KC + 8.5 teaser

My second one on KC. 6-0 last two weekends on teaser spreads. All posted.  Gent just posted where Andy Reid is 21-3  during reg season w extra week 31-7  incl playoffs !  Imo the probability of KC getting beat by more than this is very low...unless Mahomes gets hurt.  So, Purdy gonna outplay Mahomes ?? Don't think so.  Look how that D shut down the Ravens w a fabulous game plan...and execution. 

Mahomes,Reid and Spag...what an impressive team .

The Natl Entertainment League wants a close,exciting game... probably down to the wire.  I don't like teasing totals and am not very good at it.  Lost the KC one.  Here again,imo, the Powers want a higher scoring game.  GL to all...remember the most factor thing....risk,money MGMT. 

That is an excellent teaser AKA as a "Wong Teaser," teasing through 3 and 7 to capture very common margins:  3,4,6 and 7.

It makes NO sense to tease a -2.5 team to +3.5 because you only capture one common margin:  3.

Good luck.

Yes, familiar w Wong teasers.Thx. Far from expert. Don't know a darn thing re EV, vig metrics, etc...but  this just makes a lot of sense to me.  Just looking for above avg probability of hit. I trade futures during the day. A probability,trend  game  as such. 

Have read some articles on the gent who originated the original Wong concept.  Turned out quite well.

How is it that you know what an entire league wants?

Psychic.  NEL wants a close,exciting game dude. 

KC + 7.5.    O 41.5

KC + 8.5.     O 41.5

Spread and total appropriate under Wong guidelines. Only potential enhancement would have been for KC to have been on the road as such. Recent data showing best ROI,  value.  Then again would certainly expect very heavy teaser action on KC so, I could be just pissing in the wind.  As there is never a certainty...

@fts1409

 If SF wins it will be by 10+. KC either wins outright or gets blown out. It won't be a close game. 

Parlay:

Alt total OVER 41/Alt spread Chiefs +7.5 (-116) William Hill

(Can also use FD/DK with more juice because you use 40.5)

41 is a key number  

How you can be "6-0 last two weekends on teaser spreads" when you had KC over 37 as one of your teaser spreads last week?

https://www.covers.com/forum/nfl-betting-21/7pt-teaser-four-legs-103815524

I wrote on the sides/ spread legs..and posted here earlier I lost the KC over. Can you not read ?  Didn't say I had won all the teasers...hard to win six when there are only three as such I have posted. 

@saintsfan1977

 Could be. No biggie. Just one speculation among many forthcoming. I'm not a large gambler. Playing smaller helps my process.  Plus,playing with house money which is nice. Allows for greater emotional detachment,indifference...and enjoyment. Frankly,I doubt seriously KC gets beat by 10+. I would assign a low probability to that outcome. But am prepared if perchance it does. 

teaser? well what are the other games you parlayed with it

Yes, you're 100% correct, if SF wins 10 points or more, won't be a close game (kill teaser) or KC wins 

Teasing the over seems to be a popular play in this Super Bowl. KC/over teaser will be the most popular way to play it. I don’t see anyone teasing the under…

Let’s not forget the potential that both teams have on defense. If San Fran can get its shit together on defense like the HC and DC have been calling for this week, this game could turn into a defensive battle. 24-17 or less is a very possible outcome. A weak kicker on the 49ers side could also hurt over bettors. No doubt that either team could explode on offense, but both teams will make running the ball a top priority. I think it will be a challenge for both teams to hit 20 points.

@fts1409

 Okay, I get it.  You haven't won anything and you're a fucking liar.

Whas up Dawgs??  Foolish to bet agst Mahomes in games like this.