King ChUcK MNF Pick

29-17 YTD Record (63%) +10.5 units overall

The over has hit 6 out 7 times when these teams play. But these are different teams, make no mistake. Detroit and GB want to run the football tonight. Rodgers is missing Devontae Adams (again) and they leaned heavily on Aaron Jones last week against the Cowboys. Kerryon had his first true breakout game this year before the bye week for Detroit. Both teams will try to establish the rush game early. Patricia has always been a defensive-minded guru stemming from his days with the Patriots. And this front 7 for Detroit is Nasty... Detroit could have one of the most underrated defenses in the league this year. While they are letting up 280/ yards per game they have faced the likes of Mahlomes, Wentz, and Rivers - and still, have not let up a QB to complete above 60% of passes. Much like Patricia, LaFleur coaching acumen is trending up. He has turned around GB pass defense completely - one that is rated amongst the top in the league against the pass. If you don't know who Jaire Alexander is than I suggest you tune in tonight. Opposing QBs are 18 of 40 throwing his way. In addition, you have a great punter in Scott averaging 48+ yards and converting nearly 40% on the opposing 20-yard line. GB punt return game has been limited (to say the least) with one total yard in 8 returns. 

You add all this together. Two great passing defenses. Serious playmaker injured and out. Two teams who will try and establish the run. This game script is screaming under to me. Not to mention, as many of you know by now, I hate taking public bets especially on primetime. The over is being bet on twice as much. Take the under confidently. Only thing going against stats and overall logic is the history between these two. BOL all. 

DET/GB Under 47  (4 units) 

Thx Guys @BarneysDad @727Magic 

BOL

30-17 YTD +14.5 units 

Passing on TNF tonight. However, we are locking in Chicago Bears -3 right now... don’t want that line jumping to -3.5 or even -4. 

Chicago Bears -3 (4 units) 

@asmth14 

Niners are in a bad spot. Travel across country playing a shit team with not a lot of expectations. Kittle is banged up. If there’s ever a day for a cover Washington at home +10 maybe upwards of 11-12 pts by kickoff sounds solid. Plus WAS is 0-5 it’s last five ATS. Something has gotta give. Water always finds its level but damn this team is bad. Not to mention Chris Thompson coming off Turf toe potentially out for that game. Interesting game to cap, but I’d say initial lean is Washington. This may be a play come Sunday. 

Cowboys are home for SNF. In a tough stretch of 3 games. Lean the boys but would need to look into it more.

Jags @ Cinnci - too early to tell. I don’t know about winning but CIN +4 seems tempting. Like that line. 

Vikings @ Lions is another tough one. I’ve been a big fan of this Lions team since week one. Just like their coaching, Defense and gutsy offense. I really like their Defense even though the stats haven’t really displayed it. Lions have always been a mediocre team, but they are a lot more talented than given credit. I have to say if anything I lean Detroit here. 

**crazy to say but Redskins is probably the best play I see here. Hope this helps.

-KC

Posting Sundays card soon. 

KC