers and the boys pick apart the Raiders all day long.

Prediction:  Chargers 35  Raiders 10
 
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Posted: #22
Redskins vs Cardinals UNDER 47  (1.1 to win 1)

Drew Stanton gets the nod again today against the Redskins after being cleared from his concussion.  I would suspect that one big hit might change that.  The Redskins offense has been beyond bad in the Kirk Cousins era after that first gift game against the Jags.  It must be real nice for this great Cardinals defense to get to feast on this team after last week and the Broncos in Denver. 

Prediction:  Cardinals 23  Redskins 17
 
Legend
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Posted: #23
3-2 isn't bad.

Better quarterback went 5-2 ATS...almost time to just ride with that trend 100%
 
 
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