Posted:
#1
SUNDAY
JACKSONVILLE AT BUFFALO:
An opener of Jacksonville -4 has been bet down to -3 or -3.5 depending on where you shop. You have to lay extra juice to get the key number of three at select stores. Josh Allen is now probable to play for the Bills…and the team did get some things done before his injury. Sharps have really soured on Jacksonville. The defense looks like it got tired of carrying Blake Bortles every week. But the Wise Guys will lay the three with the Jags because Buffalo’s overall talent level is still low. Probably a tug-of-war between Jacksonville -3 and Buffalo +3.5 in a game that the public will avoid because of the poor won-lost records.
OAKLAND AT BALTIMORE:
An opener of Baltimore -12 is down to -10.5 with Joe Flacco out for another week. Tough to trust Lamar Jackson as this big a favorite, even if Oakland is awful this season. Old school Sharps in particular were happy to take +12 early and +11 after the first move. They want every double-digit dog they can get in the NFL. Here they could bet early because the public probably wasn’t going to lay such a big number with a rookie QB. Nobody’s tested -10 yet figuring squares WOULD come in on the key number.
SAN FRANCISCO AT TAMPA BAY:
We’ve been painted Tampa Bay -3 all week, but the juice is changing depending on action. It went from Tampa Bay -125 at the field goal, all the way to San Francisco -115 at the field goal. So, Sharps clearly like this dog vs. a favorite that can’t settle on a quarterback and has a horrible defense. Should the line drop to TB -2.5, we’d see a lot of teaser play on SF, lifting the number up to +8.5. Sports books don’t want to create that middle where favorite money starts to come in at -2.5 while teaser dogs get both the three and the seven.
NY GIANTS AT PHILADELPHIA:
The first number up offshore was Philadelphia -7. Stragglers opened at -6 because all the early money was on the Giants. We’re now seeing -5.5 because that trend has continued. New York has won two in a row, and is playing better overall. Philadelphia is falling apart because of defensive injuries…and there’s a chance defenses have figured out how to slow down the Eagles offense. Nothing yet to trigger enthusiastic Philly money. Sharps like this dog at +6 or better.
JACKSONVILLE AT BUFFALO:
An opener of Jacksonville -4 has been bet down to -3 or -3.5 depending on where you shop. You have to lay extra juice to get the key number of three at select stores. Josh Allen is now probable to play for the Bills…and the team did get some things done before his injury. Sharps have really soured on Jacksonville. The defense looks like it got tired of carrying Blake Bortles every week. But the Wise Guys will lay the three with the Jags because Buffalo’s overall talent level is still low. Probably a tug-of-war between Jacksonville -3 and Buffalo +3.5 in a game that the public will avoid because of the poor won-lost records.
OAKLAND AT BALTIMORE:
An opener of Baltimore -12 is down to -10.5 with Joe Flacco out for another week. Tough to trust Lamar Jackson as this big a favorite, even if Oakland is awful this season. Old school Sharps in particular were happy to take +12 early and +11 after the first move. They want every double-digit dog they can get in the NFL. Here they could bet early because the public probably wasn’t going to lay such a big number with a rookie QB. Nobody’s tested -10 yet figuring squares WOULD come in on the key number.
SAN FRANCISCO AT TAMPA BAY:
We’ve been painted Tampa Bay -3 all week, but the juice is changing depending on action. It went from Tampa Bay -125 at the field goal, all the way to San Francisco -115 at the field goal. So, Sharps clearly like this dog vs. a favorite that can’t settle on a quarterback and has a horrible defense. Should the line drop to TB -2.5, we’d see a lot of teaser play on SF, lifting the number up to +8.5. Sports books don’t want to create that middle where favorite money starts to come in at -2.5 while teaser dogs get both the three and the seven.
NY GIANTS AT PHILADELPHIA:
The first number up offshore was Philadelphia -7. Stragglers opened at -6 because all the early money was on the Giants. We’re now seeing -5.5 because that trend has continued. New York has won two in a row, and is playing better overall. Philadelphia is falling apart because of defensive injuries…and there’s a chance defenses have figured out how to slow down the Eagles offense. Nothing yet to trigger enthusiastic Philly money. Sharps like this dog at +6 or better.
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