Miami Dolphins +1 (30 units to win 28.57)
Stepping out a bit here and for two reasons, 1) I really like the Fins tonight, and 2) I really like Sunday’s card and feel even with a loss tonight, I feel good about profiting for the week. So, I’ll take a shot. The Buffalo Bills return home after a valiant effort against the high octane NE Patriots where they fell short in their upset bid losing 37-31 and dropping their record to 3-6. The Bills did a lot of things well, one of which was running the football effectively. In their 9 games this season, the Bills have faced three teams who have held their opponents on average to less than 100 yards per game. Those teams are San Francisco, Houston and New England who they played twice and tonight Miami becomes the 4th team to join this club. In the four games against defenses holding opponents under 100 yards per game, Buffalo has rushed for an average of 105 yards, much of that damage coming last week where they got 162 yards vs. the Patriots. In the three previous games, Buffalo rushed for 98, 89 and 74 yards. In the 5 games against opponents who allow more than 100 yards, the Bills have rushed for an average of 173 yards. Miami has held opponents to an average of 94 yards on the ground and for better or worse the Bills will be without the services of Fred Jackson tonight. Another thing the Miami defense does well is limit the stats of opposing QBs. This season, opposing QBs have an 80.1 QB rating against the Miami defense. Ryan Fitzpatrick, who will go at the Fins defense tonight, basically feasts on the poor defense and struggles with the good units. In four games this season against teams who have held QBs to a rating under 85, Fitzpatrick’s actual rating has been 69. In these games he has thrown 3 touchdowns against 4 interceptions. In the other five games against defense where QBs have a rating higher than 85, Fitzpatrick holds a 103.7 rating and has thrown 14 touchdowns against 6 interceptions. Lastly, and this one shouldn’t carry too much merit, but since 2008 the Buffalo Bills are 1-4 in the week following a game against NE where they covered the spread. In the following game, Buffalo is being outscored 28-19. It could be that they put all their energy into trying to beat the Pats and though they put up a good fight, they exert so much energy that the next game is a big let down. Who knows. We will see how that plays out tonight. It’s real simple for the Dolphins tonight. Stop the run and win the turnover battle and they will win this game. In every game this year where Miami won the turnover margin, they have won the game. In the wins, they are +4. In the losses, they are -10. Playing right into that game plan are the Buffalo Bills who have a -10 turnover margin on the year. Only the Kansas City Chiefs have turned the ball over more than the Buffalo Bills. Take away the two bookend games for the Dolphins and conceivably Miami could be 7-2. They have three losses by a combined 9 points, two of which went into OT.
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