LV Super Contest Week 14

Question

Another bad week, my picks were 2-0, partner 0-3.

rudy22 · Answer

Another bad week, my picks were 2-0, partner 0-3.

rudy22 · Answer

I keep telling myself that

rudy22 · Answer

Our picks are in. We are rolling with the Cardinals -8.5 Thursday night.

BainMasters · Answer

Rudy22 a lot of props for maintaining this thread even when struggling. I can imagine it&#x27;s hard to find the motivation to do so. I&#x27;m sure I&#x27;m not the only one who checks the thread weekly for ideas and angles.

BainMasters · Answer

I&#x27;m on the Cardinals tonight as well. I don&#x27;t usually play Thursday games due to the inherent challenge of picking the other 4 games w/o a full week of analysis including practice/injury reports but I thought the situational analysis across the board this week lined up for taking this calculated risk. The cluster injuries to Minnesota&#x27;s defense being the largest factor for me, along with the short turnaround really gives the impression that this is a momentum situation w/ ARI and against MIN. Not only cluster injuries but we&#x27;re talking pro-bowlers at each level of the defense. It&#x27;s just difficult to mix and match within a 4 day turnaround and then have everyone on the same page come game time which includes travel. I really see 1 way that Vikings can stay close in this game and it requires multiple factors to work.1) They have to win Special Teams/field position. The offense is not efficient enough to drive 80 yards and score TD&#x27;s consistently.2) They have to break tendencies and throw on 1st down in the short, intermediate areas &#x2B; run AP on 2nd and 3rd downs. Currently Warren Sharp charted Vikings as running 60%&#x2B; of the time on 1st down this season. 3) They have to shorten the game and convert 3rd downs. Since week 10 they&#x27;ve been about league average ~39%. Unfortunately for them ARI has been converting at ~47% over the same period.4) They have to get off the field defensively on 3rd down. Unfortunately for them again, since week 10 they&#x27;ve allowed opponents to convert at a 50% clip (6th worst), while ARI has been league best at ~17% conversions. 5) They have to score TD&#x27;s when they get to the Red Zone. On the season MIN has the 2nd fewest TD conversions (13). ARI has had the 4th most (29).

BainMasters · Answer

Credit Vikings. They literally accomplished exactly what I thought they wouldn't be able to. They converted 3rd downs, played ball control, stuffed Cardinals on multiple 3rd and short situations and scored 2 TD's to keep pace with Arizona.

For Arizona it's another prime situation where they've underperformed the betting market expectations. That puts the highest scoring team in the league at 2-4 ATS in situations where they are favored by 6+ points.

Vikings also used ARI defensive blitz tendencies against them for easy throws underneath. Their blitzing was as predictable as AP 1st down runs.

I had a feeling this Cardinals team may be overrated from a betting market sense but after tonight I'm sure of it. Good team, definitely the class of the NFC but against a motivated/organized team they struggle no matter where it is.

totallypsycho · Answer

this contest is pretty much all coin flips now.

last year i definitely knew all my winners were the right side, and sometimes even with 10+ points to spare

this year i have to nick and scratch at every single goddamn point. even the winners are coming down to a single fg(and hey, if they miss it, tough garbage, as i've gone 0-3 in fg games without a single break)

i have to work twice as hard for half the return this year

should i even bother next year. idk

MrWhatsItToYa · Answer

3-2 last week,32-32-1 for the year.This weeks picks&#xD;&#xA;Pitt &#x2B;2.5&#xD;&#xA;Chi-3&#xD;&#xA;Indy PK&#xD;&#xA;NewEng-3&#xD;&#xA;Sea -6.5&#xD;&#xA;Good luck to everyone.

zooyorkinc · Answer

Strategy question.  Do you take Seattle -6x because everyone else will or do you try to make up ground somewhere else and pray for Baltimore to cover?

WizardOfOdd · Answer

just look at that line, you are getting 6.5 as what its at now, which is about 12.5  i wouldnt pass up that value

Rallycaps · Answer

VICEROY 38-25-2Brutal week last week, 1-4.Anyways, first off ZOO ask yourself do you like Seattle -12.5? Obviously if yes, then you play. I understand, -6.5 is a tremendous line for Seattle. But, at this stage of the contest unsure you have to take it for the sake of taking it.Guys near the top probably do, however, think of it this way.By fading the game or taking Baltimore &#x2B;6.5 and covering it&#x27;s essentially a sixth game. If you fade, and win your "5th game", and Baltimore covers &#x2B;6.5. Assuming a large percent do take Seattle, you kind of gained two on the field. Baltimore without playing them can almost be considered a 6th (free) pick.I don&#x27;t advise taking them, if 1. You don&#x27;t feel confident in Seattle -6.5, 2. Because everyone else is taking them.Unsure how you are doing in the contest but if you feel you have some ground to make up, I advise fading the game, and almost using Baltimore as a free play on the field. Again assuming Seattle is a top consensus play.Hope this makes sense, and/or helps.Good Luck.

vanzack · Answer

QPRHoops 30-353.  Bengals -2.510.  49ers &#x2B;1.511.  Bears -319.  Colts PK24.  Texans &#x2B;3In full disclosure - I didnt even notice the Seahawks line for the contest.I second the thank you to Rudy for doing this thread every week.GL all

vanzack · Answer

Personal story on the "should I take the Seahawks" debate....

In 2013 I was sitting about 10th heading to the last week. The packers were playing the bears, and there was one of these totally messed up lines (like the seahawks this week).

I decided to not include the Packers at the greatly reduced line - because I knew everyone else would include them.

The game was close, but in the end the Packers covered, and the game I included lost.

That cost me about 35k.

Rallycaps · Answer

Ya,Like i said, depends where you are in the standings if you aren&#x27;t confident on the game in the first place. If I am 10th, I take seattle this week.I am T89 and think I am still taking them. However, I also like the line.But I feel ya ZACK.

mafia13 · Answer

sf   GL Van

footballsmart · Answer

Like many, I gagged on the Cardinals when I thought that -8.5 looked so good. So I enter Sunday with one foot in the hole and overall 32-32-2. I do like my remaining picks, courtesy of the system, but that probably means they are wrong :-) ... here goes:

Buffalo, Detroit, Jacksonville, San Francisco .... and over in a smaller contest I substituted Carolina for Jax. Thoughts?

Thanks for posting Rudy. None of us are poised in win this year, so might as well just have fun competing with the remaining few weeks, and that 3 week contest requires that you basically win 15 straight. The odds of that happening are extremely small. Start with 3% odds to go 5-0, and then keep cutting 3 in half 10 more times and those are your chances. It works out to a 3 in 100,000 chance, or 1 in about 33,000. If you think that will happen, just keep on smoking those funny pipes. But we'll all try :-)

Da_Contrarian · Answer

38-26-1SeahawksBrownsBearsCowboysJags32-32-1SeahawksBucsCowboysBearsTexansGL to all

rudy22 · Answer

So we lost on the Cardinals not holding a ten point lead. Here are the rest of our picks.Bengals Lions Pat&#x27;s  Seahawks

ad1260 · Answer

Best thread on Covers on a week-to-week basis.

LV Super Contest Week 14

Hot Forum Topics