Long term martingale ATS?

When was the last time a team went completely defeated 0-17 (or 16) ATS?

Hypothetically - If we start after game one, place one unit on every team that started 0-1 ATS, then doubled the following week on the teams that are 0-2 ATS etc. is this not a “guaranteed” 16 units a season?

obviously - like any martingale - a large bankroll would be needed, but it can be minimized to one team for a “guaranteed” 1 unit season long.

I know guarantee is a ridiculous word but in my limited research I couldn’t find an nfl team that went 0-16 ATS in the last 20 years 

I guess vig could be an issue? Unless you increase wager to cover ?

apart from being impractical for us degenerates, am I overlooking something here? 

Actually, good point!

And a large BR is not really needed since one could simply bet small stakes from the gitgo just for the fun of it.

We will make the assumption here that once each team does eventually cover ATS then one stops betting that team further and pockets the small profit.

Interesting. 

to be blunt and short any chase system is going to fail it's not if you lose but when you lose and this thing you came up with is NOT a martingale or labby

and it's not worth it

yes, it’s not exactly a martingale - but it would be a negative progression system. But no, they don’t always fail. It’s bankroll dependent.

I could use a negative progression system on betting the Texans ML while dogs - doubling my wager until it hit for the next 30 years and it would work… unless of course the earth ceased to exist in that time frame.

Assuming we had $100 units, and our last team of the season battling to get an ATS win is 0-9, obviously it wouldn’t be practical for most of us to drop 50k to get our unit back 

its a little thought experiment and I realize  it can be done with anything over a long period of time. Just thought it would be interesting to use the accuracy of the linemakers against themselves (which historically would have a 100% win rate over the pre-determined one season) rather than choosing another guideline arbitrarily with no historic “guarantee” 

I guess, if you play via 1st half and 2nd half. You would have better results as a system. i don´t have any numbers, but I´ve tried it on some teams last year. GL  

I will be watching this system closely.

@puds

 This is very interesting. What would your units increments be?

@spicycurry

 I guess for the sake of tracking let’s do 100  base adding vig 

let’s track! No play on two 0-1 ATS teams playing each other meaning we won’t get to 16 units on the season if this comes out on top

I’m not actually playing these if it isn’t obvious - and lines would’ve been better at open, oh well.

Pats +3 - 110 to win 100

Seahawks +4.5 - 110 to win 100

Bills -8 - 110 to win 100

Giants -5 - 110 to win 100

Steelers +2.5 - 110 to win 100

Bengals -3 - 120 to win 100

Bears +2.5 - 105 to win 100

Vikings +6 - 110 to win 100

Chiefs -3.5 - 110 to win 100

Chargers - 3 - 100 to win 100

let me know if I missed any!

who will be the last team we sweat to win ATS? 

wellmy crystal ball...timemachine dont tellanyonnnne..

jags 17-0...honest jim...

cousins prime time a better bet....

Let’s make it more interesting

after week 2 we will fade undefeated teams against non-winless teams ATS 

No team in at least the last 20 years has gone undefeated ATS as well 

This is over - both ways… no undefeated teams ats and no defeated teams ats - only took until week 8

free units annually

Until it isnt.

What you going to do if two teams havent covered going into last game? Even though last games are divisional...they could've pushed the last time they played each other. 

very true, but most people on this forum are in love with trends… something that’s hit 100% over a quarter century and probably even longer… seems decent 

I think the linesmakers are sharper than anyone on this site long term 

seems clever to use it against ‘em

ill run this for a couple shekels next year 

you kiss your ass goodbye… but what are the odds!!!

you are looking at things from the wrong side.

Bookies want you to double up losses. Gambling has a negative expected return, always.

want to beat the book? double up wins.

Always stop at 3.

100 brings you 200 brings you 400 brings you 800

8x1 odds, better than a 3 team parlay. Understand the odds, and your angle.